The Chinese zodiac may say 2021 is the Year of the Ox, but for anyone throwing down some NFL betting action in 2021, they know it’s the Year of the Dog.
NFL underdogs are 77-56-1 ATS heading into Week 10 – a 57.8 percent success rate for those teams getting the points. That record has been helped along by a 20-7-1 ATS run for pointspread pups the past two weeks (73.2%), including a 10-3 ATS mark for dogs in Week 9.
Hell, you’d have to go all the way back to… 2020… to find underdog…results like… that. Huh.
Yep, as impressive as NFL underdogs have been in 2021, last year saw a near identical record of 77-56 ATS (57.9%) for dogs through the opening nine weeks of action. That was the Year of the Rat, by the way.
Ox, Rat, Dog, whatever year it is, my weekly pointspread picks column is grateful for the extra punch from pups. Here are my favorite Week 10 NFL Underdogs picks.
NFL Underdogs Week 10 picks
- Atlanta Falcons (+10) at Dallas Cowboys
- Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers
- Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Denver Broncos
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Atlanta Falcons (+10) at Dallas Cowboys pick
While most see Dallas’ upset loss to Denver as a hiccup, Cowboys fans (like me) see it as a frothy hot “vurp” that if not quickly swallowed will turn into a full-fledged puke fest.
Gross right? Well, so was Week 9’s effort.
Hidden under the veil of game-changing takeaways is a disaster of a Dallas defense. The Cowboys allow six yards per play to opponents (T-29th), getting roughed up through the air and on the ground, while allowing foes to score touchdowns on 68 percent of their trips inside the red zone.
The Falcons seem like the perfect matchup for America’s Team: an offense that has a history of giveaways and red-zone woes. But let’s not pop the Week 10 confetti just yet.
Atlanta has started to flip the script on that narrative in past weeks, with this offense getting comfy in Arthur Smith’s schemes. The Falcons have won three of their last four contests and rank among the NFL’s elite in passing, with an EPA per dropback of +0.230 and a 53 percent success rate when throwing the football in that span.
Turnovers are still troublesome (four over the past three games), but Atlanta put some demons to bed with a win at New Orleans last weekend, pulling out of a tailspin after blowing a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter to win 27-25 on a last-second field goal.
Quarterback Matt Ryan posted his best game since Week 11 of the 2017 season versus that vaunted NOLA defense, according to QBR, passing for 343 yards on 23 for 30 attempts with two touchdowns and zero interceptions (93.8 QBR).
The Falcons scored TDs on three of five red-zone tries, facing the second-best RZ defense in the NFL. They own a near 63 percent touchdown percentage inside foes’ 20-yard lines on the year (12th), with a Red Zone DVOA ranked No. 9 in the league (15.9%) at Football Outsiders.
Dallas, on the other hand, sits 20th in Red Zone Defense DVOA and has allowed its last three opponents to score touchdowns on five of seven red-zone attempts, including a 2-for-3 day from Denver last week.
PICK: Atlanta +10 (-125)
Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers pick
This spread has dropped from Packers -5.5 to as low as -3 with Seattle getting back QB Russell Wilson and Green Bay still uncertain of Aaron Rodgers’ Week 10 status, following his COVID fiasco. If you like the Seahawks this Sunday, grab them now with many books still hanging the half-point hook on the underdog.
If Rodgers does suit up (we’ll know Saturday), this spread will likely go back to -5.5 and while that’s a two-point jump from the current line, it’s through the dead numbers of -4 and -5, which don’t hold as much weight as line moves through -3 and -6. As well, you can always bet Seattle again if this spread does climb. But if Rodgers is out, you can rest easy knowing you’ll have solid closing line value on Seattle.
The Seahawks are coming off a bye after a few frantic weeks trying to stay afloat with Wilson recovering from an ugly finger injury. While Seattle went 1-2 SU in those games, it battled hard for bettors and covered in each of those three outings.
Funny enough, it was the much-maligned Seahawks defense that stepped up the furthest in that span. Seattle allowed an average of just 4.5 yards per play against the likes of Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Jacksonville and ranked No. 4 in EPA allowed per play (-0.099) over that span.
Granted, those foes are a far cry from the offensive engine that is Green Bay, but the Seahawks managed to control tempo and possession on offense (versus defenses better than the Packers), with an average TOP of 32:47 since Week 6. Now add in Wilson’s playmaking ability and two weeks to prep for the Cheeseheads, and there’s a lot to like about the Seahawks in Week 10.
And, for shits and giggles: since the Danger Russ Era began in 2012, Seattle is 19-8-2 ATS as a road underdog (69%) with a 2-1 ATS mark in that role this season.
PICK: Seattle +3.5 (-115)
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Denver Broncos pick
I’ve had this game lined up for most of the week, starting with pinning Denver as my top letdown spot for Week 10 after last Sunday’s stunner in Big D. Then I broke down the best bets for this non-conference matchup, putting my chips on the underdog Eagles – despite my recent gambling history with this team.
Philadelphia has become my white whale of wagering, zigging when I zag and blowing up follow and fade bets alike. The Eagles have cost me the past three weeks, but I don’t hold a grudge. Instead, I’m banking on Philly to give the Broncos fits, namely this RPO offense that has torn up the turf in recent weeks.
The Eagles have averaged 182.3 yards on the ground over the last three contests, with a mix of Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts sharing the carries. They’ve picked up over 13 first downs per game with the run in that stretch (23 total per game) – rolling with an EPA per handoff of +0.039.
Philadelphia faces a Denver stop unit ranked 22nd in Run Defense DVOA and allows 5.1 yards per carry in its last three showings (second-most in that span). The last time Vic Fangio's guys took on an offense like this was a 23-7 home loss to Baltimore, with the Ravens amassing 20 first downs and controlling possession for more than 33 minutes.
Defensively, the Eagles keep things pretty safe - limited blitzing and Cover-2 - and have held their own against much stiffer QB competition than Denver’s popgun passing attack, taking on the likes of Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, and Justin Herbert in the first half of the season.
Sorry Teddy B, you’re just not at that level.
PICK: Eagles +3 (-115)
Last week: 2-1 ATS +0.82 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 18-9 ATS +7.07 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
