Patriots vs Jets TNF Prop Bets: Henry Exceeds Expectations

Prop bet #1: Rhamondre Stevenson 4+ receptions

+152 at FanDuel

Rhamondre Stevenson has carried New England's plodding offense for the first two weeks of the season. He rumbled for 120 yards on 25 carries in New England's Week 1 victory against the Bengals before rushing for 81 yards on 21 carries in last week's overtime loss against the Seahawks. He made less of an impact in the passing game in those contests, totaling five catches for 15 yards, but expect that to increase in this matchup. 

With the New York Jets installed as 6.5-point favorites, there's a chance they get out to an early lead which will result in a negative game script for the Pats and more pass attempts. In addition, New England's offensive line is extremely banged up with left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sowe ruled out with injuries while center David Andrews and right tackle Mike Onwenu are listed as questionable. 

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett could be facing constant pressure behind a makeshift line which will lead to him firing quick passes to his outlet options. Despite adding Antonio Gibson in the offseason, Stevenson continues to be on the field in passing situations. He has a whopping 83.3% route participation rate which should result in more receptions against a Jets defense that allowed seven catches and 51 receiving yards to Titans running backs last week.

Prop bet #2: Breece Hall Under 62.5 rushing yards

-113 at FanDuel

Breece Hall was limited to 54 yards on 16 carries in Week 1 before rushing for 62 yards on 14 carries last week. Now he faces an Patriots defense that has been stingy against the run, holding opponents to just 58 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. Not only will Hall have a tougher than usual time going up against New England's defense but he could start ceding carries to backup Braelon Allen. 

The fourth-round rookie saw his snap share increase to 35% in Week 2 and made the most of his opportunities. Allen rushed seven times for 33 yards while adding another 23 yards through the air, so he could continue cutting into Hall's reps which limits his ceiling as a runner.

Prop bet #3: Hunter Henry Over 33.5 receiving yards

-113 at FanDuel

Hunter Henry was quiet in Week 1, catching just two passes for 18 yards in Cincinnati. However, he emerged as Brissett's favorite weapon last week, hauling in eight of 12 targets for 109 yards. Henry isn't going to consistently perform at that level but his receiving yards total of 33.5 seems a bit too low moving forward. Sure, 109 yards is an obvious outlier but 12 targets is a good indication that he will continue to get plenty of looks.

Especially with New England having the weakest WR corps in the league and desperately needing a reliable target for Brissett. Brissett has barely thrown the ball through the first two weeks but the Pats were generally playing with neutral or positive game scripts. If they fall behind early here, Brissett could see his pass attempts rise which would also buoy Henry's receiving numbers.