The Cincinnati Bengals are still looking for their first win of the season at home, and they’ll have their chance as a sizable favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, November 3.
Cincy quarterback Joe Burrow has declared this is a must-win game, and my Raiders vs. Bengals predictions and NFL picks expect him to lead the way convincingly.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, with the game airing on FOX.
Spread
While the Las Vegas Raiders have covered in two straight as sizable underdogs, they’re going against a desperate Cincinnati Bengals team on Sunday. I love the alternative -6.5 spread or -7 number through BetMGM, and I don't expect the Raiders offense to keep pace with the Bengals in this “must-win game.”
Moneyline
While I would look to target an alternative spread (-2.5) to move the margin below multiple key numbers as opposed to paying the heftier moneyline vig, I anticipate Cincinnati prevailing outright.
Over/Under
The Under has cashed in each of the past three meetings between the Raiders and Bengals, and I’m skeptical of the Las Vegas offense being able to put points on the board. Meanwhile, Cincinnati could find itself milking the clock in the second half, so I'm leaning toward the Under 46.
My Raiders vs Bengals best bet
Bengals -6.5 (-128 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Bengals won three of four before bowing to the Eagles at home in Week 8, so this is a bounce-back spot and chance to earn their first home win of the season against the inferior Raiders.
Cincy sporting a 3-5 record is representative of the weaknesses on its roster, but Las Vegas has also dropped four straight and lags well behind in both offensive and defensive DVOA and PFF grades.
I’m confident Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and the offense can put enough points on the board to pull away from the Raiders and cover this reduced spread. He’s been solid at Paycor Stadium, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions across four home games.
Hitting the field from the opposite sideline, Las Vegas QB Gardner Minshew has thrown for a ho-hum 6.8 YPA with seven interceptions and two lost fumbles across four road contests. The Raiders also rank 26th in points per game (18.0), 27th in offensive DVOA, and last in EPA per play, so I’m not anticipating them keeping pace with the Bengals on Sunday.
And if Burrow's press conference on Wednesday was any indication, this is a pivotal game that could shape the rest of Cincinnati's season.
"(The urgency is) as high as it can be. This is a must-win game. We're 3-5. You go to 3-6, you basically have to win out. We've done it before. I know the players we have. You have to treat it week by week. Any game is winnable. You've just got to go and do it."
Burrow and the Bengals get the job done on Sunday.
Raiders vs Bengals same-game parlay
Bengals -6.5
Tre Tucker Over 28.5 receiving yards
Jakobi Meyers Over 50.5 receiving yards
Las Vegas wide receiver Tre Tucker paced Raiders wide receivers in offensive snaps last week, and I expect Las Vegas to be playing from behind in Week 9.
The Bengals haven’t been tough against the pass, either. Cincinnati ranks 25th in defensive DVOA while allowing the 11th-highest EPA per dropback and 12th-most passing yards per game. Additionally, the Bengals sport the 10th-lowest quarterback hurry percentage and rank 29th in pass rush grade per PFF.
While Tucker’s numbers don’t jump off the page, he garnered 11 targets the past two weeks while playing 93.1% of the Las Vegas offensive snaps.
Turning to Raiders wideout Jakobi Meyers, he’s the most talented receiver on the team and returned from a two-game absence last week to catch six of seven targets for 52 yards while playing 80% of the Raiders offensive snaps. There will be enough passing volume for both Raiders to eclipse the number on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raiders vs Bengals odds
Raiders vs Bengals live odds
Raiders vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +8.5 | Cincinnati -8.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +350 | Cincinnati -450
- Over/Under: Over 45 | Under 45
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Raiders vs Bengals betting trend to know
Las Vegas has only cashed the moneyline in seven of its last 21 games (-3.85 Units / -14% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Bengals.
Raiders vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Raiders vs Bengals latest injuries
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