With a win over the New England Patriots on Sunday, the Miami Dolphins can finish higher than the Pats for just the second time over the last two decades.
The Pats followed a Week 13 shutout win by getting embarrassed on TNF by the Rams and earning QB Cam Newton a spot on the pine. The Dolphins fell to the Chiefs last week but are still winners of seven of their last nine games and sit in second place in the AFC East at 8-5 SU.
NFL odds have the Dolphins opening at -2.5 and that number hit as low as -2 before coming back up to -2.5 midweek. This divisional battle also has the second-lowest NFL betting total on the board this week at 41.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Dolphins for Sunday, December 20 (1:00 p.m. ET).
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Weather
It will be feeling like the low-80s on what will be a gorgeous sunny December day in Florida. Hard Rock Stadium will be home to partly-cloudy skies (four percent P.O.P.) and a 9 mph breeze. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Patriots: Damien Harris RB (Out), Julian Edelman WR (Out).
Dolphins: Mike Gesicki TE (Out), DeVante Parker WR (Out), Jakeem Grant WR (Out), Ereck Flowers OL (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 head-to-head matchups. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Dolphins.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
New England’s Cam Newton will have had 10 days to prepare for this divisional matchup, but how much does the QB have left in the tank? Newton only played two games in 2019 and has looked like a walking wounded signal-caller late this season. Coach Bill Belichick told reporters that he is sticking with Cam against the Dolphins but another benching could be right around the corner against an opponent who is holding opposing QBs to the third-lowest QBR per game this year.
Miami will need its defense more than ever as a grocery list of injuries to the offense has complicated things for QB Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins could be without their top two running backs, top two wide receivers and their No. 1 tight end this Sunday. Even without the majority of those players, the Dolphins still made things competitive against the Chiefs last week and showed a lot of fight.
Miami has played teams tough all year and one could make the case that they are the toughest opponent in the league with an NFL-best 10-3 ATS mark for the year. At home, Miami is 6-1 ATS with its only loss coming in Week 4 to the Seahawks.
This will be a heavy public play, especially with the Patriots showing on primetime last week, but we can’t get behind a New England offense that can’t pass the ball. With the small total (41.5) we like taking a small number a lot better than a big number.
PREDICTION: Miami -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Pats managed just 10 first downs last week, which tied for the league’s fewest in Week 14. If New England wants to put points on the board it will have to do that with its running game, but with Miami allowing the fourth-fewest yards per rush (3.6) since Week 12, we could be seeing a lot of New England punts.
As for tempo, both teams rank in the Bottom 8 in plays per game. The offensive quality of those plays has also left something to be desired, with both teams in the Bottom 10 in yards per play.
It takes a brave bettor to hit the Under on 41.5 with near-perfect weather, but the Dolphins hit the Under 43.5 just two weeks ago with a much healthier lineup. Combined both teams are a combined 9-17 O/U on the year.
PREDICTION: Under 41.5 (-110)
Total Touchdowns Pick
With all the injuries on the Miami offense, it’s tough to imagine this team converting on plenty of third downs. Miami already ranks in the Bottom 8 in converting on third downs and could be stalling out a few more times than usual this week.
New England is moving the chains on 34 percent of its third downs since Week 12 as an offense that can’t throw the ball is unsurprisingly bad at maintaining drives.
These poor converting averages are also found when both teams hit the red zone. Each club has struggled to score TDs inside the 20 this year as both teams sit in the bottom half in red-zone TD scoring percentage. Those struggles have been even more prevalent recently, with Miami and New England both sporting sub-50 percent RZ TD percentages.
With a lack of starting skill on the Miami offense and New England a bad half away from benching their starting QB, TDs will be a huge commodity come Sunday.
PREDICTION: Total touchdowns Under 4.5 (-135)
Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Card
- Miami -2.5 (-110)
- Under 41.5 (-110)
- Total touchdowns Under 4.5 (-135)
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