Patrick Mahomes Odds and Props for Week 7: Patty Will Struggle With High Passing Yard Total

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1 and winners of five straight, but the wins along the way have been dicey, and the offense has not exactly played to the established expectations from years past. 

After only beating the Broncos, Vikings, and Jets by a combined 21 points in the last three weeks, there have been some growing vocalized concerns about the legitimacy of the Chiefs' record and their standing as one of the league's best teams.

Can Patrick Mahomes string together a more Mahomes-esque performance in Week 7 against the Los Angeles Chargers in a key AFC West matchup? I've taken a look at some Patrick Mahomes odds and have come up with my favorite NFL picks centered around the superstar.

Be sure to also check out our Chargers vs. Chiefs game preview!

Patrick Mahomes Week 7 prop picks

• Under 285.5 passing yds
• Under 279.5 passing yds/Kelce Over 73.5 rec yds/Pachdco Over 14.5 rec yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes Week 7 prop pick

Under 285.5 passing yards (-115)

Patrick Mahomes filled the stat sheet last week, going 30-for-40 for 306 yards and a touchdown. Now in a vacuum, those numbers look impressive, but as we noted in last week's spotlight Mahomes had had an extensive track record when it came to beating down on the Broncos... especially at home.

To his credit, he beat his passing yardage prop last week (270.5 close) but that was actually the first time he had gone Over that prop in seven games. And he faces a larger number this week (as high as 285.5 at some books) yet is facing a team he has been underwhelming against.

In nine career games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Mahomes has averaged just 265.7 passing yards per game and a median of 256. And strangely enough (and unlike his splits against the Broncos), he has been much worse at Arrowhead against the Chargers.

He has never once topped 260 passing yards and has averaged just 228 in those contests, posting a 70% completion percentage just once in those four games. In fact, he has posted a 70% completion percentage just once in his nine total games against the Chargers.

Prop: Under 285.5 passing yards (-115 at Pointsbet)

Patrick Mahomes Week 7 same-game parlay

Mahomes Under 279.5 passing yds

Kelce Over 73.5 rec yds

Pacheco Over 14.5 rec yds

+950 at DraftKings

One of the easiest ways to get really good same-game parlay odds is to take one side of a quarterback's passing yardage total but then take the opposite side of a pass catcher's receiving yardage total.

To capitalize on that in this Week 7 matchup, I'm looking at Travis Kelce. The tight end has gone for 100+ yards in three of his last four games against the Chargers and even posted another 90-yard game the game prior to that.

The Chargers are also allowing the tenth-most yards to tight ends this year, which adds to the value proposition. But on top of that, they're also allowing the tenth-most receiving yards to running backs this season.

Isaiah Pacheco's receiving prop is set as low as 14.5 at some books, and he has eclipsed that mark in four of the Chiefs' six games this year. Just last game he posted six receptions for 36 yards, indicating he may potentially be earning more work in the passing game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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