The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us and there is still plenty to be decided in both the playoff picture and the tank for the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft.
When making your Week 18 NFL picks against the spread, it's imperative to understand a team's motivation (or lack thereof).
Join me as I break down the full NFL slate for the final time this season.
Week 18 picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Browns vs  Ravens |
(+18) |
 Bengals vs  Steelers |
(-1.5) |
 Bills vs  Patriots |
(-2) |
 Panthers vs  Falcons |
(-8) |
 Bears vs  Packers |
(-10) |
 Texans vs  Titans |
(+1.5) |
 Jaguars vs  Colts |
(+4.5) |
 Saints vs  Buccaneers |
(-13.5) |
 Giants vs  Eagles |
(+3) |
 Commanders vs  Cowboys |
(-5.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Broncos |
(+10.5) |
 Chargers vs  Raiders |
(-4.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Jets |
(-1) |
 Seahawks  Rams |
(+6.5) |
 49ers vs  Cardinals |
(-4.5) |
 Vikings vs  Lions |
(-3) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 1-2.
Expert Week 18 ATS picks
Browns vs Ravens
Browns +18
There's no denying who will win this game. The Ravens have a chance to win the AFC North and I don't believe they'll squander that chance. However, 18 points is a lot to lay in a division game, one that has the potential for a backdoor cover.
Read our full Browns vs. Ravens prediction.
Bengals vs Steelers
Bengals -1.5
The Bengals know what needs to be done. They must win this game and hope some results go their way on Sunday. Considering how Joe Burrow is playing and the way Pittsburgh has come crashing back down to earth, I'll back the Bengals to handle their part.
Read our full Bengals vs. Steelers prediction.
Bills vs Patriots
Bills -2
The Buffalo Bills have nothing to play for. We will likely see Josh Allen for a series or two. Meanwhile, the Patriots can clinch the No. 1 pick with a loss. I'll take Mitchell Trubisky to ball out and help the Patriots successfully tank.
Read our full Bills vs. Patriots prediction.
Panthers vs Falcons
Falcons -8
The Falcons are on the outside of the playoffs looking in, but Michael Penix Jr. showed some guts last week vs. the Commanders and I expect him to build off of that to finish the season strong.
Bears vs Packers
Packers -10
There's very little to play for in this contest, so laying -10 with the Packers might seem like a bad move. However, the Bears have been checked out since Week 14 and I don't believe they can put up enough points to keep this one close.
Read our full Bears vs. Packers prediction.
Texans vs Titans
Texans +1.5
The Houston Texans will host a playoff game next week, while the Titans will be off for vacation. Given the way the Texans are limping to the finish line, I believe they'll use this one to try and build some positive momentum. Besides, betting against Mason Rudolph is never a bad idea.
Read our full Texans vs. Titans prediction.
Jaguars vs Colts
Jaguars +4.5
I wouldn't recommend betting this game with your own money, but I trust the Jaguars more here catching points than I do laying it with Joe Flacco.
Read our full Jaguars vs. Colts prediction.
Saints vs Buccaneers
Buccaneers -13.5
The Bucs are one win away from an NFC South title and a home playoff game. They'll be ready for this one and I don't see the Saints scoring enough to stay within the number.
Giants vs Eagles
Giants +3
The Eagles are already on record saying they are resting some key pieces, so why not back the Giants here catching a field goal? This is a team that just put up 45 points, and may be feeling good about themselves.
Read our full Giants vs. Eagles prediction.
Commanders vs Cowboys
Commanders -5.5
The shoe finally dropped on the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys in a 41-7 loss last week. With momentum stalled and the Commanders playing for seeding, I expect Washington to roll here.
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Chiefs vs Broncos
Chiefs +10.5
Whether or not the Chiefs rest their starters (they are), I don't believe the Broncos are 10.5 points better than the Chiefs.
Chargers vs Raiders
Chargers -4.5
The Chargers are playing for seeding and with a likely loss (I believe) from the Steelers, they could steal the No. 5 seed and play the Texans instead of the Ravens. That's enough for me to back the better team in this spot.
Dolphins vs Jets
Dolphins -1
The Dolphins have an outside shot at the playoffs, but even so, the Jets are just a team you need to bet against in this spot.
Seahawks vs Rams
Rams +6.5
The Seahawks were eliminated last week, while the Rams are locked into the three-seed. Even if the Rams pull some of their starters, I don't believe the Seahawks can win this game by a touchdown.
Read our full Seahawks vs. Rams prediction.
49ers vs Cardinals
Cardinals -4.5
There's nothing to play for in this contest, so give me the team with their starting QB under center.
Vikings vs Lions
Lions -3
The Vikings are a legit Super Bowl contender, but in this spot, the Lions should prevail on the strength of their explosive offense and the need to secure home field throughout.
Read our full Vikings vs. Lions prediction.
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