Patriots vs Broncos SNF Prop Bets: Elliott Presents Dual Threat

Prop bet #1: Waning Williams

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams has been a steady presence in the Broncos lineup, but he has a difficult matchup Sunday against the NFL’s second-best rushing defense.

The New England Patriots have allowed one opposing running back to gain 100+ in a single game this season and surrender an average of  77.94 rushing yards to running backs per game.

Williams has been a mainstay in the Denver backfield this season, accounting for 48.5% of the Broncos' rushing attempts. Still, he’s only cleared 54.5 rushing yards in five of his 13 matchups and has failed to exceed 54.5 yards in three of his last five.

The Patriots rushing defense smothers opposing running backs and is as legit against the run as there is in the league. Over their last three matchups, the Pats allowed 43 rushing yards to the Kansas City Chiefs and 82 at Pittsburgh. New England also limited New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley to 46 yards in a three-point game at MetLife Stadium.

Williams has been a mainstay in the Broncos' backfield, but he’s sharing that backfield with two others and won’t get enough attempts to clear the number. 54.5 rushing yards is too many for Javonte Williams odds against the Patriots' rushing defense.

Javonte Williams prop: Under 54.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Trautman hooks a pair

Russell Wilson may not produce the sexy stats he once did while in Seattle, but he’s thrown the ball better than last season. The Pats’ rushing defense is legit, and I believe he’ll throw the ball more often than some would have us believe. Adam Trautman odds should be the beneficiary on Sunday.

Trautman may be fifth on the team in targets (31), but he’s averaging nearly two receptions per game at home this season and has eclipsed 1.5 receptions in five of his 13 games, with three of those instances occurring at home.

The Pats' defense has been stingy against opposing tight ends, limiting them to 4.21 receptions per game, but over the past four weeks, that number has spiked to an average of 5.5 receptions per game. The New England linebacker room has been severely limited due to injuries and should give Trautman some additional pass-catching opportunities.

Finally, Trautman averages nearly two receptions per game at home, facing a Patriots defense stout against the run, but regressing in their passing defense against tight ends. Wilson will need to move the ball somehow, and I expect him to look to Trautman as a short-yardage solution against the stout Patriots' defense. Trautman has been targeted 11 times over the last five, and I like him to go over 1.5 receptions.

Adam Trautman prop: Over 1.5 receptions (+150 at PointsBet)

Prop bet #3: Zeke zaps Broncos 

New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out for this tilt. During Stevenson's absence, the Pats have leaned heavily on veteran running back Ezekiel Elliot, and the former Dallas Cowboys running back has delivered for New England.

Elliot has hauled in 20 passes over his last five games and a dozen over the previous two. Elliot has become a go-to guy for Pats signal-caller Bailey Zappe over the past two weeks, and we should expect this trend to continue on Sunday.

The Broncos defense has struggled at times and allows a season average of 5.07 receptions per game to running backs. That number has dipped to 3.07 receptions over the last four weeks, which is a good thing, but Zappe leans heavily on Elliot, and the Pats running back has seen his passing role consistently increase.

Finally, Elliot has taken the lion's share of snaps with Stevenson on the shelf. The Broncos' passing defense has been mediocre and running backs have had much success catching balls out of the backfield against Denver. He's cleared this prop in two of his last three and I like the Ezekiel Elliott odds to go Over 30.5 receiving yards.

Ezekiel Elliott prop: Over 30.5 receiving yards (+100 at bet365)