NFL Week 16 Picks and Predictions: Take The Points in Ravens-Niners Tilt

If you’re like me, you’ve been putting some miles on the Christmas movies this month.

I’ve watched all the mainstays, like “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation”, and sat down for a few holiday flicks with the kids, such as “A Charlie Brown Christmas” and every variation of “The Grinch.”

Most Xmas movies are formulaic. The protagonist is put into some sort of yuletide pickle, bad things happen, and they’re eventually bailed out by a Christmas miracle. Cue celebrating in the snow while the end credits roll to “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)” by Darlene Love.

My latest NFL picks could use a little of that holiday help in Week 16.

I’m on a 2-7 ATS slide in the NFL odds since Week 13, including a 0-3 ATS “eggnogging” last weekend. I’ve fallen below .500 with my column record for the first time this season and that’s well off the pace when you consider you need to hit at better than 52% to turn even a modest profit.

If my NFL Underdogs column was a Xmas movie, this would be the low part. It would be the scene where the sweet couple breaks up on Xmas Eve, the evil boss tells everyone they’re fired, or Santa Claus crashes his sleigh and all hope is lost.

Will the Week 16 odds offer up a timely miracle to help save the holiday...or in this case my bankroll?

'Tis the season.

Last week: 0-3 ATS
Season 21-22-2 ATS

NFL Week 16 picks and predictions

• Steelers +2.5
• Colts +1.5
• Ravens +5.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) pick

Speaking of Xmas movies, the Pittsburgh Steelers couldn’t have scripted a better week to give veteran backup Mason Rudolph the start.

The guy’s name is RUDOLPH for crying out loud!

Just like the plucky red-nosed reindeer, Pittsburgh is a live underdog. The Steelers are catching as many as +2.5 points at home to the rival Cincinnati Bengals and their surprise star, Jake Browning.

Browning has lifted Cincinnati to three straight wins and has this offense humming like Joe Burrow never got hurt. However, he’ll possibly be down his top weapon in WR Ja’Marr Chase, and now ventures to the Steel City to face a Pittsburgh defense that held Browning and the Bengals to only 10 points in a 16-10 road win back in Week 12.

The Steelers defense is the only reason Pittsburgh has anything to play for at this point in the season, dragging the punchless offense to the doorstep of a Wild Card berth. Casting Mitchell Trubisky off to the "Island of Misfit QBs" in favor of Rudolph is not a downgrade, considering how awful Trubisky was.

The Steelers, who ran up and down on Cincy in that Week 14 win, also catch a break with the Bengals losing the lynchpin of their defense, D.J. Reader. Cincinnati was already bad against the ground game, ranking 26th in EPA allowed per handoff and getting bowled for 4.7 yards per carry (31st).

Pittsburgh is 2-2 against the spread as a home underdog in 2023 but has been one of the best home pup plays during Mike Tomlin’s tenure, boasting a 16-6-3 ATS count when getting points in front of the Terrible Towels-waiving faithful.

All together now!

Rudolph with your arm so right, just lose by two or less tonight!

PICK: Steelers +2.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons pick

Another team making a move at quarterback is the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Birds have had enough of Desmond Ridder and are putting their playoff hopes in the hands of Taylor Heinicke.

This swap under center has won over bettors eager to play Atlanta, knocking the home side from as far as +2.5 to as high as -1.5 for Week 16.

Also fueling that line move is a series of injuries to the Indianapolis Colts’ skill positions, with RBs Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss questionable and WR Michael Pittman in concussion limbo. Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen had positive updates on those running backs but was mum on Pittman’s place in the protocol.

Let’s say Indy’s injuries are worth a point to the spread, which leaves a 3-point shuffle due to Heinicke getting the nod. That’s the same Heinicke who completed 55% of his passes for an average of only 6.7 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 47.8 before getting the hook for Ridder in Week 10.

I’m not buying it.

Indianapolis has a much better coaching combo in Steichen and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley compared to the embattled Arthur Smith and DC Ryan Nielsen, and the Colts definitely have the edge in QB, with Gardner Minshew finding another gear the past three weeks.

The Colts are also pushing for the postseason, locked in a race to the top of the AFC South and juking for a Wild Card spot should the division crown not come.

Indianapolis, which owns the rest advantage in Week 16, has won five of its last six games and isn’t rattled on the road — especially inside the meek Mercedes-Benz Stadium — going 4-2 ATS as a visitor. 

PICK: Colts +1.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers pick

A big part of the San Francisco 49ers’ success is their ability to jump out to big leads early on. San Francisco owns an average first-half margin of +6.9 points on the season.

Holding solid leads heading into the second half forces foes to play from behind and lean into the passing game to catch up quickly. Not only does that lure them straight into the jaws of this dominating defense, but it also masks the glaring weakness for the Niners: stopping the run.

The Baltimore Ravens are the perfect team to exploit that soft spot. Not only are the Ravens the best rushing attack in the land, but they’re even better out of the blocks, boasting an average 1H margin of +8.8 points per contest.

With San Francisco unable to create that space on the scoreboard, Baltimore can play bully ball against a run stop that ranks 29th in EPA allowed per handoff. The 49ers have been flattened for 5.1 yards per carry over the past three games, most recently allowing Arizona to run 30 times for 234 yards on the ground.

Baltimore is also a suitable foil for Kyle Shanahan’s schemes on offense. The Niners depend on pre-snap motion to confuse rival defenders and create gaps and mismatches in the coverage. However, the Ravens have a veteran corps that is among the best at communicating and adjusting to those curveballs.

According to The Baltimore Banner, this Ravens defense is tied for second in fewest yards allowed per pass with pre-snap motion and first in EPA allowed per pre-snap motion pass. Baltimore is also one of the best at sniffing out short shots in the flat (a staple of Shanahan's playbook), allowing the third-lowest success rate per throw and only 4.1 yards per attempt on passes behind the line of scrimmage.

If this isn’t enough to make you excited about taking the points with the Ravens, remember that Baltimore is an insane 19-3-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a point-spread pup.

PICK: Ravens +5.5 (-109 at Pinnacle)

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic