The Super Bowl has hype and Championship Sunday carries weight but when it comes to bang for your betting buck, the NFL Divisional Round is the best time of the tournament.
You’ve weeded out the weak in the Wild Card Round and have eight capable contenders clashing in four games over two days. Even the scheduling works well. Saturday games start at 4:30 p.m. ET and Sunday’s action kicks off at 3 pm ET.
That allows plenty of time to enjoy the day, get some chores done, or shuttle the little ones around to birthday parties, gymnastics or whatever is on the calendar. After that, you’re left with nothing but a clear conscience to plunk down on the couch for a football-filled finish to the weekend.
The Divisional Round hasn’t been as rosy for those who like to bet on NFL underdogs, however.
While the Wild Card has been a cash cow for those taking the points over the years, the second round of the playoffs has put forth a ho-hum 17-18-1 ATS mark for postseason pups since 2015-16.
It’s a notable downtick for dogs, considering all other rounds of the NFL playoffs, including Super Bowl, have seen underdogs go a collective 41-28-1 ATS (59.4%) in that same time frame.
So, what is it that makes the Divisional Round about as “dog friendly” as that hoity-toity cat cafe downtown?
I have no clue. But I do have two NFL picks and predictions for the Divisional Round that I believe are more bite than bark.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 27-26-1 ATS
NFL Divisional Round predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
My pick: Washington Commanders +10
(-112 at Pinnacle)
This Divisional Round pairing is the NFL equivalent of a craps table at 3:45 a.m. And the only gamblers playing are two guys named Dan, screaming and shouting with every roll of the dice.
Campbell and Quinn clash in a game of chicken between two of the riskiest head coaches in the league, leading two of the “luckiest” teams. The Detroit Lions often have the edge in marbles, but the Washington Commanders bring plenty of balls to the table this weekend.
The best way to fight that chaos might be with more chaos. Someone’s luck is going to run out, but Washington is getting a 10-point head start from the oddsmakers.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels is no longer a “rookie” at this point in the postseason and he played with poise and grit in the Wild Card win over a very aggressive Tampa Bay defense. Daniels faces a similar style attack from Detroit, one that wants to blitz at a high rate and put the QB on his heels.
That plan has worked well for the Lions most weeks, but when you run down Detroit’s schedule you don’t find too many quarterbacks that can move and throw on the run like Daniels.
The last time the Lions took on a passer that fit that mold, Josh Allen hung 430 total yards of offense on them in Week 15. Daniels is not Allen, but he’s going to challenge Aaron Glenn to rethink his approach to the pass rush.
Another rarity for this game is that Washington may have the better defense taking the field — but not by much. The Commanders stop unit ranked among the bottom-tier defenses in the NFL for most of the season but improved in the home stretch of the schedule.
Detroit’s defense looked much better in the Week 18 finale with the Vikings, but that was a familiar foe with the clock striking midnight on Sam Darnold’s “Cinderella” run. This depth chart is still being held together with duct tape and closed out the campaign near the bottom of many advanced defensive ratings.
Openers were all over the place when this Divisional Round game was set, with the Lions opening at -7.5 and then spiking to -10 before the market consensus settled to -9. As of this writing, the spread ranges from Washington +8.5 to +10.
Give me all the points and let chaos take the wheel.
Covers NFL betting tools
- NFL odds
- NFL picks
- NFL player props
- Super Bowl 59 odds
- Best NFL betting sites
- This week’s NFL matchups
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
My pick: Buffalo Bills +1.5
(-118 at DraftKings)
Writing a column dubbed “NFL Underdogs” does limit the ways you can wager, especially when you only have four games on the board.
I did do an “early leans” article for this game and showed interest toward the Ravens, but for the sake of this exercise (I usually have two underdog bets in this column in the Divisional Round), I will highlight the Buffalo Bills +1.5. Do with it what you will…
It’s not a bad bet by any means. This spread has essentially been a pick’em, jumping from the Bills as faves to the Baltimore Ravens in the first two days of action. And when you measure it up against the other teams getting points this weekend, I like Buffalo +1.5 more than Houston +8 or L.A. +6.
Postseason home pups have proved profitable in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS count since 2020. Take it back to 2015, and home underdogs have come through at a 75% clip (10-3-1 ATS).
The early movement on this line is helped along by Baltimore’s dominant win over Buffalo back in Week 4. The Ravens ran up and down the Bills defense, which was missing some key contributors for that late-September showdown. Buffalo’s offense was also a work in progress at that point in the season, with Josh Allen working with a revamped receiving corps and a new playbook from OC Joe Brady.
Allen and the Bills are the toughest test the Ravens stop unit has faced in a while. Baltimore finished the schedule against offenses rated 19th, 23rd, 28th, and 32nd in EPA per play and then faced the Steelers’ one-dimensional playbook again in the Wild Card Round.
We did see Baltimore give up points against capable offense, including two shootouts with Cincinnati, 24 points to the Eagles, and 31 points to Tampa Bay. Buffalo enters the second round of the tournament right behind Baltimore at the top of those advanced offensive metrics and can gouge the Ravens for gains on the ground and through the air.
If there ever was a live home underdog in the playoffs, the Bills are it. I also bet the Over, so let's hope this one lives up to the hype.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
