I don’t know what makes me feel worse: the flu virus coursing through my veins or another losing week of NFL Underdog picks. Either way, it’s been a shit seven days.
My NFL picks and predictions have had a tough time through nine weeks of action, despite what’s been a profitable run for those teams getting the points. And while I feel like I’m missing out, I don’t feel like I’m missing by much.
Getting over a slump is just like getting over an illness. There’s no one-dose magic elixir that’s going to make it right again. You know the steps you need to take to get well: avoid extra exertion, get some rest, have healthy habits, and take your medicine.
For the sports bettor on a skid, that means don’t chase those losses by betting more. You may want to actually step back and bet less. Remind yourself of smart betting habits and, of course, take the time and do your research.
The road to recovery starts in Week 10 with my three favorite NFL underdog bets. And if these go south, I’ll blame it on the cough syrup.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 10
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick
Tampa Bay picks up a slim win over an equally disappointing Rams team, and suddenly is being treated like an NFC contender again? C'mon.
Tom Brady and the Bucs barely got by L.A. last Sunday to improve to 4-5 SU and now they’re giving a field goal to the 6-3 Seattle Seahawks for a neutral-site game in Germany Sunday morning. It just doesn’t add up, no matter the geography.
This trip to Munich is a haul for both teams, but as NFL Network’s Sara Walsh discovered, the travel time for Tampa and Seattle – gate to gate – differs by no more than an hour.
Sure, the Seahawks are plowing through more time zones for this 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff (6:30 a.m. PT), but this West Coast organization deals with tricky travel spots frequently and successfully navigated a European trip to London in 2018 – a well-planned blueprint the team followed this week.
What we get from these teams on the field is far more important than how they got there. And when it comes to Seattle, what we’re getting is a Top-5 team. The Seahawks sit No. 5 in Team DVOA at Football Outsiders and bring a four-game winning run with them to Munich.
The Seattle offense continues to pump out the points in spite of our low preseason projections (No. 2 in points per play) and overall, the squad has looked especially sound on both sides of the ball during this current streak.
The defense, which was the biggest blemish, has tightened its belt over those four wins, boasting the second-lowest EPA allowed per play since Week 6. A rabid pass rush is the main catalyst, with Seattle collecting 19 of its total 27 sacks on the year during that four-game span. The Seahawks don’t blitz much (just 16.8% of dropbacks) but when they do, edge rushers like Uchenna Nwosu are making those packages pop.
Tampa Bay has done a good job limiting the amount of punishment Tom Brady has absorbed, but that’s about the only bright spot for this offense. And quite frankly, a lot of that is on Brady just getting rid of the ball and protecting his own neck, boasting the shortest time in pocket (2.1 seconds).
Since scoring 31 points in a shootout loss to Kansas City in Week 4, the Buccaneers have managed just 21, 18, three, 22, and 16 points in the past five games heading into Week 10. Tampa Bay ranks out near the bottom in points per play in that stretch and now has to suddenly find a way to jumpstart this offense for an early morning start on the other side of the planet.
Geography be damned. This spread should be much closer to a pick’em.
PICK: Seahawks +3 (-118 at FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns (+4) at Miami Dolphins pick
The Miami Dolphins offense is starting to bare the fruit we saw blossom before Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion early in the season, like oranges soaking up the South Beach sun since Tua’s return in Week 7.
The Cleveland Browns, however, have what it takes to freeze that growth and damage that crop of points in Week 10.
The Browns are fresh off the bye and building on two very impressive defensive efforts in their last two games out. Cleveland checked Baltimore to mere 254 yards and 23 points in a slim Week 8 loss then stymied Cincinnati for 229 yards and 13 points for a victory on Monday Night Football in Week 9.
What’s more, the Cleveland pass rush amassed eight sacks in those efforts – almost half of the team’s total 19 on the season – and DE Myles Garrett is rounding into form with 4.5 sacks in the past three games and will be at his healthiest for this trip to Miami.
Adding to that strength up front is the potential return of shutdown corner Denzel Ward, who joins a talented and versatile Browns secondary matching up with the Dolphins’ dangerous downfield threats. Miami has impressed the past two games but has done so against the likes of Detroit and Chicago – two of the worst stop units in the land.
Perhaps the biggest thing working against Miami’s offense will be its own defense, which is just as bad as those previous opponents. The Fins surrendered a butt load of points to the Bears and Lions and sit 25th in EPA allowed per play on the season.
The Browns rank out No. 7 in the offensive flip of that stat, hanging their hat on a dominating run game also merits elite status in many advanced metrics. Behind the one-two punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland can grind out possessions and eat up the clock (No. 1 in TOP at 32:31), parking Mike McDaniel’s potent playbook on the sideline.
PICK: Browns +4 (-121 at Pinnacle)
Washington Commanders (+11) at Philadelphia Eagles pick
The last time the Washington Commanders played the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington needed a spatula and a wet/dry vac to get QB Carson Wentz off the turf after being sacked nine times in Week 3. Philadelphia rolled to a 24-3 victory as a 6-point road favorite.
But with these NFC East rivals scheduled for a primetime return meeting in Philly Monday night, I pull a quote from the immortal Biggie Smalls: “Things done changed”.
Wentz went down with a finger injury and former starting QB Taylor Heinicke is back under center, igniting somewhat of a renaissance in D.C. The Commanders are 2-1 SU since the switch at quarterback and nearly made it 3-0, if not for a fourth-quarter collapse to the Vikings last weekend.
To be fair, Heinicke isn’t the reason why Washington is suddenly showing life. In fact, that pulse started pounding before Wentz went down. The Commanders’ defense is the cause.
This unit has kept the team competitive since Week 5, boasting the 10th-lowest EPA per play allowed over the past five games, giving up 21 points or less in each of those outings. That’s a sharp contrast from the club that sat 20th in that metric in the opening four weeks of football.
The defensive line is playing up to its potential, not just helping generate the third-highest pressure rate in the league, but also slamming the door on opposing run games as well. On the season, Washington sits No. 2 in run defense DVOA as well as EPA allowed per handoff – a good place to be when facing Jalen Hurts and this Eagles attack.
And getting back to Heinicke, he’s been a mild upgrade for the offense (and much more mobile at QB) but his worth to Washington can’t really be measured by the metrics. He’s a leader in the locker room and guys are willing to work for him – unlike the uninspired play from Wentz.
The Commanders keep fighting, producing 37 of their total 57 points in the second half over the three games with Heinicke at QB. With a spread this beefy, that trend could come in handy against a Philadelphia offense that flops in the final 30 minutes (20.1 1H ppg vs. 8.0 2H ppg).
The Eagles will more than likely extend their record to 9-0 on Monday night, but will have a much tough time putting space between them and the Commanders than they did back in Week 3.
PICK: Commanders +11 (-110 at bet365)
Last week: 1-2 ATS (-1.16 units) (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 11-16 (-6.31 units) (Risking 1 unit per play)
