Patriots vs Giants Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 12: Fade DeVito With New England Coming Off a Bye

The betting community's confidence in the New England Patriots has significantly waned since their bye week, with their status shifting from a 5.5-point favorite to as low as -3 in the latest NFL odds. This adjustment precedes their upcoming clash with Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants at the Meadowlands on Sunday.

Despite the questions at quarterback for the visitors, all DeVito’s performance did last week was sway the perception of him, and that's creating some value for the Pats.

I break down the Week 12 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Patriots vs. Giants on November 26. 

Patriots vs Giants odds

Patriots vs Giants predictions

Now that the spread has hit -3, it’s time to buy the dip on the New England Patriots.

It sure sounds like Mac Jones will start after he told reporters on Tuesday that he hopes to play. And even if Bailey Zappe gets the nod instead, New England is still the right side at a flat 3. 

This is a bad spot for Tommy DeVito as he faces Bill Belichick, who has an extensive track record of making inexperienced quarterbacks look bad. With the Patriots coming off a bye week, the extra time to prep for the rookie isn't in the New York Giants' favor either. 

Heading into Week 11, DeVito was the subject of ridicule, but he turned the narrative around by defeating the Commanders and delivering an impressive performance with three touchdowns and 246 yards. In the two preceding starts with DeVito, the Giants had been outscored 79 to 23, and as a team, they entered last week as the lowest-scoring offense in football, managing single-digit points in half of their games.

Despite the victory, it's also worth noting that Washington outgained the Giants by 111 yards and held nearly 10 more minutes of possession, indicating that New York's success wasn't necessarily a dominant showcase.

Meanwhile, New England could get some bodies back this week as tackle Trent Brown works his way back from an ankle injury, while wideout DeVante Parker and corner J.C. Jackson haven’t been ruled out either. Even without these pieces, getting any team at -3 against a QB like DeVito isn’t a bad move, especially with the Pats having the rest advantage coming off the bye. 

The Giants are contending with five mid-week injuries to key starters, with notable names like star running back Saquon Barkley, tackle Evan Neal, defensive leader Dexter Lawrence, linebacker Bobby Okereke, and receiver Darius Slayton all marked as DNPs on Wednesday. CB Adoree' Jackson is also still dealing with a concussion.

Even if Zappe is announced as the starter for New England, I can’t see this line dropping to -2.5. Although it might not seem fun laying three points with the Pats on the road, this will likely be the best number available. 

My best bet: Patriots -3 (-112 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Patriots vs Giants same-game parlay

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Patriots vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis

The Patriots were off in Week 11 but were still decent 5.5-point favorites heading into the weekend on the look-ahead. The football world was calling Tommy DeVito the worst QB in football and they weren’t that wrong. The New York pivot threw for just 261 yards with three TDs and three picks in his first two starts before getting the win over the Commanders in Week 11. 

Somehow, that performance was enough to will the betting community into widdling this line to as low as New England -3. It has had some resistance, however, especially with many feeling it will be Mac Jones starting in Week 12 following Wednesday's practice.

Q: Are you starting Sunday?

Mac Jones: "Hope so" pic.twitter.com/1bX36U3qAv

— NBC Sports Boston's Patriots Coverage (@NBCSPatriots) November 22, 2023

DeVito and the traveling Giants closed as a 7.5-point dog in Washington last week, whereas, for comparison’s sake, the Pats closed as a 3-point home favorite vs. the Commanders in Week 9. If Jones is under center, this should close on the longer side of 3, and if the Giants have injuries to their starters, a -4/-4.5 isn’t out of the question. 

The 33.5-point total is the lowest of the week and ties a 2023 season-low that was set in last week's Pittsburgh/Cleveland game. There are low winds with a minor chance of rain for this afternoon affair in the Meadowlands, but this is a low total that should see a little movement to the Over following a look-ahead number of 35.

However, if Barkley were to carry his DNP into the weekend, this total could be volatile. Barkley accounted for 140 of the team’s 292 total yards last week. The possibility of the Giants missing both Barkley and Slayton would certainly move both the spread and total in favor of the Pats and the Under. 

Patriots vs Giants betting trend to know

New York has scored first in five of its last 20 games (-9.05 Units / -43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Giants.

Patriots vs Giants game info

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