The Arizona Cardinals come out of their bye healthier ahead of their prime-time showdown with the New England Patriots and their dysfunctional offense.
With New England tough to run against and the Arizona pass-catchers getting healthy, will Kyler Murray play a bigger role than his passing yards are indicating?
Find out in my favorite NFL player props for Monday Night Football’s battle between the Patriots and Cardinals. Be sure to also check out our MNF full-game betting preview along with our three favorite James Conner spotlight props!
Patriots vs Cardinals props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
Patriots vs Cardinals MNF props
Throwing Parker
Jakobi Myers has officially been ruled out for Sunday with a concussion. That's going to open things up for DeVante Parker to have a bigger role against a generous Arizona pass defense that sits dead last in success rate vs. the pass.
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers is out for Monday night's game against the Cardinals, while RB Damien Harris is doubtful to play.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 10, 2022
Rhamondre Stevenson in line for another massive workload.
In the one game Meyers missed this season, Parker saw 10 of Mac Jones’ 32 targets and finished with 156 yards (49% air-yard share). His receiving markets aren’t open yet, but this would be an easy Over for me on any number below 58 receiving yards (which was Meyers’ season-high total).
The matchup is great as the Cards have the No. 25 DVOA pass defense and could be without starting corner Byron Murphy who was didn't practice Friday and has been out since Week 10.
With all the talk about the Pats not taking enough shots down the field, we could also possibly see a more aggressive approach to play-calling for the visitors.
Parker’s anytime touchdown is a number that will shorten in the coming days and has value up to +225. However, his receiving yards are a total I’ll be eyeing keenly.
DeVante Parker Prop: Anytime touchdown (+290)
Maid of Conner
The Patriots have a tough defense to run against as they sit in the Top 10 in EPA/rush, success rate, and DVOA. They’ve been even better of late, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry over their last three games, which is the second-best mark in football over that stretch. All of this leads to a tough day on the ground for James Conner, whose 125 yards in Week 12 are inflated thanks to one of the worst rush defenses in the Chargers.
Conner’s rushing total sits at 62.5 yards and is trending to the Under. This is a number he’s topped just twice this season, and his 3.9 yards per carry isn’t selling me on the Over.
Back on Thanksgiving, this New England defense held Dalvin Cook to just 42 yards on 22 carries. New England also kept the Jets’ running backs to just 32 yards on 19 carries in Week 11 and gave up just 59 yards to Nick Chubb earlier in the season. Since Week 9, this defense ranks first in success rate vs. the run and second in EPA/rush.
The Cards are still dealing with O-line issues even out of the bye. Week 12 starting guard Rashaad Coward hasn’t practiced this week, while five other linemen are currently on the IR.
Conner will certainly get the majority of the carries, but that’s priced in here. What might not be, is the Cardinals mixing in rookie RB Keaontay Ingram more coming out of the bye. They might even give Corey Clement more carries after the departure of Eno Benjamin.
Either way, it will be tough sledding for the Arizona running game that might lean on the pass even more with Kyler Murray and the receiving corps healthier.
Conner’s rushing total was 51.5 vs. the 49ers, and no team has been better vs. the rush over the last four games than the Patriots.
James Conner Prop: Under 62.5 rushing yards (-110)
Murray-up offense
The Cardinals’ passing game is getting healthier after the bye. Greg Dortch looks set to return, while DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown have likely enjoyed a week of recuperation. With the passing conditions of an indoor event coupled with the difficulty of running against the Patriots, Kyler Murray might have to do more than he did in Week 12.
Murray passed for ]less than 200 yards in his first game back from a hamstring injury in Week 12, but with the Cardinals able to run easily vs. a soft Chargers’ run defense, Murray wasn’t needed much with just 29 pass attempts.
THE BLITZ is projecting 288 passing yards for Murray, which is giving bettors over 50 yards of value from his current 230.5 passing total. Murray’s passing total closed at 250.5 in Week 12 vs. the Chargers, and the quarterback has averaged a passing total of 247 over his last eight games.
The Patriots have also given up plenty of passing yards on the road this season, as their 256 yards per game on the road is the seventh-highest mark in football (MIA, NYJ, MIN, and PIT).
Kyler Murray Prop: Over 230.5 passing yards (-114)
