After taking the year off last season, the NFL’s Pro Bowl is back in business and will take place this Sunday in the confines of Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium. Matt LaFleur’s NFC squad sits as 1.5-point underdogs versus Mike Vrabel’s AFC side with a total of 62.5. But will the absences of some of the NFC’s best be enough to jump on the favorite?
Check out our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Pro Bowl on February 6.
Pro Bowl odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This game opened as a pick 'em but has since moved to AFC -1.5 (-115). The total has also ticked up a full point to 62.5 after opening at 61.5. The AFC has won four straight Pro Bowls.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Pro Bowl predictions
Predictions made on 2/04/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Pro Bowl game info
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Sunday, February 6, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC
Pro Bowl betting preview
Weather
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Betting trend to know
The AFC has won each of the last four Pro Bowls since changing the format in 2016.
Pro Bowl picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The AFC has won every Pro Bowl since 2016, which was the first year they changed from Team (insert retired player’s name) versus Team (insert other retired player’s name). Since 2016, three of the four games were decided by seven points or less and last year’s 38-33 AFC victory was the first time since 2012 that both teams scored at least 30 points.
The NFC is already at a disadvantage as it will be without its best quarterbacks and receivers in Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp. In what should be a pass-happy match (the last Pro Bowl saw just 24 rushes compared to 87 passes), those losses are massive.
It’s tough not to lean on the team that has dominated this “game” for the past four matches with an AFC squad that features Patrick Mahomes as well as Justin Herbert. They also have the advantage at running back with Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb vs. Dalvin Cook and James Conner.
The NFC might have the advantage at receiver with Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel as opposed to Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen but the combination of Mahomes passing to Hill and Travis Kelce certainly pushes the needle for us. Herbert will also have his own receiver in Allen as well. In a game where familiarity with your weapons might be the biggest advantage, the AFC certainly has the edge.
Defensively, there is no question who has the better squad. The AFC will feature QB killers Maxx Crosby, Myles Garrett, TJ Watt and Joey Bosa. The AFC produced three sacks in the most recent Pro Bowl and it didn’t feature the pass-rush ability that these four have. The NFC will be missing its three best tackles as Trent Williams, Tristan Wirfs and Tyron Smith have all chosen to sit this one out. Quarterbacks Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson could be in trouble Sunday.
Even getting real picky and looking at special teams, we have to give it to the AFC with Justin Tucker and punter A.J. Cole — both of whom are arguably the best at their respective positions.
With the Bengals in the Super Bowl representing the AFC, it’s the NFC that will take the biggest hit with players like Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Kupp and to a lesser extent kicker Matt Gay missing this All-Star game. The absences of Brady, Rodgers, Adams and three offensive tackles are also an issue, and the familiarity factor with all three AFC QBs throwing to their teammates is a big advantage that should last the entirety of the game. AFC coach Mike Vrabel is also one of the best player-coaches in the league and should excel in this format.
The spread is starting to move as this opened as a pick ‘em but now sits at AFC -1.5 (-115). The AFC seems to have the advantage in nearly every position — we agree with the market here and will take this number all the way to -3.
Prediction: AFC -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The last Pro Bowl that was played two seasons ago was a pass-fest that featured the NFC running the ball just five times with Pete Caroll calling the plays. The game featured 71 total points, 11 red-zone trips, five interceptions, 834 total yards and 7.2 yards per play. These numbers might scream Over, but hitting 63 points is no easy task.
The first problem is the pace of play. With the unfamiliarity, the tempo should be slower, as we saw just 116 total plays run in the last Pro Bowl. The average of 58 plays run per team would rank 31st in the league. Obviously, the yards per play will be higher than the average NFL team, but with slower offenses, is this Over a layup even with the talent?
Since 1999, the two lowest-scoring Pro Bowls have all occurred over the last four runnings. The 71-point meeting in 2020 saw a fumble and an interception returned for a TD and the six total turnovers turned into some easy points. The three Pro Bowls that proceeded the 2020 game saw final totals of 33, 47 and 33 points respectively. 2019 saw just 102 total plays and 564 total yards, 2018 had 114 plays and 564 yards while in 2017, both teams ran 127 plays but gained just 4.7 yards per play.
This game also features a total of nine key offensive players who have been replaced including the NFC’s four best offensive players in Rodgers, Brady, Adams and Kupp. That’s three MVP candidates.
We also saw in the race between Tyreek Hill, Micah Parsons and Nick Chubb that the Kansas City receiver doesn't look 100 percent healthy and could be used sparingly, as he dealt with injuries heading into the playoffs.
Both teams’ defenses are also stacked, with the exceptions of Donald and Ramsey. The AFC pass rush could be the best-assembled on a football field ever, while both squads will be stacked at linebacker and in the secondary. It’s much easier to run a defense with unfamiliar teammates than it is to coordinate and offense with all new pieces.
This is more of a lean for us but with a slower pace of play, so much has to go right to hit this Over. With the missing offensive pieces on the NFC, we’re fading points Sunday and looking at the Under 62.5. This total might creep up even more as it opened at 61.5, so if you’re looking to hit the Under, closer to Sunday might be the best time.
Prediction: Under 62.5 (-110)
Best bet
No Brady, Rodgers, Adams or Kupp severely handcuffs this NFC offense in an All-Star game that usually features a ton of passing. The AFC has the advantage in nearly every offensive position while the ridiculous pass rush that the AFC features could be a problem for an NFC team that replaced its top three offensive tackles. We even have to give the edge to the AFC in special teams and coaching.
The market has caught onto the edge the AFC has and the line has begun to move. We’d take this up to -3 and even in a game with next to zero importance, the edge in skill that the AFC has should hopefully prevail.
Pick: AFC -15 (-115)
