Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has owned the Buffalo Bills in his three career playoff matchups with them and will go for history today at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game.
Looking at the Patrick Mahomes odds, oddsmakers also expect a big game from him. However, we found one market that offers substantial value.
Here are my top NFL picks for Mahomes and the Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 26.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Best bet
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions
(-120 at BetMGM) - SGP pick
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions
Josh Allen Over 47.5 rushing yards
Keon Coleman Over 18.5 receiving yards
Over 48.5 receiving yards
(+750 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 3-0 against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in his playoff career. No starting quarterback in the history of the NFL has ever defeated another starting quarterback in the playoffs four times.
However, there are some nice matchups here that favor Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against this Bills defense.
Mahomes completed a career-high 83.6% of his quick passes this season, which led the NFL. In his last three games, he has averaged a 2.47 second time to throw. He did not throw a single interception in any of those three contests.
Meanwhile, the Bills allow the fourth-highest completion percentage and eighth-highest success rate on quick passes this season.
Not only has Mahomes not thrown an interception in the past three games, but he has also not thrown one since that Week 11 regular season matchup with these Bills.
Both interceptions he threw in that contest were on deep passes, with both throws to “open” receivers – meaning they had at least three yards of separation at the time of the pass.
Mahomes is not going to make those mistakes this time around. In his three playoff games with the Bills, he has a 75.2% completion percentage with eight touchdowns to no interceptions.
I expect Mahomes to utilize that quick passing game again and stay out of the turnover column.
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Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions
Josh Allen Over 47.5 rushing yards
Keon Coleman Over 18.5 receiving yards
Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 receiving yards
Starting with our best bet with Mahomes, we will add three other player props to our same game parlay.
Josh Allen has always been a great scrambler, but he especially likes to take off on designed pass plays against the Chiefs. Allen has taken off on 10.4% of dropbacks in his career against the Chiefs compared to just 7.0% against all other opponents.
Allen has surpassed this rushing total in each of his three playoff games against KC and in the regular season game earlier this season.
Keon Coleman loves playing against press coverage, and the Chiefs love to play press coverage. Coleman had 351 yards against press coverage this season, which is the seventh most in the NFL. The Chiefs pressed their outside corners on 51.5% of their snaps this season, which was the most in the NFL.
I really like Coleman to get at least one catch off beating a corner off the press and this number is low enough that it may only take one.
Finally, I like Xavier Worthy to surpass his receiving total as well. Worthy has been much more heavily targeted on short throws and especially ones behind the line of scrimmage in recent weeks.
The Bill's defense allowed the second-most receiving yards on throws behind the line of scrimmage this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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