The Chicago Bulls had the Detroit Pistons, Joey Chestnut had Kobayashi, Prince had Michael Jackson, and the Buffalo Bills had the Kansas City Chiefs.
They all had their “dragon to slay” on the path to glory.
It just so happens the Bills’ dragon is a two-headed monster, with one head sporting a red cap and push-broom mustache and the other topped with a tuft of curly, dandruff-free hair and sounding a lot like Kermit the Frog.
Buffalo clashes with Kansas City for the fourth time in the past five postseasons in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday, going 0-for-3 against the Chiefs in those previous playoff encounters.
Understandably, the Bills are slight underdogs heading to Arrowhead Stadium which also makes them the featured point spread NFL pick in the Championship Sunday edition of my “NFL Underdogs” column.
Whether the Bills finally slay that dragon remains to be seen, but I do like them as two-point pups in an extremely tight game.
Last week: 2-0 ATS
Playoffs: 4-1 ATS
Season: 29-26-1 ATS
NFL Conference Championship predictions and picks
Click on the pick to jump to the full analysis.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
My pick: Buffalo Bills +2
(-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Buffalo Bills were able to get the best of the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 11, beating Kansas City 30-21 as 2.5-point home favorites in Orchard Park.
The victory snapped the Chiefs’ undefeated season, but in the grand scheme of things, the mid-season win didn’t mean much.
Just ask Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott, who, when asked about the significance of beating Kansas City, told the media,
This is not the finish line.
He’s right. The finish line is waiting in New Orleans. It’s a goal not lost on the Bills, especially after holding off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round to set up this return date with the rival Chiefs.
For as much as Kansas City has plagued the entire Buffalo organization, no player has felt that torment as much as quarterback Josh Allen.
If you need a reminder of Allen’s deep-rooted resentment of the Chiefs, go back to the 2021-22 Divisional Round overtime defeat to KC — a loss so crushing it forced the NFL to change the OT rulebook.
Allen is having the best season of his career and will likely win his first NFL MVP award in a couple of weeks. But it will be a hollow honor if he doesn’t beat the Chiefs this Sunday. And looking at his skill set and the talent around him, Allen is ready.
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to bring pressure with the blitz while padding that chaos up front with man-to-man schemes in the backfield.
Allen ranks Top 5 among all qualified QBs vs. the blitz at PFF and boasts the third-best passer rating against man coverage.
Unlike past years, when the Bills’ passing playbook depended on deep downfield looks, this current receiving corps has plenty of big capable pass catchers for quick short shots that then grind out yards after the catch (third highest YAC/completion). It’s an ideal foil to the Chiefs’ aggressiveness.
When Allen can’t find a target in time, his ability to break away with his legs and escape pressure is crucial. Allen rushed for 55 yards on 12 carries and a back-breaking touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 11, boosting his passing line of 262 yards (27-for-40) with one touchdown and an interception.
Kansas City allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to rival quarterbacks in the regular season and watched Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud keep drives alive with six rushes for 42 yards in the Divisional Round.
And that’s when Allen drops back. Buffalo is putting its head down and driving forward with the rushing attack during the playoffs, much like it did in the win over Kansas City in Week 11. The Bills ran 31 times in that matchup and controlled the clock for 34 minutes worth of possession.
Buffalo has handed off 36 and 44 times in the two playoff wins, picking up 4.4 and 4.8 yards per carry against Denver and Baltimore — two of the top run-stop units in the land. The Chiefs enter the AFC title game having given up 5.1 yards per attempt to the Texans last weekend and showed a soft spot to the run in recent games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
Grinding out gains on the ground not only keeps the K.C. pass rush honest and Allen’s jersey clean, but it also plays a little defense on offense.
Extended drives anchored in the rushing playbook chew up the clock and limit Patrick Mahomes' time with the football.
If Allen and the Bills can avoid Mahomes having the ball in his hands for the final possession of the game, there’s a good shot they’re covering this short spread and finally putting a sword through the heart of their dragon... or power bombing it through a table.
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