A short week is about as welcome as conventional medicine for Aaron Rodgers.
His aging bones (and tender Achilles) will be put to the test when his New York Jets host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
New England has shown some fight in its first two outings, and my early Patriots vs. Jets predictions expect that fight to continue. Find out why in the NFL picks ahead.
Patriots vs Jets predictions
Early spread lean
Patriots +6.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The look-ahead line for this Thursday nighter was Jets -7.5 in the summer. After two weeks of results, the New England Patriots have looked better than expected... and the New York Jets are still very much a work in progress.
The official Week 2 opening spread was Jets -6.5, with some notable absences on New York's defense. On top of Haason Reddick being MIA, Gang Green could be down starters LB C.J. Mosely, DL Jermaine Johnson, and CB D.J. Reed on the short week.
The defense is the Jets’ biggest strength, but it hasn’t played like it. New York sits 22nd in EPA allowed per play through two weeks, looking notably soft in the trenches. San Francisco and Tennessee combined for 310 rushing yards in those outings.
If the Patriots do anything good on offense, it’s run the ball. New England has rumbled for totals of 185 and 170 yards on the ground in grinders with Seattle and Cincinnati, entering Week 3 ranked No. 8 in EPA per handoff.
That’s fueled a methodical approach on offense for new coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who is calling run at the fifth-highest rate and chewing up almost 34 minutes in possession — the fourth-highest TOP so far this season.
That doesn’t give Aaron Rodgers and the Jets' offense much time with the ball. Considering New York has played two solid defenses in the 49ers and Titans, the offensive is still 23rd in DVOA entering Thursday.
This bigger spread may be too much at this point in the schedule, especially if the defense keeps bleeding 4.7 yards per carry. I’m not rushing to bet the Patriots at +6.5 and would have to see a touchdown spread or higher to back the dog. We might get there with some books dealing an expensive New York -6.5 as of Monday morning.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 38.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This Week 3 total is much shorter than books expected back in the summer, with the look-ahead number at 42 points. The official Week 2 Over/Under opened at 39.5 points and is down to 38.5 O/U at most shops on Monday morning.
Both defenses have injury concerns, with the Jets potentially down three starters and New England running thin in the middle after LBs Ja'Whaun Bentley and Oshane Ximines left Week 2’s loss to Seattle.
As for these AFC East attacks, I mentioned the Patriots’ “ground-and-pound” approach through two games and New York’s inability to stuff the run, which could mean short gains with the clock ticking. As for passing, veteran Jacoby Brissett is struggling to push the ball downfield, with only one completion of 20+ yards, and just 5.9 intended air yards per pass through two games.
The Jets’ passing game is efficient, ranking ninth in success rate per dropback but not exacting striking fear in the hearts of secondaries. Rodgers was very conservative in the win over Tennessee, averaging less than six yards per attempt, and is boasting the eighth fewest intended air yards (6.3) in his first two starts back.
New England’s passing defense got roasted by the Seahawks’ deep threats on Sunday, with Seattle boasting two WRs with 100+ yards through the air. The Seahawks ran a lot of pre-snap motion to pull back the curtain on coverage schemes in the New England secondary, which is something Rodgers is doing more of.
The Jets’ air approach is not as good as Seattle’s, and I’m sure New York wants to keep its QB clean — utilizing shorter and quicker looks — which don’t allow for home run plays to develop. Rodgers has barely been pressured thanks to the fifth shortest time in pocket.
Some sharper books are already at 38 O/U with this total, so the rest of the board could follow suit and shorten this number. If you like the Under, make sure to get the Under 38.5.
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Patriots vs Jets live odds
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