Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props for Week 6: Broncos Can't Stand Pat

Even after losing on banner night in Week 1, Patrick Mahomes odds have remained a popular target, and the Chiefs have turned things around, stringing together four wins. That includes last week, during which Mahomes went 31-for-41 for 281 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 27-20 win. 

This week, the Chiefs return to the national spotlight, hosting the Denver Broncos for an AFC West Thursday Night Football odds showdown. Denver's defense has been spotty at best this year, potentially opening things up for an explosive performance from the two-time MVP and Super Bowl winner.

Will Mahomes light up the box score again in Week 6, or will the elevated divisional stakes make room for a more competitive environment?

Continue reading my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions for Patrick Mahomes on October 11, and you can also find more great bets for tonight with our TNF prop picks and Russell Wilson odds and props spotlight. 

Patrick Mahomes Week 6 prop picks

• Mahomes o268.5 passing yards
• Mahomes o268.5 passing yards/Rice o29.5 receiving yards/Kelce u6.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Week 6 prop pick

Mahomes Over 268.5 passing yards (-110)

Since entering the league, Patrick Mahomes has owned the Denver Broncos. In fact, Mahomes has yet to lose to the Broncos across 11 games and has averaged 269 yards per game and has posted an 18:8 TD:INT ratio while completing 66% of his passes.

The results have been even better at home, having posted 300+ yard performances in four of his five home games against Denver. And this year's iteration of the Broncos' defense is much worse than years past, lining up the stars for a potentially truly special Thursday Night performance from Mahomes.

Denver has already allowed Sam Howell to put up 299 yards and two touchdowns and Justin Fields to put up another 335 passing yards and four touchdowns — two quarterbacks who have had largely subpar results against any other defense. And then of course there were the 70 points they allowed to the Dolphins, with Tua Tagovailoa putting up another 300+ yards and four touchdowns.

Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Patrick Mahomes Week 6 same-game parlay

Mahomes Over 268.5 passing yards

Rice Over 29.5 receiving yards

Kelce Under 6.5 receptions

50% boost available

+575 +862 at DraftKings

The Chiefs' wide receiver room has been a mess over the course of the season, with no real standout receivers taking convincing control of the snap and target share. But second-round rookie Rashee Rice has seen a modest share of the action in all but one week. He’s logged five or more targets in all but one game, and he has accumulated 29 or more receiving yards in those four contests (totals of 29, 32, 33, and 59 to be exact).

Second-year receiver Skyy Moore has seen a decrease in his snap percentage in two consecutive weeks and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has not been earning targets at a reliable clip, failing to log more than two targets in all but one game. That could potentially point to an increased role for Rice in the coming weeks, and a matchup against this porous Denver defense would be the perfect time to show out.

Someone who may see the opposite amount of involvement directionally is Travis Kelce, who sustained an ankle injury last week and carries a Questionable designation as of Wednesday afternoon Kelce's reception total of 6.5 is a bit rich not only given his injury, but also his track record against the Broncos.

Kelce has logged seven or more receptions just once in his last four games against Denver and just three times in his last nine. Given the short week and the plus matchup, Andy Reid may opt to limit Kelce's involvement in an effort to get him up to full speed for Week 7 and onwards.

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