It’s been a while since the Buffalo Bills weren’t staring at Tom Brady across the line when facing the rival New England Patriots. But Buffalo has got to like what it sees in Week 8, with this Cam Newton-led New England offense sputtering for a collective 28 points the past three games.
The NFL betting odds have the Bills -3.5 for this AFC East grudge match, with Buffalo coming off a sloppy win over the Jets and the Patriots losing their third game in a row last Sunday.
Check out our NFL free picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Bills on November 1.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills betting preview
Weather
There's a 40 percent chance of rain come kickoff but the big factor will be the winds in Orchard Park, blowing WSW up to 40 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Patriots: Julian Edelman WR (Out), N'Keal Harry WR (Out), Stephon Gilmore CB (Out).
Bills: Josh Norman CB (Out), Cody Ford T (Out), Micah Hyde S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-2 in Bills’ last seven home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bills.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Bills have had the power sucked out of their offense in recent weeks, watching their output drop from 30.75 points averaged in the opening four games to a combined 51 points in the last three outings.
The passing game has fallen off the pace, picking up only six yards per attempt in that span, and QB Josh Allen has watched his dream season turn sour with four touchdowns to three interceptions and a passer rating just below 81.0 in those three contests.
The Bills ground game hasn’t been able to offset those struggles (picking up gains against the Jets isn’t convincing anyone) and may not have the chops to exploit a New England defense that’s been rolled over for big yardage on the ground the last two weeks.
The Patriots have allowed a total of 332 yards on the ground the previous two games, which has in turn given Cam Newton and the offense just over 49 minutes with the football. New England has trailed at the half in both games and due to playing behind with limited touches, this playbook has become very one-dimensional. Stop units have been able to key in on defending the pass, which has manifested itself in five INTs the past two games.
Newton is under fire from pretty much everywhere, with shithead media members blaming Cam’s struggles on his pregame outfit planning and rumors swirling that backup Jarrett Stidham is one interception away from bumping him out of the No. 1 spot. Even Newton himself has said a lot of it is in his head.
However, if New England can avoid going down early, then Josh McDaniels’ playbook stays open and Newton and this attack can do what they do best: keep defenses guessing with option runs and play action. Buffalo has been a slow starter over the past three games, so the opportunity is there for the Pats and we like that added half-point hook on the underdog.
PREDICTION: New England +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total for this AFC East rivalry opened at 45 points and dropped quickly to 44.5 with early money on the Under, given the two struggling offenses involved.
In order for New England to generate any momentum on offense, it needs to get Cam going. This doesn’t have to be big gains but just positive numbers from an offense that has averaged just 4.9 yards per play over the last three outings.
The best method for movement is the rushing attack, which still picked up 4.2 yards per carry in the blowout loss to San Francisco and ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per carry on the season. Buffalo is among the bottom in the league when it comes to slowing the ground game and has allowed some massive rushing performances, with five of its seven opponents rushing for 99 yards or more.
Offensively, the Bills’ big play offense is nowhere to be found. Allen is struggling to connect with his top targets and home-run hitter Stefon Diggs has seen his production plummet from 403 total yards/11.5 yards per target in the first four games to just 200 yards/5.7 yards per target over the last three results.
The weather for Orchard Park could also slow down things a touch, with the extended forecast calling for a chance of rain and strong winds blowing up to 20 mph.
PREDICTION: Under 44.5 (-110)
First-quarter pick
New England can ill afford to trail early on in this game, which has been a problem for an offense that has scored only one touchdown in the opening frame all season. That’s it. One.
New England has gone scoreless on its five other first-quarter showings, including four straight goose eggs in the first 15 minutes since Week 3. As mentioned, the Bills have been slow out of the blocks offensively in recent games, scoring just 10 first-quarter points over the last three contests.
With two subdued offenses trying to find their way, a low-scoring first frame is on tap Sunday.
PREDICTION: First-quarter Under 9.5 (-140)
Patriots vs Bills betting card
- New England +3.5 (-110)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- First-quarter Under 9.5 (-140)
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