Patriots vs Packers Preseason Picks and Predictions: Love + Lambeau = Victory

The Green Bay Packers will get their first chance to play at Lambeau Field this summer as they host the New England Patriots tonight in preseason action.

Green Bay (1-0) opened its preseason schedule with a 36-19 win against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. New England (0-1) lost its exhibition opener 20-9 at home against the Houston Texans last Thursday.

The Patriots appear likely to give their first-team offense a bit more run in the second game of the preseason, which could improve upon their anemic production against the Texans. We’ll break down the game in our free NFL picks and predictions for Patriots vs Packers on August 19.

Patriots vs Packers odds

Patriots vs Packers predictions

The Green Bay Packers put on a comprehensive display in its opener against Cincinnati and were especially impressive on defense, holding the Bengals to just four field goals, though Cincinnati was able to score a defensive touchdown on a pick-six. 

If anything, the Packers will be playing a more effective defense against the New England Patriots. Last week, Green Bay put in that performance playing almost entirely backups, including their third- and fourth-team defenses at times. On Saturday, we can expect the Packers to give their starters at least a couple of series, with more time going to their primary backups as well.

Of course, they’ll also be facing a better offense in the second full week of preseason games. The Patriots didn’t play most of their starters last week, with Bailey Zappe getting most of the snaps and Mac Jones not making an appearance. That should change on Saturday, as New England will likely get Jones into the game along with new running back Ezekiel Elliott. 

However, the Patriots are dealing with a number of first-team injuries that should limit how much of their regular season offense takes the field this weekend. Tight end Mike Gesicki will be sitting out with a shoulder injury, while the offensive line will be limited due to minor injuries that aren’t worth aggravating in preseason play.

Even if New England gets Jones and Elliott in for a few series, that might not lead to offensive success. Meanwhile, the Patriots might have a tougher time holding down the Green Bay offense, which had little trouble moving the ball against the Bengals last week.

Jordan Love got into the game against Cincinnati, going 7-for-10 with a touchdown in limited play. While backup quarterback Sean Clifford was erratic, throwing two interceptions, he was also able to move the ball, completing 20 of 26 attempts for 208 yards and another score through the air.

Even if the Patriots play more of their first and second units on defense than the Bengals did, it’s likely that the Green Bay offense will be able to generate points throughout the game. On the other hand, New England will still be shifting parts in and out of their offensive unit, which should lead to a lack of continuity and trouble consistently moving the ball.

Green Bay comes into this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite in Saturday’s game. I think the Packers are a deserving favorite at home, especially as they seem more likely to play more of their starters than the Patriots. With the number remaining below a field goal at the time of this writing, I’m taking Green Bay and laying the points.

My best bet: Packers -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Patriots vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Packers opened Saturday’s game as a two-point favorite over the Patriots. The consensus NFL odds spread has moved up half a point, and you’ll now find Green Bay -2.5 points as the main line at most books. The Packers are the favorite on that number at most books, though you can find -110 on them by shopping around, while -103 is available on the Patriots. 

The Patriots lost both straight up and against the spread in their first preseason game. Meanwhile, the Packers are 1-0 and also have an ATS win on their record.

As I pointed out in my best bet, I like the Packers here. Green Bay’s defense should get another chance to shine on Saturday, while the Patriots will be sitting many of their starters due to nagging injuries. If you can’t get this line at -2.5, I would be less excited about giving up a full field goal, but I’d still lean toward the Packers at -3. 

The total on this contest opened at a flat 37 points, which has come down slightly, and now sits at 36.5 at some books, while others have stuck to the initial line. The sites that are still on 37 points have the line at -110 on either side, while you can get -105 on the Under at 36.5.  

New England hit the Under in its first game, as both the Patriots and the Texans came out sluggish on offense. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s offensive explosion hit the Over even with a strong performance from the team’s defense.

I’m inclined to stay away from the total on this game. The problem is while both teams should be able to play solid defense, the first-team offensive units will also be getting more run. That means the exact matchups — when and where the best talent will be on the field at any good time — could determine which side of the total ends up hitting. My slight lean is toward the Over at 36.5, but I’m staying off of the O/U for this game. 

Patriots vs Packers betting trend to know

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