For those fans who plug into NFL Red Zone for “seven hours of commercial-free football” every Sunday, you’re well aware of the infamous “Witching Hour”.
Host Scott Hanson tees up this crucial point in play about midway through the fourth quarter, warning us that this is when “wins become losses and losses become wins”.
That statement goes double for anyone with action on the line.
Week 10 is very much the “Witching Hour” for the entire season, when good teams become great and bad ones get even worse. Those “bad ones” are cause for concern when writing a weekly column titled “NFL Underdogs”.
Since 1985, underdogs have won outright at a near 35% clip from Week 1 to Week 10 while covering the spread as 52.5% winners in that long-term frame.
However, after Week 10, those dogs see a significant drop in fortune, winning 31.7% of the time and covering the spread at just a 49.9% rate from Week 11 to Week 18.
And after watching point spread pups go 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS last week, you’ve got to think that the 2024 season is ahead of schedule as it pertains to this annual decline of the dog.
In a week in which careful decisions are paramount in our lives, we have to be extra selective when taking the points with our NFL picks and predictions — not only in Week 10 but from here on out.
Here are my three best NFL underdog bets.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 14-13 ATS
NFL Week 10 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens pick
My pick: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
(-120 at BetMGM)
Given the health issues for Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson in recent seasons, football bettors have only had a few head-to-head matchups between these top AFC North quarterbacks.
Our last Burrow vs. Jackson showdown was Week 5, and it didn’t disappoint. The Baltimore Ravens won a 41-38 thriller in overtime as a 2.5-point road favorite. Flash forward to Week 10, and the Ravens are laying -6.5 at home to burrow the Cincinnati Bengals.
Sure, the win/loss records are very different for these rivals, but if we’ve learned anything from betting on the AFC North, it’s that the old cliché of “throw away the standings” holds true.
Since 2015, AFC North underdogs are 59-46-3 ATS in regular season divisional games (56%), and if you take out games involving the sad-sack Cleveland Browns, the remaining three members (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh) are a collective 47-22-2 ATS as divisional dogs (68%).
There’s not much separating the Ravens and Bengals right now. Certainly not 6.5 points.
Both teams have explosive offenses ranked Top 10 in most of the fancy analytics, and both have underperforming defenses that have dropped to the back half in the flip of those metrics.
Baltimore, specifically, has dwindled in the defensive measurements since that Week 5 meeting with Cincinnati, ranking 25th in EPA allowed per play with the weakness in the pass defenses. Burrow torched the Ravens for almost 400 yards and five touchdowns in that last clash.
We’re seeing some sharper books dropping below the key number of Ravens -6 to -5.5, so snatch the Cincinnati +6.5 while you can.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Washington Commanders
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
(-115 at FanDuel)
Alright, let’s get the trend out the way.
During his tenure with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has covered the spread in 64% of regular season games as an underdog. That’s a good one.
But what really interests me with this trend is not only has Tomlin and the Steelers been fantastic when getting points, but 60% of those games as an underdog have seen the final score land Under the total.
Why is this important in Week 10? Well, the last thing Tomlin wants is to get into a shootout with the high-powered Washington Commanders.
There are two trains of thought when it comes to this non-conference contest:
- Washington and Jayden Daniels haven’t faced a defense this good.
- Pittsburgh’s defense hasn't faced a QB and an offense this strong.
Both of these things could be correct, but given Tomlin and the Steelers have had two weeks to watch and prep for Daniels & Co., I’m going to lean toward one of the greatest coaches in NFL history.
On top of that, Pittsburgh’s offense has been solid since making the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback. The Steelers rank No. 5 in EPA per play since Week 7 and take on a horrible Washington defense that looks much better than it truly is thanks to three straight shite opponents.
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
My pick: Arizona Cardinals +1.5
(-120 at FanDuel)
As of this writing, only a handful of books have the Arizona Cardinals as an underdog in Week 10. Some shops are dealing the flip of this spread, with the Cards laying -1.5.
Arizona is on a three-game streak — squeaking out wins against the Chargers and Dolphins — but really flexed its muscle in the 29-9 win over the Bears last Sunday. The Cardinals dug in their heels against a disruptive Chicago defense, pounding the ball for 213 rushing yards on 34 attempts.
Arizona has been efficient with the football during this winning streak, averaging more than six yards per play and ranking No. 8 in EPA per snap and success rate per play since Week 7.
The Cardinals have a well-rounded approach on offense with the ground game going, the passing attack flowing through Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride, and QB Kyler Murray able to make plays with his legs when things break down.
As for the New York Jets, they're coming off a mini-bye after a desperation win versus the Texans at home last Thursday, but this team is far from fixed.
The Jets rank 26th in EPA per handoff as well as opponent success rate per carry and allowed Houston RB Joe Mixon to run for 106 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries — even though they knew he was the only viable skill player healthy for the Texans.
Imagine what Arizona can do with all those offensive options.
Not intended for use in MA.
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