Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are in a tough spot Sunday afternoon in a loud setting with possibly poor passing conditions, and Conference Championship odds have labeled the Baltimore Ravens as favorites.
Their defense could also be spending a ton of time on the field, cutting into the overall play volume from the visiting offense. The Chiefs may not be at the bottom of the Super Bowl odds, but this matchup is a good indication why they aren't at the top.
With a completion total of 24.5 and the books implying a 67% completion rate with a normal-to-high attempt total of 36.5, is there value in fading the media darling with multiple indicators pointing the Under?
After taking a look at Patrick Mahomes' odds, these are my favorite NFL picks surrounding the K.C. signal caller come January 28.
Be sure to also check out our NFL odds page to monitor line movement before the game, and don't miss Chiefs vs. Ravens picks and predictions and Travis Kelce prop picks!
Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship prop pick
Under 24.5 completions (-115 at bet365)
Patrick Mahomes will play his second road playoff game (outside of the Super Bowl) this Sunday in a tough environment in Baltimore. It was a setting that made the Houston offense look silly last week as it took six false starts and a delay-of-game penalty.
Not only will the communication be an issue in a loud M&T Bank Stadium, but the play volume should be a concern for the Kansas City Chiefs who ran just 47 plays and lost the possession game 23 minutes to 37 last week. The Chiefs' defense couldn’t get off the field and allowed nine first downs on 17 third- and fourth-down attempts
So how does this affect Mahomes? It’s tough to expect another high-volume game from the passing offense, which is a blow to his pass attempt and completion markets.
Mahomes’ completion market is at a hefty 24.5 with THE BLITZ projecting just 22.5 completions, and that’s with a large projection of 38 total passes. That's a 60% completion rate from the model which is Baltimore’s average on the season, but if the pass volume is lower, that Under 24.5 completions could look a lot like last week where Mahomes had just 17.
The Baltimore Ravens may have the best defense Patty has seen all season, as the only Top 10 defense in success rate the Chiefs have faced since Week 5 was the Patriots in Week 15. They’ve seen five Bottom 10 defenses in success rate over that stretch as well. Starting corner Marlon Humphrey has also returned to practice but in a limited fashion.
The Ravens also led the league in sacks but blitzed at the eighth-lowest rate, meaning Mahomes will see pressure but also seven men in coverage. Mahomes ranks seventh in clean-pocket completion percentage (70.5%) and 18th in completion rate when facing pressure at 54.1%.
Kansas City might not run a ton of plays vs. a very slow Baltimore offense that can eat the clock — especially late. The weather isn’t perfect with projected rain and double-digit winds, and the rain is starting to look heavier as Sunday approaches.
There are enough things working against Mahomes to make his Under 24.5 completions at -115 my best bet. Over Baltimore’s last 10 games, only two starters have topped this number — 25 completions from Trevor Lawrence in Week 15 and 29 completions from Justin Herbert in Week 12.
Prop: Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 pass completions (-115 at bet365)
Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship same-game parlay
Under 24.5 completions
Over 36.5 pass attempts
+1,200 at bet365
Let me introduce you to the world of betting against two props with positive correlation. These bets are working against each other but the hidden multiplier I'm getting here is great, especially when I think the completions is too high and THE BLITZ is showing value on both plays.
The distance between these two numbers (implied completion percentage) is too short in this setting with the weather and how good this Baltimore defense is. The Chiefs pass at one of the highest volumes so the pass attempts — which is the less probable of the two plays — has a decent chance of coming through.
This correlated parlay has hit in four of Mahomes' starts this year at those totals and in two of Baltimore's last six matches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
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