The Pittsburgh Steelers were one of my go-to NFL bets toward the end of last season.
By November, the team had overcome injuries on both sides of the ball, with all-world linebacker T.J. Watt returning to the lineup and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett playing beyond his years after concussion scares earlier in the schedule.
The Steelers wrapped 2022 a 6-1 run against the spread and kept Mike Tomlin’s first losing season at bay for another year (9-8 SU). Can they pick up where they left off?
The NFL odds for 2023 think so. Pittsburgh’s win total bounces between 8.5 and 9 in the NFL futures, and the lookahead lines concur with the Steelers laying the points in nine games. However, nine wins isn’t going to be enough to get to the playoffs, and sure as hell won’t be enough to win an ultra-competitive AFC North.
I put the “Terrible Towels” through the ringer and see what comes out in the wash with my 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers NFL betting preview.
Pittsburgh Steelers futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +5,000 | +4,500 | +6,000 |
| Win conference | +2,500 | +2,500 | +3,500 |
| Win division | +450 | +470 | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +135 | +146 | +140 |
| O8.5 wins | -140 | -150 | -120* |
| U8.5 wins | +120 | +120 | +100* |
*Win total is 9.0 at Caesars
Best futures bet: Miss Playoffs (-160)
Injuries had a lot to do with the Steelers’ fortunes in 2022, especially losing linebacker T.J. Watt in Week 1. And when Watt returned, the Pittsburgh defense got an instant shot in the arm. But what gets lost in that late-season turnaround is the quality of competition.
Pittsburgh scored wins against pop-gun offenses led by QBs such as Andy Dalton, zombie Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, depressing Derek Carr, Tyler Huntley (also lost to the Ravens in this stretch) and a rusty Deshaun Watson.
The Steelers’ offense also benefitted from a ton of turnovers generated against those sloppy scoring attacks, with Pittsburgh picking off those poor passers a total of 10 times in those seven games (along with three fumbles). That gave the Steelers extra possessions with great field position, and the offense still struggled to eclipse 20 points most weeks.
Pittsburgh’s path to the postseason isn’t as clear as just keeping those star players healthy in 2023.
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Pittsburgh Steelers betting overview
What will win bets: Takeaways
Game-changing plays are massive for football bettors, with things like sacks, fumbles and interceptions drastically shifting the trajectory of the contest. These critical swings have been the Steelers’ bread-and-butter for a while now but are a tough stat to replicate year after year.
Watt’s pass pressure is the fuel on the fire, with offenses having to account for him on every snap. His ability to drum up pressure on the QB feeds into a ball-hawking secondary that recorded an AFC-high 20 interceptions in 2022. But as mentioned, half of those came against a broke-ass lineup of passers in the final nine games of the schedule.
The Steelers stop unit was middle of the road in many other key categories in 2022, like third down defense and red zone results. But as long as Mike Tomlin’s guys continue to cause chaos and create takeaways, they’ll give bettors a fighting chance in any game.
What will lose bets: Offense
The Steelers have some solid young talents to tentpole this scoring attack with Kenny Pickett giving critics a teeny-tiny middle finger down the stretch, RB Najee Harris getting healthy in the second half of the slate, and WR George Pickens headlining highlight reels.
Pittsburgh ranked Top 4 in EPA per play and No. 7 in DVOA from Week 10 onward, but still only scored a total of 18 touchdowns in those nine games. With the help of a resurgent defense, that was enough to overcome some cupcake opponents and cover the spread against a betting market that was still pricing Pittsburgh as the team that went 2-6 SU (3-4-1 ATS) to start the year.
The Steelers entered 2022 as a point spread favorite in only four games, so it didn’t take much of an improvement to surpass that low bar. This year, Pittsburgh is a fave in nine games, and this flat Matt Canada offense (which wants to anchor in the ground game) may not have the pop to push the margin past oddsmakers’ expectations.
Pickett has turnover trouble, which could compound into a sophomore slump, since teams have more tape on him. His concussion woes are always worrisome considering he had two last year, and the league is quick to yank players showing the slightest hint of hindrance after a hit to the head.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  San Francisco 49ers |
+3 |
| 2 | vs  Cleveland Browns |
-1 |
| 3 | @  Las Vegas Raiders |
-1.5 |
| 4 | @  Houston Texans |
-3.5 |
| 5 | vs  Baltimore Ravens |
+1 |
| 6 | BYE | |
| 7 | @  Los Angeles Rams |
-2 |
| 8 | vs  Jacksonville Jaguars |
-1 |
| 9 | vs  Tennessee Titans |
-4 |
| 10 | vs  Green Bay Packers |
-3 |
| 11 | @ Cleveland Browns |
+1.5 |
| 12 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+4.5 |
| 13 | vs  Arizona Cardinals |
-6.5 |
| 14 | vs  New England Patriots |
-2 |
| 15 | @  Indianapolis Colts |
-2.5 |
| 16 | vs Cincinnati Bengals |
+2.5 |
| 17 | @  Seattle Seahawks |
+2.5 |
| 18 | @ Baltimore Ravens |
+3.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
As mentioned, the bar is raised for the Steelers in 2023, with a season win total flirting with nine victories and the early-bird spreads pegging Pittsburgh as the chalk in nine outings. In the other eight games as underdogs, the Steelers are getting less than a field goal in four of those contests.
In fact, a dozen of Pittsburgh’s lookahead lines are at least field goal spreads (fave or dog), which speaks to the quality of the defense being able to keep the Steelers in close games. During Mike Tomlin’s tenure, the Steelers are 55-38-5 ATS in games with spreads between -3 and +3, including 26-12-3 ATS as underdogs of a field goal or shorter (67%). They went 3-0-1 ATS as dogs of +3 or shorter last season.
Tomlin’s troop also went 7-5 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in one-possession games in 2022 (eight points or less) and had seven of those close contests come down to three points or less (5-1-1 ATS).
The 2023 NFL odds are projecting more nail-biters out of the gate, with Pittsburgh a 3-point underdog at home to San Francisco in Week 1 (more on this in “Trend To Know” below), a 1-point fave hosting Cleveland in Week 2, and a 1-point road chalk in Vegas in Week 3.
My NFL power ratings have the Steelers sitting 15th overall (52.94/100), and my Week 1 spread projection comes out to Pittsburgh +4.
The schedule makers took pity on Pittsburgh this year, with no notable schedule squeezes beyond back-to-back road games in Week 4, Week 12, and Week 18. However, that season finale is the team’s third road stop in four weeks to finish up with a cross-country trip to Seattle in Week 17 before heading back to Baltimore.
Pittsburgh Steelers schedule spot bet
Week 13: vs. Cardinals
While the schedule might not challenge Pittsburgh like some of its AFC North rivals, the calendar is not void of any sticky spots.
A letdown/lookahead sandwich spot awaits in Week 13. The Steelers are coming off back-to-back AFC North road stops with Cleveland and Cincinnati, and then welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Acrisure Stadium (still sounds funny) in Week 13.
Early odds have Pittsburgh laying a touchdown (its biggest spread of the season), which is number that will likely balloon given how crap the Cardinals are expected to be and the chilly December climate in the Steel City. My early NFL power ratings have this Week 13 matchup projected at Pittsburgh -13.
The Steelers run the risk of looking past Arizona and this pile of points to a short turnaround in Week 14, when they welcome the New England Patriots in what could be a key game for both clubs in the AFC postseason hunt.
Star power: Kenny Pickett props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +5,000 | +4,000 | +6,000 |
| OPOY | +10,000 | +15,000 | +10,000 |
| Pass yards leader | +6,000 | +6,000 | +6,000 |
| Pass TD leader | +8,000 | +6,000 | OTB |
| O17.5 pass TD | +100* | -126 | -125 |
| U17.5 pass TD | -120* | -102 | -105 |
| Pass yards total | 3,300.5 | 3,275.5 | 3,350.5 |
*Pass TD total is 18.5 at DraftKings
Best prop: Over 11.5 Interceptions (-110)
Pickett had pick problems in 2022 with nine interceptions to just seven passing touchdowns.
His player projections for the upcoming season paint a positive picture in terms of uptick in scoring, with some models calling for 20-plus TDs. However, his interception numbers aren’t too far behind.
Some projections are as high as 16 INTs with all calling for a dozen or more wayward throws, with an average around 14 interceptions. Even with Canada’s offense anchored in the run, thanks to Mike Tomlin’s philosophies, Pickett should see his dropbacks increase in his sophomore season.
Bettors taking the Over 11.5 interceptions from Pickett could get a nice start to this season-long prop with Pittsburgh hosting San Francisco in Week 1 – the defense that tied with the Steelers for the most interceptions (20) last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
A simple alliteration can describe this offense: Close, competitive, and conservative.
The Steelers are going to run the ball (again) this season, especially after fortifying the left side of the O-line. There isn’t a lot of depth at receiver and despite Mike Tomlin winning at least eight games in 16 straight seasons, if this defense — which lost seven starters from last year — can’t keep things tight, Tomlin isn’t creative enough as a play-caller to win games facing large deficits, hence the HC wanting to keep games very close late.
This looks like a great underdog/Under team but books are pricing it as one with a 41-point total vs. the Niners in Week 1.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
Totals bettors should expect to see plenty of low numbers in Steelers games this season; their games in 2022 saw an average combined score of just 38.5 and there’s no reason not to expect a similar number this year.
Led by a few blue-chippers on defense, they could be one of the league’s best on that side of the ball — however (to the dismay of many Steelers fans), offensive coordinator Matt Canada will be back after some time on the hot seat. Despite having a capable group of skill players, Pittsburgh’s offense was one of the worst in the NFL last season and I expect that to be the case again in 2023.
Pittsburgh Steelers trend to know
As hinted at above, the Steelers find themselves as home underdogs against the Niners in Week 1 (+3).
According to the lookahead lines, Pittsburgh is also catching points in front of the Terrible Towels three more times in 2023, getting +2.5 from Baltimore (Week 5), +1 from Jacksonville (Week 8), and +3 from Cincinnati (Week 16).
During Mike Tomlin’s career in the Steel City, Pittsburgh has been a home underdog just 21 times during the regular season and is a remarkable 13-8 SU and 14-4-3 ATS (73.8%) in those situations. The Steelers were 1-1-1 ATS as a home pup last season (1-2 SU).
Pittsburgh Steelers Home Underdog Spreads
- Week 1 vs San Francisco (+3)
- Week 5 vs Baltimore (+2.5)
- Week 8 vs Jacksonville (+1)
- Week 16 vs Cincinnati (+3)
