NFL Divisional Round Picks and Predictions: Chiefs Kingdom Won't Crumble

When it comes to betting NFL underdogs in the playoffs, it’s often easy to make a case for taking the points.

I mean, we’re talking about the top teams in the league.

Whichever side gets tabbed as the dog, they have more than a few positives pushing them. And when we get deep into the Super Bowl odds, those pups definitely have more pop after proving their worth on the postseason stage.

This weekend’s NFL Divisional Round odds give us a wide variety of point-spread pups to pick from, with lines ranging from double-digits to less than a field goal.

This spot in the playoffs isn’t as rich with underdog winners as the Wild Card (67% last eight postseasons), with Divisional Round dogs going just 15-16-1 against the spread since 2015-16. The size of the spread is inconsequential as well, with “Div Dogs” big and small splitting their fortunes.

Trends aren’t going to hint at the right side when games are this intense and odds are this tight. All eyes — and action — are on these final eight teams, so finding unaccounted edges and advantages as well as any mercy from the NFL odds makers is almost impossible.

Let’s roll up our sleeves and dig into the Divisional Round dirt for this week’s NFL picks and predictions.

Last week: 1-1 ATS

Season: 25-29-2 ATS

NFL Divisional Round picks and predictions

• Buccaneers +6.5
• Chiefs +3

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Detroit Lions pick

The Detroit Lions and their escape from a culture of losing football is a fantastic tale. It’s been even better if you’ve been betting on the Lions during this transformation. 

Since Dan Campbell put everyone’s kneecaps on notice, Detroit has been the best bet in the NFL with a collective 35-17 record against the spread (67%) going back to 2021.

The bulk of those profits were built as loveable underdogs in the first two seasons under Campbell. Detroit’s success mutated their market perception, and soon enough the Lions found themselves laying the points instead of getting them.

Detroit was a favorite in 15 of its 17 games in 2023-24. Only Kansas City and San Francisco were installed as the betting chalk more often. The Lions have kept the cash coming, sitting 10-5 ATS as a favorite. But like all popular picks, there’s a tipping point in which the value dries up.

This 6.5-point spread for Sunday’s Divisional Round showdown with Tampa Bay is that tipping point.

Lost in the fun and jubilance of Detroit’s win over the L.A. Rams in the Wild Card Round was a piss-poor effort from the Lions defense — a regular occurrence in the second half of the season.

While the Rams mustered only 23 points, they dominated that game on offense, amassing 425 yards (7.7 yards per play) and 22 first downs. It was the 0-for-3 finish in the red zone that made the difference — a strange result considering the Lions rank among the softest red-zone defenses in the land (62.5% opponent TD rate — 27th).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t on the same level as the Rams in terms of offensive firepower. Or are they? 

Tampa Bay’s attack stomped the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round, pouncing on its opponent from the opening kickoff and scoring 30 points on 426 yards (6.2 yards per play) with 23 first downs.

In fact, the Bucs have quietly been one of the more efficient offenses in the home stretch of the season. Tampa Bay has won six of its last seven games, ranking 10th in EPA per play during that streak.

The Bucs are sharp where it counts and have been all year. They’re the third-highest rated offense on third/fourth down by EPA per play, ranking Top 10 in conversion percentage on those pivotal sets. Detroit’s defense, on the other hand, sits 27th on those key downs.

That’s not even the true strength of this Buccaneers squad either. In that same seven-game frame, Tampa Bay ranks 11th in EPA allowed per play and has gotten nastier and nastier on defense with every game.

The Bucs are slamming the door on the ground game, finally have their secondary healthy, and Todd Bowles’ aggressive play-calling is getting after rival QBs and forcing them to play into the teeth of this stop unit.

Bowles will unleash hell against Lions QB Jared Goff this Sunday. Goff ranks out at the bottom of QB ratings when passing under pressure (43rd at PFF) and his output takes an even harder hit against the blitz — something Tampa Bay does at the third-highest rate).

Detroit may be able to ride the energy inside Ford Field to another win this weekend, and to be truthful, I’d love to see it. But the Buccaneers will keep this close, playing controlled possession football and slowing down the Lions on defense.

That makes the -6.5 points too much for the now “public favorites” in Motown.

PICK: Buccaneers +6.5 (-110 at bet365)

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Buffalo Bills pick

A weird stat coming out the latest chapter in this heated AFC rivaly: Sunday night’s game in Orchard Park will be Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game of his already Hall of Fame career.

How much is that home-field advantage worth to the Buffalo Bills spread? Not enough to overcome the Bills’ laundry list of injuries to the defense.

Survival is just as vital to postseason success as talent, and teams that can avoid cluster injuries and absorb those missing cogs tend to persevere. Buffalo is running dangerously thin at the worst possible time, too.

The Bills’ defensive depth chart, which was already plagued with injuries to key players throughout the season, has as many as four current starters listed as questionable and a bevy of backups nursing ailments — the bulk of which are in the secondary.

To make matters worse, due to the Wild Card game getting bumped to Monday, the team has a short week to get bodies back on the field in time for Sunday night. Kansas City, on the other hand, will be as fresh as it could be, owning a significant rest edge having played on Saturday.

Taking that into account, the rest/injury impact almost erases whatever worth advantage home field held to this spread, yet we’re seeing the Chiefs as big as field goal underdogs.

Kansas City fell well short of the market standards this season, but to the Chiefs’ defenses, that’s a pretty high standard.

In a strange twist of events, it was the K.C. defense that kept it together with the offense all over the board at times this year. That includes the 20-17 loss at home to the Bills in Week 14 that everyone will run to for answers when capping this contest.

However, we saw a very solid two-way effort from Kansas City in the Wild Card Round, stuffing the Dolphins into a box with a 26-7 win that was never in doubt. And the ceiling, as always, is much higher for the Chiefs offense.

Kansas City settled for four field goals in the victory over Miami, finishing 2-for-6 in the red zone, and the Chiefs should have posted 24 points (and probably won) in the Week 14 loss to Buffalo — if not for the now-infamous offside call on Kadarius Toney.

The promise of points from the Chiefs is especially high in the Divisional Round considering there are snowbanks in Buffalo deeper than the Bills depth chart.

The dwindling lack of talent on defense showed in the second half versus the Steelers, with Pittsburgh moving the chains and making things very uncomfortable for those laying the points with the home side.

Sub out Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ pop-gun attack for Mahomes, a rolling Isiah Pacheco, and Andy Reid’s offense, and I don’t see how this spread should be anything bigger than Bills -1.

Kansas City is fresher, just as explosive on offense, and has the better and more intact defense. Bills Mafia can burn and break all the tables they want. It ain’t worth three points.

PICK: Chiefs +3 (-118 at DraftKings)

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