Tis the season for scary movies with Halloween happening on Monday. And under all that slashing and screaming and gore that populates the film genre, aren’t horror movies just underdog stories at their core?
We have lone survivors like “Final Girls” Laurie Strode and Ellen Ripley, who overcome the odds to whoop the big baddy and win the day. You also have guys like Chris Washington in “Get Out” and Ash Williams in “The Evil Dead” going to great lengths to come out on top, like chopping off their own hand and braining someone with a bocce ball.
And, even considering the evil antagonists in horror flicks, you often have a one-man wrecking crew like Jason Voorhees and Michael Myers, who are massively outnumbered, seem to be done for, yet always bounce back for the sequel. That’s true underdog grit if I’ve ever seen it.
I can only hope my NFL betting picks and predictions for Week 8 show the same fighting spirit as those horror film figures. Here are my favorite NFL underdog bets this weekend.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 8
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Arizona Cardinals (+4) at Minnesota Vikings pick
This game saw one of the most instant line moves of Week 8 when odds hit the board on Sunday night.
Minnesota, coming off a bye and riding a four-game winning streak, opened as a 5.5-point home favorite and instantly shrunk as low as -3.5 with early play coming in on Arizona as the underdog. That adjustment warrants a closer look at the Vikings’ recent success.
Minnesota is just 1-3 against the spread during this hot streak and has only won those games by a combined 22 points. The Vikings have also been outgained in yardage in two of those four contests, with foes owning an average edge of over 105 yards per game in that span.
Those victories have come against some broken teams with poor defenses and less-than-stellar quarterbacks at the wheel, knocking off Detroit (Jared Goff), New Orleans (Andy Dalton), Chicago (Justin Fields), and Miami (Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater).
The Vikings were on a bye in Week 7, putting those ugly wins out of mind with many bettors. But digging into those matchups we find an overrated group that doesn’t really do anything well: ranked 18th in Team DVOA at Football Outsiders and unworthy of a spread like this considering recent opposition.
The Cardinals are not without their faults. However, this roster has had a mini bye to get healthy and the return of WR1 Deandre Hopkins last week had an instant impact on the success of QB Kyler Murray, who’s the best passer the Vikes have faced since Week 2.
Arizona’s defense was a glaring weakness to start the season, but this unit ranks No. 8 in EPA allowed per play since Week 3. The Cardinals are an extremely disruptive defense, owning the second-highest blitz rate in the league and generating 10 total takeaways — including two INTs for touchdowns in the win over New Orleans last Thursday.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has faced the eighth-highest pressure rate per dropback in the NFL, and his PFF rankings show significant struggles when harassed. Cousins completes just 38.5% of throws under pressure and 53.3% when blitzed, amassing only 4.5 yards per attempt when facing extra pass rushers.
While I would have loved to grab the Cardinals at that opening number of +5.5, there are a couple shops still holding on to Arizona +4 as of this writing.
PICK: Cardinals +4 (-107 at PointsBet)
New York Giants (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks pick
I backed the Giants last week as road dogs in Jacksonville, despite the market moving away from New York and expecting regression after the team’s hot start.
The same trend is showing up in Week 8, with the G-Men opening as 2.5-point underdogs in Seattle and the early money moving this spread as high as Seahawks -3.5.
New York has quietly been one of the most efficient attacks in the league, sitting No. 7 in EPA per play entering Week 8, and doing so against some respectable defensive foes. The Seahawks are far from that, sinking down to the depths of the defensive doldrums, ranked out 25th in EPA allowed per play, and barfing up almost 27 points per contest.
Seattle has been able to counter its stop unit’s shortcomings with an explosive offense that just got a little less “caffeinated” with WR1 DK Metcalf going down with a knee injury. Seattle could have success running the ball against a Giants defense sitting 26th in EPA per handoff allowed. That said, the G-Men have taken on a number of run-centric foes to start the season and here they sit at 6-1 straight up.
The Seahawks' attack may not get enough time with the football to exploit that weakness anyways, considering New York can set its methodical pace with its own strong rushing game and dominate time of possession — owning the fifth-highest average TOP in the land. The Giants sit ninth in first downs per game and go against a Seattle team allowing the fourth-highest number of first downs to opponents.
New York continues to keep games close, which is why I’m searching out the half-point hook on this field goal spread. And with the forecast calling for classic Seattle weather — rain and wind — this could be a messy grinder of a game, which fits the format for Brian Daboll’s team.
PICK: Giants +3.5 (-125 at Betway)
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5) pick
The Saints are a tough team to tackle in terms of their power ratings.
New Orleans has only two wins on the year but looked to be improving with a victory against Seattle in Week 5 and a close one vs. a very good Cincinnati team in Week 6. Then we got a mess of a game last Thursday against Arizona, which has once again muddied the waters.
The Saints do enjoy a mini bye after their weirdo loss to Arizona, in which NOLA limited the Cardinals to just 5.4 yards per play. But plenty of penalties and three turnovers — two of which went the other way for touchdowns — stunted any momentum built over the previous two outings.
That extra break, however, has opened the window for many important pieces of this team to return to action on both sides of the ball and allowed New Orleans a much-needed breather after a busy opening slate. Hell, given how banged up this depth chart has been in 2022, just a few bodies back in the mix will make a big difference.
Offensively, New Orleans has overachieved given the talent missing most weeks. Over the past four games, the Saints have amassed scores of 34, 26, 39, and 25 while ranking out No. 8 in EPA per play — not bad for a ragtag bunch of receivers, over-the-hill Andy Dalton, and the always-dangerous Taysom Hill.
Defensively, New Orleans hasn’t been as good. In fact, it’s been bad. But looking at the Raiders’ current success, the key to tripping up the Silver and Black is to bottle up RB Josh Jacobs, who has anchored the Vegas attack with 441 total yards on the ground in the past three games.
Despite their recent dip, Dennis Allen’s defense knows a little something about stuffing the run. This has long been the premier run-stop unit in the land and New Orleans still ranks out No. 7 in EPA allowed per handoff on the year. The Saints have also had extra prep time to scheme for slowing down the Raiders’ rushing attack.
Las Vegas also has just two wins on the season, one coming against the bad-news Broncos in Week 4 and the other against Houston at home last weekend. On top of that, this defense has surrendered plenty of points to some pop-gun attacks, owning the 27th-rated DVOA and an EPA per play allowed metric that sits seventh highest in the league.
Vegas-based books are padding against the hometown action, with the Raiders as high as -2.5. However, outside of Sin City, we have to settle for Saints +1.5. Given NOLA's upcoming injury reports, any positive returns for the team could see this spread jump the fence by kickoff.
PICK: Saints +1.5 (-107 at PointsBet)
Last week: 1-2 ATS -1.17 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 9-12 ATS -4.09 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
