NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Panthers Pick Up Pace Against Colts

Halloween is a very different holiday depending on if you’re a kid or a parent.

The actual process of Trick-or-Treating is the best — for kids and parents alike — but that sugar-fueled Mack Truck diverges on separate roads come November 1.

Kids want to dive into their candy pile like T.J. Watt on a strip-sack while many parents try to temper those temptations by capping the candy consumption, like keeping a running back on a snap count.

I found out a long time ago that this particular process is a war you just can’t win. Instead, I let the little ones have at it.

Wanna eat six chocolate bars before breakfast? Go for it. Going back for a ninth bag of Doritos? Get’em into you. Should you be eating Fun Dip on the toilet? Eh, you do you.

The quicker it goes in, the sooner it goes out. Why stretch being a candy cop until the Xmas decorations go up? Rip the Band-Aid off now.

If my calculations are correct, my kids should have 99% of their Halloween loot gone by Sunday, leaving the less-desirable treats in the final 1% to float around the house until ultimately being trashed sometime around Valentine’s Day.

In the Trick-or-Treat world of NFL picks, the underdogs are often those unwanted leftovers.

Bettors flock to the favorites, gorging on their sweet, sweet NFL odds while passing on those teams getting the points. Sure, dogs may not have the most appetizing appeal but when push comes to shove, they can be that needed shot of sugar right to the bankroll.

With this in mind, here are my Week 9 NFL underdog picks and predictions… if they were leftover Halloween candy. Enjoy.

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 14-10 ATS

NFL Week 9 picks and predictions

• Dolphins (+2.5)
• Buccaneers (+3)
• Panthers (+3)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs pick

The Miami Dolphins are… candy corn.

Oh, candy corn looks fun. All the bright colors really catch the eye.

Put it up against some of the worst Halloween confections out there, and it’s pretty good. In moderation. Candy corn will kick the piss out of a lemon sucker or even take down a bag of those off-brand gummies with the weird texture.

But put candy corn up against something like a chocolate bar, and it gets chewed up and spit out without a second thought. Unless the chocolate bar has something wrong with it.

The Kansas City Chiefs are said chocolate bar, and they’re covered in that gross white chalky stuff.

The Chiefs aren’t quite right. The offense has all the consistency of a small child telling a story, getting derailed at almost every stop. They’ve scored 23 points or less in five of eight games this season—– something they did only four times in all of 2022 (including the playoffs).

The defense was the one thing keeping things together for Kansas City, but this unit could be down two of its key cogs at linebacker with Nick Bolton on IR and Willie Gay Jr. questionable with a tailbone injury.

Enter candy corn… I mean Miami.

The Dolphins offense is a sugar rush of game-breaking talent, ranked No. 1 in EPA per play and Offensive DVOA, headlined by none other than former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. Miami carries the stigma of not being able to step up against top-tier opposition, but the Chiefs are wounded and playing on a neutral field in Frankfurt.

For what it’s worth, Miami has been in Germany since early in the week (the Chiefs won’t show up until Thursday night). It’s been adapting to the time change, running through normal practices, and getting healthy.

The Fins could have a bunch of bodies back, including top OL Terron Armstead, C Connor Williams, CB Xavien Howard, and FS Jevon Holland among others. Those guys traveled with the team to Germany, so that leans toward the positive.

This line was Miami +2.5 across the industry as of Wednesday morning, but it’s dropping to +1.5 at some shops. I’ll grab all I can with the "Außenseiter" in Deutschland on Sunday morning.

PICK: Miami Dolphins +2.5 (-117 at Pinnacle)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Houston Texans picks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are… Halloween Kisses.

Maybe this is a Canadian thing (like Rockets vs. Smarties vs. Smarties) that won’t resonate with readers south of the border, so please indulge me.

A staple of my childhood Halloween hauls were these little caramel/molasses candies wrapped in festive orange and yellow wax paper.

They still make them, and a few found their way into my kids’ sacks on Tuesday night. They’re likely going to stay there, because… you know. Molasses.

But the reasons why Halloween Kisses finish at the bottom of the Trick-or-Treat pecking order are the same reasons why the Bucs are a good underdog bet visiting Houston in Week 9.

Much like Tampa Bay, Halloween Kisses stick around. I don’t mean in the sense that they don’t get eaten (which they don’t), they cling to your teeth like an O-line man grabbing two handfuls of Micah Parsons’ jersey.

The Buccaneers did just that last Thursday against Buffalo, sticking around long enough to score eight points late in the fourth quarter to cover as 10-point dogs in Orchard Park. On the season, Tampa has an average margin of victory of -1 and is 3-4 SU but 4-3 ATS.

A big part of that ability to stay close is the Bucs defense, which is as hard and jagged as a two-month-old Halloween Kiss (their inevitable fate). If you can get the wrapper off these petrified pieces of tar, you’d better have the dentist on speed dial before biting down.

Tampa Bay doesn’t budge for much, allowing just 18 points per game and holding high-powered attacks like the Bills, Lions, and Eagles under their team totals. The Buccos are 13th in Defensive DVOA, boast the fifth-lowest points per play (0.282), and own the best red-zone defense in the land (27% TD).

That’s a lot for the Texans to take on, especially with a pop-gun attack that has managed to top 20 points only twice this season. Houston is somehow laying a field goal after losing as a 3-point favorite at Carolina last weekend.

The one sticky thing about this bet on the Bucs is Baker Mayfield. He’s playing through a banged-up knee but has had a mini bye to rest up for Week 9 (as have starting DLs Vita Vea and Logan Hall).

Mayfield and this struggling Bucs offense go down about as rough as Tampa’s associated Halloween treat. However, they've faced some very stingy stop units along the way: Buffalo, Atlanta, Detroit, New Orleans, and Philadelphia.

Houston’s not in the same class as those defenses and is the perfect matchup for the oft-rattled Mayfield, with a passive pass rush not generating pressure and collecting only 15 total sacks — tied for second fewest.

Get ready to chew on this Bucs bet for a full 60 minutes this Sunday. It might take that long to swallow.

PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-115 at FanDuel)

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (+3) pick

The Carolina Panthers are… plain chips.

I appreciate any neighbor who takes the time and money to participate in Halloween. But giving out plain potato chips tells you a lot about a person.

It’s an uninspired choice that falls to the bottom of the bag, surpassed by Doritos, Cheetos, and of course, the Canadian delicacy of Ketchup chips.

Plain chips are a little drab on their own, just like the Panthers’ playbook under head coach Frank Reich. However, add a little zesty dip to the mix and these flavorless spud flakes become the ideal vehicle for something better.

Panthers offensive coordinator Thomas Brown is a Costco tub of tangy onion dip. Yum.

He took over play-calling last week and while Carolina put up only 15 points, the offense was much more palatable. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young enjoyed his best day as a pro, watching his completions, yards per attempt, and passer rating spike in the win over Houston.

Carolina is also getting healthier by the week after being decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball in the opening weeks of the schedule. The offensive line got much-needed bodies back after the Week 7 bye, RB Miles Sanders is another week healthier off a shoulder injury, and SS Vonn Bell was back at practice.

If the Panthers are plain potato chips, then the Colts are those “One Chip Challenge” bags of evil you need to sign a waiver for before eating.

Indianapolis is fiery and unpredictable with backup Gardner Minshew making throws, and its defense has recently resembled the aftermath of eating those extremely spicy chips: a shitty mess.

The Colts have seen their defensive EPA metric balloon from 11th in the first four games to 28th over the past four outings, giving up a collective 130 points in those outings, and have gotten beaten up by some bland offenses in New Orleans and Cleveland.

On top of that, Indy has a potential look-ahead spot in play, peering past the plain-Jane Panthers and to an overseas affair in Germany next week. FYI: teams playing in Europe are 5-13-1 ATS the week before traveling since 2021.

So don’t poo-poo the Carolina plain chips. They’re not going to leave you crying on the toilet like the Colts.

PICK: Carolina Panthers +3 (-121 at BetRivers)

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