It's Conference Championship weekend in the NFL, and we've got two incredible matchups to enjoy as the football season inches closer to its finale — Super Bowl 59 on February 9.
This week, my NFL picks against the spread back who I believe deserves to be the final two teams left standing, and while some may not agree, good luck backing the other side.
NFL Conference Championship picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Commanders vs  Eagles |
(+6) |
 Bills vs  Chiefs |
(+1.5) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 1-21.
Expert Conference Championship Round ATS picks
Commanders vs Eagles
Commanders +6
I discussed this at length last week on my YouTube channel, but the Washington Commanders appear to be a team of destiny.
They were written off every step of the way despite finishing the regular season with a 12-5 record, having a Top-10 offense overall, and the No. 3 pass defense.
If that's not the mark of a good team, then what is? They are getting incredible quarterback play from rookie Jayden Daniels, and are getting contributions from unsung heroes like Dyami Brown and Zach Ertz. Going into Detroit and dropping 45 on the Super Bowl favorites is no easy feat. They deserve respect, and they have mine.
On the other side, the Philadelphia Eagles hung on for dear life to beat the Los Angeles Rams 28-22. Saquon Barkley was the focal point, rushing for 205 yards and two touchdowns. However, the health of Jalen Hurts is a serious concern for the Eagles. If he's less than 100%, that takes away his ability to be effective as a runner, thus allowing the Commanders to sell out at stopping Barkley.
Washington dropped 36 on the Eagles in the last meeting, and while I'm not expecting another 36, it has every chance to win this game outright.
Bills vs Chiefs
Bills +1.5
The Buffalo Bills were able to get by one former NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and their prize for doing so? A trip to Arrowhead to take on their arch-nemesis and two-time defending Super Bowl champions, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
While both teams won double-digit games this year, the narrative was the Chiefs struggled to put teams away, while the Bills ran away from everyone and were only pegged back by a few rough showings on defense (Week 18 notwithstanding).
These two teams know each other extremely well, having met once already this year (a Buffalo win), and three times in the playoffs over the last four seasons where the Bills are 0-3. I'm here to tell you that winless run gets snapped on Sunday night.
The Buffalo Bills will be able to move the ball on the Chiefs and it starts and ends with Josh Allen.
The only thing that has me concerned is Doug McDermott getting outcoached by Andy Reid and one or two (non-calls) going in favor of the Chiefs.
Conspiracies aside, the Bills are the better team from top to bottom, and I expect them to finally slay the dragon.
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