First impressions are tricky.
Every September, Week 1 of the NFL season offers every team another go-around at making a first impression and an opportunity to alter how they’re viewed.
That perception can already be in place when you start throwing point spreads into the mix, and those clubs tagged as NFL underdogs in their opener have a steeper grade to climb against the sentiments of the betting public.
And speaking of NFL underdogs, this is far from my first installment of Covers’ weekly column of the same name. Yet, with the growing popularity of NFL betting (and the SEO team doing a bang-up job), this is likely the first time many of you are reading it.
“OK, JLo. First impression time. The pressure’s on. Don’t screw up.”
I’m Jason Logan. I’ve been with Covers.com since 2005 and at the wheel of this NFL picks piece for the past four years, boasting a 126-104-1 ATS mark all-time in the regular season and playoffs (55%). That includes a 31-28 ATS record last year.
That’s not bad considering the name of the game is “underdogs” and I can only select from those football teams catching the points — teams that often lurk near the bottom of the NFL betting power ratings.
Handicapping underdogs is actually the anti-first impression: a delicate dance that requires seeing the “good” in bad teams and the “bad” in good teams, all while monitoring the market perception, injuries, and any other underlying edge that could give that pup a little extra pop.
All that said, if you really want to win someone over with a first impression: pick some winners.
On to NFL Week 1…
NFL picks against the spread for Week 1
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) pick
The 2022 Buffalo Bills are making one hell of a first impression on bettors ahead of their Week 1 opener in Los Angeles.
That positive perception has moved the defending Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams from 1-point favorites to +2.5 home underdogs versus Buffalo, with a one-sided ticket count and handle on the Bills trying to powerbomb bookies through a tailgate table Thursday night.
While expectations (and Super Bowl odds) soar for Buffalo, this team is not without its blemishes and the Rams are just the crew to exploit them. Two of the Bills’ biggest strengths from 2021 are suddenly soft spots entering 2022.
The offensive line ranked among the best in the NFL last season, but preseason rankings are downgrading this group due to new (yet older) faces and unproven protectors stepping into starting roles. The Bills’ O-line isn’t going to be bad by any means, it's just not going to be as great as it was last season. And last season is very much the foundation for Week 1 odds.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, the L.A. pass rush makes even great offensive lines look like rusty lawn chairs. Josh Allen is solid under pressure but won’t have time to allow deep strikes to develop. Plus, this offense is behind the curve in adjustments with promoted OC Ken Dorsey calling plays for the first time ever in the wake of Brian Daboll being poached by the Giants.
Another sore spot for Buffalo heading into Week 1 is the absence of top corner Tre’Davious White, who will start the year on the PUP list while recovering from a torn ACL in Week 12 of last year. This secondary was heralded among the best in 2021 but built much of that reputation on the noodle-armed shoulders of bad opposing quarterbacks.
Just look at this sad-sack shit list of rival passers: Ben Roethlisberger, Tua Tagovailoa (x2), Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Mike White, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, Mac Jones (x3), Cam "F-ing" Newton, Week 17 Falcons' Matt Ryan, and Zach “How’s Your Mom?” Wilson.
Things weren’t so cut and dry when Buffalo played quality QBs, especially after White went down, giving up big passing yardage in OT losses to Tom Brady and the Bucs and, of course, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Enter Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford and his elite group of pass catchers like Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson II, and (potentially) Van Jefferson.
Stafford’s elbow issue over the summer is one of the reasons bettors were gun-shy on the Rams and ran this opening spread over the fence. But it’s been full steam ahead for Stafford over the past month, according to team reports, and Matty is out there slinging the snot out of fake Amazon Prime balls (CGI maybe?) on Insta.
The Rams aren’t getting the same respect reserved for defending champs, with their futures tempered and look-ahead lines reflecting a passive public perception. While things could go sideways for L.A. as the season plays out, the Rams will never be as healthy and as ready for a game as they are for this Week 1 opener.
PICK: Rams +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals pick
It’s a new age in the AFC North. The Steelers, long-time gatekeepers of the division, are projected to finish last among that group of four in 2022 — handing Mike Tomlin his first losing season in what will be 16 years at Pittsburgh's helm.
But before we put the Terrible Towels in the dirt and crown the Bengals (or Ravens or, hell, even Browns) the new rulers of the AFC North, we’re grabbing a near touchdown with the Steelers, who will go down swinging in Week 1.
Pittsburgh still boasts a Top-5 defense in the league and this pass rush will kick the tires (and asses) of a revamped offensive line in Cincinnati. The Bengals spent big on improving the protection around Joe Burrow, but I’m not as high on this unit as most.
There are many new faces up front, and Burrow and the O-line haven’t had any full-speed reps or even a full camp to cook up chemistry due to early injuries to OLs and the QB’s appendectomy limiting his work since late July.
Cincinnati also lost TE C.J. Uzomah and replace him with Hayden Hurst, who’s nowhere near the same pass blocker — a needed role against Pittsburgh’s pressure which will bring more blitz after adding Brian Flores as a defensive assistant.
This Bengals’ pass protection will be much improved from last year — which isn’t tough considering how bad it sucked — but will still be ironing out wrinkles against one of the most dangerous defenses around this Sunday.
Overall, the weight of an AFC title and near Super Bowl win set the bar very high for Cincinnati. Last year’s team benefited from a bizarre year in the division and an advantageous home stretch that bred magical momentum and had this team playing its best football at the right time. That magic has long burned out.
As for the Steelers, the market perception is down — namely due to the offense. But it’s addition by subtraction with Ben Roethlisberger retiring. His dead arm and slow feet were an albatross around this offense's neck. While Mitchell Trubisky (who I expect will start Week 1) isn’t the sexiest offseason add, his mobility and positive play in the preseason put Pittsburgh ahead of its 2021 QB quandaries.
I would have loved to get the Steelers at a cool touchdown back in July, but I’ll grab +6.5 as this spread could shrink once RB Najee Harris gets the official OK (“on track” for Week 1 after foot sprain) ahead of Week 1.
PICK: Steelers +6.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Washington Commanders pick
Two franchises shrouded in shittiness. Which one comes clean in Week 1?
The Jaguars look to be pulling themselves out of the toilet, with a smart hire in Doug Pederson and the formation of a franchise player in Trevor Lawrence, along with a talent-rich defense ready to make a jump in 2022.
The Commanders, on the other hand, may have a spiffy new name but this is still the Washington “Whatevers” - a club constantly clouded in controversy. They’re playing with a castoff QB, who’s received worse reviews from his past teams than that electric “Tummy Tightener” you bought for $14 off Wish.
Oh, and you know who has more intel on Carson Wentz than anybody? The dapper Jon Hamm doppelganger in the visor on the Jaguars’ sideline.
Pederson drafted Wentz while with Philadelphia and took him to the brink of MVP conversations before injuries snuffed out his shot at Super Bowl glory and a steady decline in performance forced the head coach to bench his star pupil in place of Jalen Hurts in 2020.
As for Pederson’s new padawan, Lawrence received “meh” reviews in the preseason but has a promising team around him. Not just in terms of skill players - a group that turned heads during preseason reps - but also a stop unit that’s turning to Mike Caldwell to get the most from linebackers Josh Allen and No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker.
Things look much better for Jacksonville’s defense than the Commanders at this point since Chase Young is sidelined for the first four games and starting safety Kamren Curl could also sit out Week 1 (thumb).
This line has been dropping across the industry after opening as high as Jaguars +4, but there are a few Jacksonville +3.5 hooks out there and we’ll need that push protection on a field goal game.
PICK: Jaguars +3.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
