Saturday's Week 15 action concludes with the New England Patriots visiting the Indianapolis Colts as 2.5-point road dogs. The Patriots have benefited from some scheduling favors as well as weather conditions of late and the Colts pose a real risk to the Patriots' seven-game winning streak.
Is New England’s stock at a season-high heading into Saturday's game? Will we see both teams’ defense sell out to stop the run? Find out in our free props and predictions for Patriots vs. Colts.
Patriots vs Colts prop picks
- Carson Wentz Over 225.5 passing yards (-110)
- Kylen Granson anytime TD (+1,600)
- Mac Jones Over 20.5 completions (-120)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Colts Week 15 props
A Little Help From My Wentz
The New England Patriots have been pretty lucky when it comes to seeing good passing teams. They faced Josh Allen in a tornado and Tom Brady in a typhoon. Outside of those two, the Patriots have seen Ryan Tannehill (with no Julio Jones or A.J. Brown), Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Mike White in five of their last seven games.
Carson Wentz has been flying under the radar this season but hasn’t been needed to do too much of late as the Colts have been rolling. Wentz has topped 200 yards just once in his last four games but three of those games were blowouts. In his last four games decided by 10 points or fewer, Wentz is averaging 279 passing yards per game.
Bill Belichick is notorious for taking away a team’s strengths and for the Colts, that’s the running game and Jonathan Taylor. Wentz will likely be needed to do the heavy lifting if New England sells out to stop the run. The Pats also allow plenty of receiving yards to opposing backs (54 yards per game).
Wentz’ 225.5 passing yards is a six-week low for the Indy QB and we think the weather and strength of schedule have overblown this New England defense.
PICK: Carson Wentz Over 225.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Longshot of the Day
Sometimes you need to take a shot and Saturday night’s matchup might be one of those times. Indianapolis’ Jack Doyle was added to the injury report mid-week which is never a good thing, especially on the short week. Doyle hasn’t been a tight-end target hog by any means, but he does play roughly 65% of the offensive snaps. If he were to miss time, fringe TE Kylen Granson could see an expanded role and see some of those 15-30 passing snaps that Doyle has been playing.
Granson is coming off a season-high 30 snaps (42%) in Week 13 and led the TE’s in targets and although he hasn’t caught more than two balls in any game, the rookie is coming out of his first NFL bye and is getting more trust within the offense.
The Colts have 86 total targets to their TEs this season which accounts for 22% of the team’s total targets. The Patriots are one of the toughest teams in the red zone and getting creative inside the 20 is likely needed to succeed Saturday and that could benefit the Colts' tight ends — especially in the play-action game. Both of Granson's targets in Week 13 were in the red zone.
Granson has no props open other than his touchdown prop which is worth a sprinkle at the lofty price of +1,600 (BetMGM). Bet365 has yet to open their TD markets and might be worth monitoring as they usually offer the best fringe TD prices that can get as high as +2,500.
With Doyle limited and the Colts likely having to lean on the pass a little more, at 17/1, Granson is worth a small flier for those looking for high-priced TD props on Saturday. We’re throwing down 0.25 units to win four.
PICK: Kylen Granson anytime TD (+1,600 at BetMGM)
Mac Magic
Mac Jones has needed to pass the ball at least 30 times just once in his last five games thanks to the weather and favorable matchups. In his first eight NFL games, the rookie QB averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game and topped 30 throws in all but one of them. The Colts’ defense sits fifth in EPA/play against the run and with a banged-up Damien Harris, Mac Jones might have to dust off the throwing arm on Saturday.
The Colts sit 17th in the league in completions allowed per game at 22.3 but that number is skewed slightly after the Texans completed just 11 passes in their previous game. In their previous eight games before the Houston blowout, opposing QBs were averaging 24.25 completions per game and that includes Josh Johnson and Davis Mills totaling 56 completions.
Jones has been an efficient passer when called upon as he sits third in the league in completion percentage at 70.1%, completes shorter passes (27th in air yards per game) which creates more completion chances, averages just four bad passes per game which is a Top 5 mark and his receivers catch the ball with an average of just one dropped pass per game.
We’re taking the Over 20.5 completions for the New England QB and think that the Pats’ offense will have to be more balanced than it's been over the last four games.
PICK: Mac Jones Over 20.5 completions (-120 at Bet365)
