Patriots vs Raiders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 6: Bourne Feasts Against Banged-Up Vegas D

This Sunday afternoon in Vegas, bettors will be treated to another round of Bill Belichick vs. Josh McDaniels when the New England Patriots travel to Vegas to take on the Raiders as a 3-point dog with a total of 41.5: according to NFL odds.

Despite Mac Jones not finishing back-to-back starts, with the potential game script, indoor setting, and injuries to the Las Vegas secondary, should bettors be backing a modest Over on the most-used New England receiver?

Here are my free NFL picks for the Patriots vs. Raiders on October 15.

Patriots vs Raiders odds

Patriots vs Raiders predictions

With Juju Smith-Schuster dealing with a concussion and the Las Vegas Raiders still thin in the secondary, Kendrick Bourne and his Over 39.5 receiving yards project very well for the Week 6 indoor matchup.

The New England Patriots receiver has led his team in targets for four of the five weeks to date, is getting targeted on 24% of his routes run, and there is room for improvement in efficiency with his 52% catch rate.

Even with spotty QB play, tougher matchups, and outdoor conditions, Bourne has been held to Under 37 yards just once this season. He’ll now face a Las Vegas secondary that had three DBs inactive last week (one starter) and currently has four DBs (two starters) limited or DNP at practice this week.

Starting safety Marcus Epps was a late add to the injury report last week and began this week as limited. Starting corner Nate Hobbs was a DNP and was also inactive last week. On top of those starters, depth corners David Long and Jakorian Bennett were also limited at practice. Bennett missed last week’s game and the Monday night contest is giving this secondary less time to recover. 

Mac Jones is a tough QB to trust and his leash is getting shorter, but Bourne has the best opportunities on this team. He could see a bump in targets with Smith-Schuster dealing with a concussion and has an indoor game vs. an injured secondary. With a modest total of 39.5 and the game script in his favor as a road dog, Bourne’s Over is my best play in Vegas on Sunday afternoon.  

THE BLITZ is projecting 54.9 yards for Bourne.

My best bet: Bourne Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Patriots vs Raiders same-game parlay

Kendrick Bourne Over 39.5 receiving yards

Over 40.5 points
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 2.5 rushing attempts

+600 at bet365

Bourne has a great matchup looming against an injured secondary in an indoor setting. Jones is on a tight leash but a move to Bailey Zappe won't hurt this modest total. 

I'm also happy to jump on this Over at 40.5. It has sunk enough that there is some value at this number, and with New England possessing one of the faster pace-of-play offenses, I'm on board. 

Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo could get two carries solely from victory formation kneels. THE BLITZ is projecting 3.61 carries and at plus money, this one is pumping the SGP odds. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Patriots vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis

Mac Jones will get another start this week after his head coach said there will be no changes heading into Week 6 under center. It might not be a long leash for Jones, who has been pulled in back-to-back games as his team has been outscored 72-3 over those 14 days.

There isn’t much to like about the New England offense which is why bettors are getting very low totals on their player prop markets. However, it’s a solid matchup for Jones with the injuries to the Vegas secondary. This is still a team that’s had to play some great defenses in the Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, and Saints. 

The Pats are still dealing with some injuries on defense with Christain Gonzalez and Matthew Judon out, but Belichick is still a master game planner and will face his former QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. There is an edge there for New England in a game that could be slow and low scoring. 

The Patriots have been at +3 for most of the week after being +1.5 on the look-ahead and reopening at 2.5. It wouldn’t surprise me to see New England close especially if the Raiders lose some DBs.

Davante Adams being a DNP at practice on Wednesday is slightly worrisome for Las Vegas backers and a reason why Vegas -3 is losing confidence. I don’t trust this Raiders’ offense and coaching staff as a favorite of a field goal or more. After all, McDaniels is 19-31 as head coach with zero winning seasons.

New England has been horrific of late but if Belichick can eliminate the Raiders’ running game or even Adams, Vegas could struggle to move the ball yet again as it currently ranks 29th in third-down conversions at 32%. 

Because of the QB play on both sides, this total has taken some Under money. It was 42.5 on the look-ahead and has hit as low as 41 before being bet back up to 41.5 as of Friday afternoon. The indoor setting will be tough to ignore on such a low total but the status of Adams will play a big part on which side of 41 this total closed at.

New England has surprisingly played at the fastest pace of play in a neutral context but only four teams are slower than the Raiders. Both clubs also rank near the bottom of the league in run rate as the Pats sit 29th in yards per rush (3.3) while Las Vegas has been even worse at 3.1 yards per tote. 

I think the Over on the 41 is the right move on this total but at 41.5 it does nothing for me. 

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