Christmas sneaks up on you like a blindside safety blitz.
One moment, you’re flipping the calendar to December and throwing out Thanksgiving leftovers. The next, it’s December 23 and you haven’t even started your holiday shopping.
CRUNCH!
With the Xmas play clock in single digits, plenty of us are in hurry-up mode as we search for last-minute gifts that don’t look like “last-minute” gifts.
Oh, and just to keep you on your toes, the NFL has spread the Week 17 odds schedule across the entire week, with games on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
That leaves very little time to shop for presents and shop for odds before December 25 and all the festivities and visiting that come with it. But before you botch your Christmas clock management like a Chicago Bears’ two-minute drill, I attempt to kill two turtledoves with one snowball in Week 17.
Not only am I giving you my favorite NFL underdog picks and predictions but pairing those point spread pups with good last-minute gift ideas. People helping people. It’s a powerful thing.
No matter how these underdog bets finish or how the gifts go over, I hope you have a safe and warm holiday season and best of luck with your Week 17 NFL picks.
Last week: 2-1 ATS.
Season: 24-21 ATS.
NFL Week 17 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
My pick: Broncos +3.5
(-120 at Pinnacle)
Our first last-minute present/pick pairing is the Denver Broncos +3.5 and… an automatic soap dispenser.
I got one a couple years back and quickly realized just how handy it was when you’re standing over the sink with “chicken hands” after prepping dinner and don’t want to contaminate your kitchen with salmonella.
Yeah, this isn’t a sexy gift by any means. In fact, it could seem pretty lame at first. But I guarantee you, whoever you give this soap dispenser to will call you in a few months and gush over how much they love it.
Sounds a lot like the Broncos’ 2024.
Denver wasn’t supposed to be in the playoff hunt come December but here we are, with this Week 17 trip to Cincinnati serving as the linchpin to the AFC postseason picture. On top of that, the Broncos have been keeping bettors so fresh and so clean with an NFL-best 11-4 ATS record.
Bookies continue to discount Denver or in this case overvalue the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are a bad football team yet have been priced as favorites in four straight outings. Skewing those power ratings is a lineup of broken opponents during the Bengals’ three-game winning streak.
Cincy’s high-flying offense has taken advantage of Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland — three teams with backup QBs at the wheel and stop units that rank in the back half of the league.
The Broncos are far from those foes. Denver is playing some of the best two-way football in the NFL right now, with a defense that’s rated among the elite and an offense really finding its way, jumping from 24th in EPA per play in the opening 10 weeks to 13th since Week 11. Those improvements will continue against a god-awful Cincinnati stop unit.
Denver does have to travel for this Saturday game but holds a significant rest and preparation edge over the Bengals. The Broncos lost to the Chargers last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye in Week 17 while Cincy is squeezed into a short week.
This line sits at a field goal at most shops, but you can find the half-point hook for a price.
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
My pick: Packers +1.5
(-110 at FanDuel)
Yes, I know. As of this writing, the Green Bay Packers still have a Week 16 finale to play before moving on to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17.
Well, I have Xmas shit to take care of too, so I’m banging this out early (usually write the column on Tuesdays). And honestly, the Packers should win comfortably on MNF, leaving this look-ahead spread unchanged.
The uninspired last-minute gift connection would be to pair the Cheeseheads with a fancy cheese gift pack, but I’m trying to give you quality ideas here and not make you look like a thoughtless asshole.
Instead, Green Bay +1.5 is the perfect pick to place alongside… a heated throw.
This gift selection is also very much on the nose when you think about those cold Wisconsin winter nights. This throw is simply a mini electric blanket, which is just the right amount of warm. If you’re like me, you have a woman in your life whose feet stay at the same temperatures as Walt Disney’s head. This heated throw is for that woman.
Your lady’s tootsies aren’t the only thing heating up this holiday season. This classic NFC North rivalry is scalding in Week 17, with the Vikings and Packers pushing for playoff spots. Minnesota is on the heels of the Lions in the division race, thanks in large part to a schedule softer than Santa’s stomach.
Sure, Sunday’s win at Seattle was solid, but the 8-7 Seahawks were the toughest test in a steady rotation of ho-hum teams on Minnesota’s calendar: Seattle, Chicago (twice), Atlanta, Arizona, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis.
The Packers present the first true test for the Vikings since October and are also fighting for the No. 6 spot in the NFC pecking order. Green Bay lost a 31-29 thriller to the Vikes at Lambeau Field back in Week 4, keeping it close despite four turnovers.
Jordan Love was responsible for three of those miscues but also passed for 389 yards and four touchdowns in what was his first game back from an early-season injury. Love has been incredibly sharp heading into the matchup with the Saints, keeping a clean sheet for INTs in the four games heading into Week 16 and rating as the top QB in the land in many advanced passing metrics since Week 11.
Give the gift of warmth this holiday season, with a heated throw and the hottest QB getting points in Week 17.
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Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (+5.5)
My pick: Patriots +5.5
(-110 at BetMGM)
I wish this spread was at the key number of New England Patriots +6, but it looks like the market is moving the other way with some books down to New England +5.
Picking the points with the Pats in Week 17 and the gift of… an Aura digital picture frame is the perfect combo of giving your home life while also reliving all your favorite memories.
I gave my wife one of these and we enjoy it every single day. What separates the Aura from other digital frames is the app integration easily uploading images from your phone. I swear I’m not being paid by this product. It’s just really good and a nice gift for any family far from home.
And speaking of being far from home, we find the Los Angeles Chargers on the other side of the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday, with the forecast in Foxborough calling for temperatures around freezing.
New England, on the other hand, is home for the holidays after living on the road for the past two months. Saturday’s battle with the Bolts is just the fourth time the Patriots have played at Gillette Stadium since Week 6.
Despite a 2-3-1 ATS record as a host, New England has kept those games close. Five of its six home games have been decided by six points or less. The Patriots put up a good fight against the Bills this weekend and ever since giving Drake Maye the keys, the offense has kept them competitive (5-3 ATS last eight games).
Los Angeles is wobbling toward the finish line, sitting sixth in the AFC playoff standings thanks a shootout win over Denver last Thursday. The Chargers defense is coming apart at the seams, plummeting from No. 2 in EPA allowed per play in the first 10 weeks to 24th in that advanced metric the past six contests.
So, let’s relive the good ole days this Saturday by loading up the Aura frame with family photos and betting on New England like it’s the 2000s.
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