After a season dominated by betting favorites, can Wild Card Weekend remain a stage for live NFL underdogs?
The opening round of the NFL playoffs has proved profitable for anyone taking the points, as Wild Card underdogs have a 24-12 against the spread record over the past seven postseasons (67%).
However, point-spread pups limp into the tournament in 2024-25.
After a strong start to the schedule (underdogs covering at 55.6% through the first four weeks), the betting chalk made good on the oddsmakers’ expectations and came through at a near 57% clip since Week 5, including a 39-22-1 ATS record (63.7%) in the final four weeks of the season.
Given that, it’s a miracle I escaped with a 25-25-1 ATS count for my NFL Underdogs column bets (a losing mark when you factor in the vig).
The NFL playoffs are normally a good place to find value on the dogs, primarily because we’re talking about the best teams in football — not contemplating if crappy Carolina is 14 points worse than that week’s opponent.
Looking back, NFL underdogs have had only one sub .500 ATS record in the postseason in the past seven years and are a collective 51-33 ATS (60.7%) since 2017, including a 31-21 ATS count since the field expanded to 14 teams.
For the sake of this column and all those who love to cheer for the underdog, let’s hope the playoffs continue to give the point-spread pups a little extra pop.
Here are my best NFL picks and predictions for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +10
(-115 at bet365)
The Pittsburgh Steelers back into the postseason on a four-game slide, and the last time they faced the rival Baltimore Ravens, they got force-fed a 34-17 beating at Baltimore in Week 16.
I get why Pittsburgh would get a ton of points in this AFC Wild Card clash, but +10 is my breaking point. It’s a spread I’ve been waiting on with this line opening at the “no man’s land” of +8.5 — quickly pushing through dead numbers en route to the key spot of +10.
The Steelers didn’t get a fair shake in Week 16, facing Baltimore in one of the worst stretches of schedule for any team this season.
Pittsburgh was playing in its second straight road game on a short week (it was a Saturday) after the defense logged almost 40 minutes of work against Philadelphia in the prior contest. To give the Steelers credit, they kept it closer than the final score would indicate with Baltimore needing a defensive TD to put up 34 points.
Betting on the Steelers this Saturday is putting your faith in Mike Tomlin’s defense and hoping the offense can avoid shooting itself in the foot.
Pittsburgh's stop unit watched its superior metrics slip in that challenging home stretch. But after finally getting a breather before Week 18, the Steelers put the clamps on Cincinnati’s sensational attack and checked the Bengals to only 19 points in last week’s loss.
Tomlin has had success against Lamar Jackson (his lowest career passer rating against any team). However, the Ravens' star quarterback had quieter days against Pittsburgh this year, and Baltimore punished its opponent with Derrick Henry instead.
I’m OK with a ground-centric playbook from the Ravens because it means shorter gains, longer drives, and plenty of time coming off the clock — leaving a smaller window to cover this monster spread.
Double-digit postseason pups are far from a guarantee, but I do give Tomlin the benefit of the doubt as an underdog.
Not only is he the best coach at covering when catching points, but he’s also a 72% ATS winner as a division dog since 2007, including a 13-3-2 ATS record as an underdog against the Ravens.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
My pick: Washington Commanders +3
(+100 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Run for the hills! A rookie is making his first postseason start!
First-year passers have historically been poison in their playoff debuts, but if we’ve learned anything from Jayden Daniels’ 2024 campaign, it’s the Washington Commanders QB is not your ordinary rookie.
In fact, Daniels is the best quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced in about a month.
Tampa Bay’s defense was soft against the pass all year but has been let off the hook in the second half of the schedule. That slate was littered with limp-armed QBs that failed to challenge a Bucs secondary rated 27th in opponent success rate per dropback.
Daniels is playing well beyond his years and gets a very favorable matchup against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round.
On top of injuries to three starters in the Tampa secondary, the Buccos have been burned by big plays, allowing the seventh most completions for 20 yards or more. Todd Bowles will bring the blitz, as he always does, in an attempt to rattle the rookie and back that pressure up with zone coverage.
That suits Daniels just fine. His mobility and pocket presence have him rated among the top half of QBs against the blitz at PFF, and he’s absolutely chewed through zone schemes, ranking among the best passers vs. those concepts. The Commies' hurry-up style will also put the Bucs on their heels and not allow Bowles to switch between his various looks and blitz packages.
If there’s a game on this week’s board that could live up to the “wild” in Wild Card Weekend, this is the one. The tall total and two explosive offenses paint the picture of a potential shootout, and where there’s chaos, there’s value in the underdog.
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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
My pick: L.A. Rams +1.5
(-105 at FanDuel)
Before the Minnesota Vikings got shit stomped by the Lions on Sunday Night Football, the look-ahead lines had Minnesota as a 3-point favorite at Los Angeles in the Wild Card Round.
That 31-9 loss in their biggest game of the year, along with Kevin O’Connell’s inability to adjust, has the betting markets wavering when it comes to the validity of the Vikes. That doubt has knocked this spread from an opener of Minnesota -2.5 to -1.5.
Monday’s trip to SoFi Stadium is a bad spot for a reeling Vikings side. Not only is Minnesota playing back-to-back road games and its third away trip in four weeks but O’Connell has to match wits with his master.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay got the best of his former assistant back in Week 8, with L.A. pulling the curtain back on a then 5-1 Vikings squad. Los Angeles rolled Minnesota 30-20 as a 2.5-point home underdog, dominating possession and going 3-for-3 inside the red zone.
Those crucial possessions inside the opponents’ 20-yard line will once again define this game. Red-zone woes burned the Vikings in Week 18, with the offense going 0-for-4 against Detroit’s depleted defense, and getting the ball over the goal line in RZ spots has been a weakness of Minnesota for most of the year — exacerbated when playing away from home.
Los Angeles' defense doesn’t do a lot well, but slamming the door in the red zone is one strong point. The Rams have been among the stingier defenses inside their 20-yard line all year (50% TD rate allowed), and McVay will have plenty of info on O’Connell’s tendencies to share with his stop unit.
The Vikings can’t afford to let Los Angeles hang around because the Rams find another gear in fourth quarters on both sides of the ball.
Their offensive EPA per play jumps to No. 9 in the final frame, and the defensive side of that metric spikes to No. 14 in the 4Q — a significant stride compared to L.A.'s rating of 27th in the opening 45 minutes.
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