I’ve spent the bulk of this week packing away the holiday decorations, stripping the Christmas tree bare, and jamming my 6-foot-4 frame into our storage space under the stairs for a real-life game of Tetris.
It seems like only yesterday that I was hunched over inside that tiny hideaway, hauling out those same bins and boxes while "Die Hard 2" played on the TV in the next room.
The holidays come and go faster than you can say, “Oh shit, the power bill”- much like the NFL season.
I can’t believe we’ve reached our NFL Week 18 point spread picks already. Despite having an extra week of NFL betting this year, the regular season blew past us like Ja’Marr Chase in one-on-one coverage. And now we sit on the precipice of the postseason, sifting through the tricky NFL Week 18 odds.
What are NFL underdog bettors to do?
You have four types of points spread pups in the final week of the regular season: 1. Dogs pushing for the postseason. 2. Non-qualifying dogs fighting to the finish. 3. Dogs with plane tickets/tee times already booked. 4. Dogs playing playoff-bound teams resting starters.
I primarily try to stick to the first two when it comes to my NFL Underdogs picks, but that’s not to say the latter two don’t have value tucked away, packed tightly somewhere in those point spreads like a holiday crawlspace.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 18
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams pick
A slow start to the season has come back to bite the Bay Area footballers in the ass, starting just 3-5 SU before posting a 6-2 SU mark since Week 10 to set up this “do or die” scenario. Defense has been the main calling card during that streak, with San Francisco ranked No. 1 in EPA allowed per play over those eight games (-0.379).
That surge from the stop unit started with a 31-10 win over the Rams in Week 10 – the Niners’ fifth straight victory over Los Angeles. San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in those recent meetings, covering as an underdog in four and limiting L.A. to 20 or fewer points in each of those paydays.
While this Week 18 matchup is a different beast than those past run-ins, the game plan remains the same for San Francisco: do it on defense. The chaos factor is if the Niners’ quarterback situation – whoever is under center – and if they can back up those stops with some points of their own.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan won’t commit to a starting quarterback for Week 18, with QB1 Jimmy Garoppolo returning to practice after missing time with a thumb injury and rookie passer Trey Lance coming off a strong second-half performance in Week 17, albeit versus Houston.
That’s definitely a little gamesmanship from Shanahan, as these two QBs present different challenges to the Rams’ defensive scheme, but whoever is making throws is doing so in one of the more underrated passing attacks in the league.
The 49ers don’t stack up the home run plays or the big yardage like other prime passing attacks, but they rank fifth in passing offense DVOA at Football Outsiders, second in yards per pass attempt, and top the NFL in yards after the catch per reception. They face an L.A. defense that has allowed the sixth-most YAC this year.
This spread has already moved from San Francisco +6.5 to +4.5 with money on the 49ers’ matchups and motivations. We missed the best of that number, but still like the Niners to at least keep this close.
PICK: 49ers +4.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) pick
The Saints need some help to make the playoff cut, hoping the 49ers lose to the Rams in conjunction with a victory at Atlanta on Sunday.
On the other sideline, the Falcons are playing for pride. They fell short of qualifying but can wrap up Arthur Smith’s first year as coach with a win in front of the ATL faithful and finish to 8-9 SU on the season, going Over their season win total of 7.5 (Over -130).
This NFC South showdown is just the second time Atlanta has played at home in more than a month and marks the first road game for the Saints since December 19. It’s also just the third away date for NOLA since November 21, benefitting from a home-friendly final stretch of schedule.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons are eager to get back out there after blowing a halftime lead at Buffalo last week. Second halves have been a problem for Atlanta (record skipping, record skipping) but in Week 18, it faces a New Orleans attack that doesn’t have the same firepower as those recent foes.
The Falcons' last three losses have come to Buffalo, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay – three passing offenses ranked No. 8 or better in DVOA. The Saints, on the other hand, have watched their aerial assault decay due to injuries over the course of the year. New Orleans ranks second-last in EPA per dropback since Week 9 (-0.331) when Jameis Winston got hurt.
Things have been especially dire on offense the past three weeks, in which NOLA has amassed a grand total of just 21 points – all but six off the foot of Brett Maher – and only a dozen of them in the second half.
The Kyle Pitts injury (hamstring) is one concern if you’re taking the points with the Falcons but even with this spread slimming from an opener of Saints -5.5/-6, it’s going to take a lot from New Orleans to cover the -4.5 on the road.
PICK: Falcons +4.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) pick
The final game of the regular season gives the Raiders as many as 3.5 points in a “win and in” showdown with the Chargers at home Sunday night.
With everything that’s gone on in Las Vegas this year (from front office exiles to Gruden’s scandal to Henry Ruggs), it’s kind of shocking that the Silver and Black are still fighting to move forward in the final game of the schedule.
Vegas has won three in a row since getting blasted 48-9 by Kansas City in Week 14 – the kind of late-season loss that would have buckled the best of teams, especially those slogging through the off-field drama that the Raiders have endured. But here they are.
What excuses do the Chargers have for being in the same dire situation: COVID? Injuries? C’mon! That’s life in the NFL now. Los Angeles has been a terribly inconsistent team since mid-October and the wheels have wobbled worst when playing on the road.
The Bolts, who rank fourth in points per play at home (0.459), see that production slump to 0.378 on the road, which isn’t enough to make up for the defensive shortcomings as a visitor. The Chargers give up 0.426 points per play away from SoFi (26th) and have played only one road game (a Week 15 loss at Houston) in more than a month.
The Raiders have been playing with a sense of urgency the past month, picking up two of those three wins on the road. Vegas has leaned heavily on the defense in those outings, giving up a combined total of only 47 points in this stretch and ranking out a No. 5 in EPA allowed per play since Week 15 (-0.330).
The offense hasn’t been able to complement those defensive efforts, with just 56 total points of output in those wins. Las Vegas may not have been scoring a ton but has at least chewed up the clock (33:41 average TOP last three games) and kept the chains moving on third downs (46.15% conversion rate). This unit also gets a shot in the arm with star tight end Darren Waller expected to return.
Most books are dealing L.A. -3 with the juice leaning toward a move to -3.5, while some outlying online shops have Las Vegas +3.5 (-133) available (or if you can’t wait for the +3.5 to show, you can buy it now around -130).
I’m taking that extra half-point hook, knowing that this Raiders team has seen plenty of finishes come down to the wire… like each of their last three games and five of their last six (all decided by four points or less).
PICK: Raiders +3.5 (-133)
Last week: 1-2 ATS -1.09 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 26-25 ATS -1.73 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
