Week 11 gets underway Thursday as the Atlanta Falcons host the New England Patriots as 7-point home dogs after getting their doors blown off last week by the Cowboys.
Can Atlanta get the offense going without Calvin Ridley, possibly no Cordarrelle Patterson, and a non-existent running game? Can Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense continue to stack points on the road? Find out in our free prop picks and predictions for TNF between the Patriots and the Falcons.
Patriots vs Falcons prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Falcons TNF props
Mac Jones’ Diary
Entering Week 11, Mac Jones is in a two-way race with the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jones hasn’t been pouring on the passing yards, but he sits fourth in completion percentage (69%) and has protected the ball well of late, with just one interception over his last four games (6:1 TD/INT ratio). Thursday, he’ll get a defense that was embarrassed last week and allowed five TDs on five defensive red-zone trips by the Cowboys.
Jones has tossed two or more TDs in three of his last five games and showed incredible touch and accuracy last week in a 45-7 dismantling of the Browns. The Patriots have been one of the heavier rushing teams over the last three weeks, but they’ve still thrown plenty in the red zone, with 20 RZ passes compared to 21 RZ rushes. Those 20 RZ passes have netted Jones four TD passes. Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, Brandon Bolden and Nelson Agholor all have TD receptions over the last four games. Jones can spread it around.
Defensively, only two other teams are allowing more passing TDs per game than Atlanta at 2.1 per game. Dak Prescott, Trevor Siemian and Tua Tagovailoa have all posted multi-TD passes over the last four weeks versus the Falcons.
We aren’t high on the Over or Jones’ passing yard total of 255.5, but are willing to drink the juice on the Over 1.5 touchdown passes for a QB who is playing with confidence and possibly coming off his best game as a pro.
PICK: Mac Jones Over 1.5 passing TDs (-130 at bet365)
Risky Business
"Scared money doesn't make money" is one of our least favorite sayings, but it could have an application for Thursday night. Running back Damien Harris missed Week 10 with a concussion but was back at practice (limited) Tuesday, which is a positive indication for his availability for Thursday’s meeting.
If Harris is a go for Thursday, his +105 anytime TD (BetMGM) price is likely to drop, as he consistently closes below +100 for an anytime TD. He has seven TDs in nine games this year and has scored a TD in five straight games. Coming off a concussion is always worrisome, but if he can’t get out of the league protocol, he’ll sit and this will be a void bet anyway.
Harris has 27 of the team’s 51 running back red-zone rushes on the year and 62 percent of those totes in games that he's suited up. He’s cashed five of those 27 RZ rushed for scores and is just one of 11 RBs with five or more RZ TDs.
Defensively, Atlanta sits 20th in rush success rate and allows 1.2 running back scores per game. The Falcons have allowed an RB rushing TD in three straight games and in seven of their nine games this season.
New England is averaging a robust 37 rushes per game over their last three games and Harris is trending towards suiting up. Harris' TD is priced as low as -155 at other books.
PICK: Damien Harris anytime TD (+105 at BetMGM)
Seize the Olamide
Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson has been a savior for a struggling offense. He leads the team in rushing yards and is second in receptions and receiving yards. He also comes into this TNF matchup highly questionable after being limited all week with an ankle sprain that NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported “didn’t sound optimistic” in regards to Patterson’s Week 11 availability.
Olamide Zaccheaus could see a few more targets his way if Patterson sits. The third-year wide receiver has been soaking up the Calvin Ridley opportunities of late and finished for the team lead in targets last week with seven. He didn’t do a whole lot with them – just two catches for 22 yards – but the whole offense was a disaster last week. That volume, mixed with his yardage total of 32.5, makes him a great fringe bet for TNF.
The Patriots are not an easy team to pass against and Bill Belichick loves to eliminate teams’ best players, meaning Kyle Pitts could see lots of double teams, leaving Russell Gage and Zaccheaus with better looks. Atlanta should be playing from behind in this one as 7-point road dogs and with Patterson possibly out and one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, Matt Ryan and the offense will be forced to go pass-heavy yet again.
Zaccheaus is playing roughly 45 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks and has 0.24 targets per route run over that stretch, which is similar to Pitts’ volume. He comes in 12 yards shorter on his total yards than Gage, who has zero catches in two of his last three games. Zaccheaus had seven targets last week and posted a 3/58/2 the week before.
PICK: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
