NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions: Chargers Shock Limping Cowboys

One of the longest-running and largest underdog bets in the history of online sports betting may finally be coming to a close this week.

That’s right, we found Bigfoot. 

A video from a couple traveling on a train through the San Juan National Forest in Colorado apparently shows the mythical beast, taking a stroll down a hillside before popping a squat amongst the bushes.

People on a train in southwest Colorado may have spotted 'Bigfoot.' Thoughts?
Video: bt92.travels (IG user)#colorado #news #bigfoot pic.twitter.com/iX1naHGOI5

— OutThere Colorado (@outthereco) October 10, 2023

The existence of Sasquatch was a long-running novelty market open to wagering at some less-than-legal books during the Wild West days of internet gambling. The one-way option was listed around +10,000 — a 1% chance according to the implied liability.

Wow. 

And here I was thinking I was good at cashing in underdog bets after going a perfect 3-0 against the spread with my NFL picks in this column last week. 

That return and my 10-5 ATS mark so far in 2023 NFL odds have been good for a solid chunk of change, but it’s no Sasquatch money. 

Here’s to chasing down Bigfoot-sized profits as we dissect the Week 6 odds in my NFL Underdogs bets.

Last week: 3-0 ATS

Season: 10-5 ATS

NFL Week 6 picks and predictions

• Titans +4.5
• Seahawks +3
• Chargers +2.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+4.5) pick

The Baltimore Ravens bolted for foggy London Town shortly after Week 5 wrapped. And considering the embarrassing loss to the rival Steelers, can you blame them? 

Baltimore let victory slip through its fingers in a few spots last Sunday and now the Ravens cross the pond for a UK showcase against the Tennesee Titans in Week 6. 

Making the haul to London is tricky enough, but Baltimore’s schedule sends them away from home for the third straight game and the fourth time in five weeks. That’s a lot of time living out of a suitcase and away from the routine of life — on and off the field.

Look-ahead lines in the summer had this neutral-site contest set at Ravens -5 and most books opened with Baltimore as a 4-point chalk. However, that spread has bounced around at different books, sinking as low as -3.5 and climbing to as high as -4.5.

My power ratings lean toward the Ravens, but this is a strange spot in a neutral-site setting. We have a very low total on the board and two teams that can dominate the ball with their running games. 

The Titans' defense (without NT Teair Tart) was just blistered by the Colts’ rushing attack in Week 5, allowing 193 yards on 34 carries. However, before that game, Tennesse ranked among the best run stop units in terms of EPA allowed per handoff and success rate versus the run. The Titans are also still ninth in success rate allowed heading into Week 6.

Baltimore is all about the ground game, handing off on almost 51% of handoffs, but this offense has been anything but dominant. The Ravens are 20th in EPA per play and have been extremely sloppy with eight turnovers (six fumbles) so far.

They’ve converted on third-down tries at less than 36% over the past three games and have absolutely come undone in the fourth quarter. Baltimore has scored just 22 total points in final frames, ranking 31st in 4Q EPA per play, which could open the backdoor for the underdog. 

Vrabel continues to cover as a dog, going 3-1 ATS when getting points this season and owning a 26-15-1 ATS mark as a pup since taking the head coach job in the Music City (63%). We’ll see if that trend travels early on Sunday morning.

PICK: Tennessee Titans +4.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals pick

It was nice to see Joe Burrow look healthy again under center, but let’s not lose our minds over the Cincinnati Bengals’ beatdown of the Cardinals in Week 5.

Cincy slaughtered one of the worst defenses in the land for a 34-20 win, but the Bengals defense gave up 20 or more points for the fourth time in five games — despite holding on to the football for more than 38 minutes.

Cincinnati sits 23rd in Defensive DVOA and 19th in opponent success rate, which hinges on the Bengals’ inability to slow down the run. Rival rushers are picking up 5.3 yards per carry versus Cincy’s stop unit — third most in the land.

The Seattle Seahawks offense is potent through the air and the ground, but the rushing game has anchored this attack to start 2023. Seattle sits No. 2 in EPA per handoff and will bring fresh legs to Ohio for Week 6.

The Seahawks are coming off a bye, giving the offensive line time to rest up and putting plenty of gas in the tank for running back Kenneth Walker III. He’s rolled the last two outings, with 176 yards on 35 total carries — an average of more than five yards per run.

The forecast for Cincinnati is calling for rain and wind, which could shorten the passing plays and give Seattle a decisive edge on the ground considering the Bengals boast one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL.

PICK: Seattle Seahawks +3 (-110 at FanDuel)

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) pick

The Dallas Cowboys took a legendary ass-kicking from the 49ers on Sunday night. It was the kind of beating that leaves a mark, like a “Five Star” from your big brother. 

But rather than put that embarrassment behind it, Dallas continues to kick the Hornets’ nest with an ongoing war of trash talk with the Niners. 

I think I smell a letdown spot. 

In fact, this Monday matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers is packed full of situational sneakiness working against the Cowboys in Week 6. 

Dallas not only comes off an emotional thumping in primetime but plays back-to-back road games and its third travel spot in four weeks when it visits the Chargers in SoFi Stadium. A much-needed bye week awaits the Boys in Week 7.

Los Angeles is fresh off a Week 5 bye, which came at just the right time. 

The Bolts were struggling with injuries on both sides of the ball and needed a hard reset after a 2-2 start to 2023. Now former Cowboys offensive coordinator and current L.A. OC Kellen Moore has had two weeks to pick apart his old team.

Situational edges aside, Justin Herbert is the best quarterback this Dallas defense has faced all season, and we saw what happened to the Cowboys stop unit against a legit attack last weekend. 

American’s Team had feasted on feeble offenses before Week 5, taking down the likes of Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones (and losing to Josh Dobbs) before hitting the Brock Purdy buzzsaw by the Bay.

Dallas also limps into Week 6 with key defenders missing. The secondary showed a massive hole with Trevon Diggs lost for the season and the run stop took a huge hit with linebacker Leighton Vander Esch now expected to miss time. 

The Cowboys were already allowing the second-highest success rate to rushers (49.2%) and 4.5 yards per carry with the “Wolf Hunter” in the lineup. But now this linebacker corps is desperate to find capable bodies, having just signed free agent LB Rashaan Evans as they get ready for a Chargers offense that ranks No. 5 in EPA per play.

Los Angeles’ week off allows Bolts star RB Austin Ekeler to heal up after missing three games with an ankle sprain suffered in Week 1. Ekeler is one of the most dangerous dual-threat weapons in the league and amassed 117 yards rushing against the Dolphins in the opener.

The look-ahead line set back in the summer had L.A. at -2 but the market is discounting the Chargers far too much. I’d love to get Bolts +3, but this spread is only going lower as we approach Monday night. 

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

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