Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have handled business thus far, taking down the AFC North's Ravens and Bengals. This week, Mahomes will travel to take on Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. Can Mahomes lift the Chiefs to a 3-0 start?
Continue reading for my look at the Patrick Mahomes odds and see why my NFL picks believe he'll be far from perfect through the air on Sunday, September 22.
Patrick Mahomes SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
(-150 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Drake London Under 62.5 receiving yards
Tyler Allgeier Over 23.5 rushing yards
(+475 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes SNF prop pick
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-150 at bet365)
My analysis
Regular season or postseason, Patrick Mahomes can get the job done, there is no question about that. His 78.4% career win percentage (including the playoffs) thus far is better than even the likes of Tom Brady (74.7%), Peyton Manning (68.6%), and Aaron Rodgers (64.6%).
No one is doubting his ability to win. But one thing about his betting market that is a bit deflated due to the win-heavy outcomes of his games is the likelihood that he'll throw an interception.
Mahomes is also an undeniably all-time great downfield passer, but those kinds of passes naturally lend to an elevated risk of turnovers. In his 98 regular season games with the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes has thrown an interception in 50 of them (51%).
But that rate has been even worse as of late. He has three in just two games this year, and threw one in 12 of his 16 games last year (75%). In years past this prop used to be around even money for both sides, and this year his market has seemingly corrected a bit. But there is still some meat left on the bone.
Patrick Mahomes SNF same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Drake London Under 62.5 receiving yards
Tyler Allgeier Over 23.5 rushing yards
Looking at the Atlanta Falcons side, one player that may have a rough Sunday night is Drake London. He will get the displeasure of matching up against a Chiefs' secondary that has allowed just 8.5 total receptions to opposing wide receivers per game.
They've allowed just 95 yards per game to opposing receivers, including just 45.5 yards to the opposing WR1. Last year they allowed just 49.4 to WR1s, the second-lowest mark in the league.
One Falcon who may see a better Sunday than the market suggests is Tyler Allgeier, who has been extremely efficient with his carries thus far. After recording 21 yards on just three carries after an offseason and camp full of quotes about him still having a tangible role, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson committed to a more balanced approach.
Then on Monday night, Allgeier was called upon for nine carries and took them for 53 yards (5.9 YPC). Allgeier's rushing total sits at 24.5, a number that is just three yards higher than last week's. And while the Chiefs field a much better run defense, the lack of a tangible week-over-week adjustment leaves enough room here for Allgeier to still go Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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