NFL Week 17 Picks and Predictions: Fins Up

What do New Year’s Eve and NFL favorites have in common in Week 17? 

They’re both overrated.

Or at least we hope so, for the sake of my NFL Underdogs picks and predictions.

The NFL odds in the closing weeks of the regular season are tricky waters to navigate. Usually, by this point, the bulk of postseason tickets are spoken for and plenty of teams getting points have more incentive to turn on the tank rather than fight to the finish. 

But not so much in 2023… or what’s left of it.

With so many playoff spots still available, many Week 17 odds pups have added pop and look to ring in the New Year with a solid showing. 

My New Year’s aspirations are the same. 

You can save the fireworks, champagne toasts, and drunkenly butchering the words to “Auld Lang Syne”. I just want to close out 2023 as a winner.

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 23-23-2 ATS

NFL Week 17 picks and predictions

• Steelers +3.5
• Dolphins +3.5
• Titans +3.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Steelers (+3.5) vs Seahawks pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers picked the perfect time for their best offensive effort of the season, scoring 34 points on 397 yards in a win over Cincinnati in Week 16. 

Saturday’s victory moves Pittsburgh into ninth in the AFC pecking order and breathes life into Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons (16).

The Steelers, who expect Mason Rudolph to be under center even with Kenny Pickett coming back from ankle surgery, travel across the country for a non-conference clash with the Seahawks.

While the Steelers’ uptick on offense is a plus, this matchup is all about Pittsburgh’s pass rush getting to Geno Smith. 

The Seattle Seahawks QB is among the most pressured passers in the league, feeling the heat on 25.3% of drop backs and playing in front of an offensive line that ranks 24th in pass block win rate, watching its QBs suffer 36 sacks on the season.

The Steelers bring bodies from everywhere, boasting the fourth-highest blitz rate, and have a gruesome twosome at linebacker in T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith powering that pass rush. 

Smith sees his production dip when under pressure and facing the blitz, with his yards per attempt sinking and his interceptions climbing. While he’s thrown only nine interceptions on the year, his accuracy sits among the bottom of qualified starting QBs with only 73.5% of his attempts on target.

Seattle has a bad habit of finding itself in close games – no matter the competition – with eight outings decided by one possession, including back-to-back 20-17 wins the last two weeks.

One miscue from Smith could keep this Week 17 tighter than the 3.5-point spread.

PICK: Steelers +3.5 (-109 at BetRivers)

Dolphins (+3.5) vs Ravens pick

The top two teams in the AFC ring in the New Year with style in a potential conference championship preview.

Both the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens are fresh from marquee wins, but that half-point hook on the field goal is intriguing and perhaps not warranted. 

Sure, Baltimore beat up San Francisco and settled the MVP odds debate this past Monday night but the Ravens defense still allowed 429 yards to the 49ers – third most in Week 16. Brock Purdy’s four interceptions stunted those drives and let Baltimore off the hook, considering the Niners picked up 6.3 yards per play in the loss.

Miami is just as efficient as San Francisco on offense with a better QB at the wheel and a playbook that keeps rival defenses guessing. The Week 16 game film is extra valuable in the hands of Mike McDaniel, who can dissect the faults of his former team and apply those adjustments to his play calling in Week 17.

The Ravens run a lot of man-to-man coverage on defense, which suits McDaniel and this Miami passing game just fine. Tua Tagovailoa has two of the best weapons in one-on-one scenarios in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – the latter of which missed practice Wednesday (ankle), but McDaniel feels optimistic about Waddle’s Week 17 availability.

And then there’s the Dolphins defense. Miami has been one of the best stop units in the second half of the schedule, ranking No. 2 in EPA allowed per play, No. 3 in success rate allowed, and – most importantly given this matchup – No. 2 in success rate per handoff allowed.

Vic Fangio’s defense is dangerous too. Miami has 23 takeaways this season, with 14 of those coming in the past six outings. He’ll utilize his athletic defenders to spy and disrupt Lamar Jackson, after doing a good job containing dual-threat QBs like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, and Josh Allen earlier this season.

PICK: Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Titans (+4.5) vs Texans pick

With Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud back at practice and in Stage 4 of the five-step concussion protocol, the Texans jumped from -3.5 to -4.5 on Wednesday.

That adjustment may seem a little short when you consider how great Stroud’s been in his first year. But tempering that movement is a series of injuries and ailments up and down the Houston depth chart.

The Texans are limping to the finish line, with those missing pieces playing a large role in the team’s 2-3 SU record in the past five games. One of those wins was an overtime victory at Tennessee with backup QB Case Keenum at the wheel in Week 15.

That razor-thin 19-16 score was another close contest for the Titans, who have played in four straight games decided by three points or less – including two losses in OT that would have had Tennessee in playoff contention had they swung the other way.

The Titans’ 1-3 SU mark since Week 13 doesn’t reflect their improvements in that span. Tennessee’s offense has jumped up to 11th in EPA per play – versus 15th in the first dozen weeks – and the defense moved from 31st in EPA allowed per play in the opening 11 games to 22nd in that advanced metric the past four outings.

Rookie QB Will Levis is on track to return for Week 17 after sitting out last Sunday’s loss to Seattle due to an ankle injury – a loss that falls on the shoulders of veteran QB Ryan Tannehill, who can’t and won’t push the ball downfield.

In contrast, Levis adds a big-play threat (leads starting QBs in intended air yards per attempt) against a thin Texans secondary that has allowed 57 explosive passes of 20 yards or more (tied for fifth most) and sits fourth in air yards against.

Getting the Titans on the other side of +4 is a solid number, with the 4-point spread an undervalued key point in football betting (4.96%), ranked just behind those more familiar margins of three, six, seven, 10, and 14.

And of course, Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel makes the most of those points, owning a career 28-20-2 ATS record as an underdog in the regular season (58%), including a 15-7 ATS count (67%) when getting four or more points.

PICK: Tennessee Titans +4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)  

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic