It took 16 weeks, but the Las Vegas Raiders have been officially eliminated from the playoffs after starting the year off 6-3. The Silver and Black will travel to the altitudes of Denver to play for nothing against a 5-10 Broncos team that hasn’t been favored all year until this week.
NFL odds have the Broncos as a one-point home favorite in a game that could see that spread go either way as the week progresses. The total opened at 51, which was the exact total for these teams’ Nov 18 matchup, which Las Vegas won 37-12.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Raiders vs Broncos on Sunday, January 3 (4:25 p.m. ET).
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos Betting Preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the 50s at game time as Empower Field at Mile High will be a great spot for an AFC West rivalry game to close out the season. Light winds and partly cloudy skies are also forecasted. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Raiders: Denzelle Good G (Out), Nick Kwiatkoski LB (Out), Trent Brown T (Out), Maurice Hurst DT (Out).
Broncos: Bradley Chubb LB (Out), Phillip Lindsay RB (Out), Anthony Chickillo LB (Out), KJ Hamler WR (Out), Trey Marshall S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 10-1 in the last 11 head-to-head matchups. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Broncos.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Without much to play for, both teams will have to get up for an AFC West rivalry game to finish off their disappointing seasons.
Las Vegas comes into Sunday’s game on the heels of a near-impossible Week 16 loss that was triggered by more questionable play calling. The heartbreaking loss to the Dolphins will be a tough one to rebound from this week for the Raiders, hence the books favoring the Broncos for the first time this year.
But looking at recent results, Las Vegas has a big ATS advantage over the Broncos, as the Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six against Denver, which includes two trips to Colorado.
Luckily for a Las Vegas defense that has allowed 26 or more points in six straight games, it gets to face a QB, Drew Lock, who is 35th in QBR, 29th in yards per attempt and tied for first in interceptions.
The Broncos may have a Top-15 DVOA defense, but their offense is the worst in the league. Lock and WR Jerry “drops” Jeudy have struggled to gel this year as the offense's 5.1 yards per play ranks them in the bottom-six of the league.
Even if the Raiders sit QB Derek Carr (groin) and start Marcus Mariota, we still like the +1, as the Las Vegas receiving corps is healthy facing a banged-up Denver secondary. The running game also showed signs of life last week ahead of its matchup with Denver’s No. 27 rush defense. RB Josh Jacobs also has 976 rushing yards on the year, so he will likely get a chance to top 1,000 yards.
Denver made it close last week as every team does against the Chargers, but the Broncos aren’t pushing the needle for us and we aren’t willing to put our money behind Drew Lock and his poor decision-making.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas +1 (+108)
Over/Under Pick
Las Vegas enjoyed another Over last week, albeit a sweaty one, pushing its season total to a league-best 11-3-1 O/U. All the trends line up with the Raiders and the Over as they are 4-0 O/U in their last four, 7-1-1 O/U in their last nine as an underdog and 5-0 O/U in their last five vs the AFC. But this matchup has been anything but profitable for Over backers.
The last time the Broncos and Raiders hit an Over was Nov 6, 2016, a span of eight straight matchups hitting the Under. Say what you want about trends, but two divisional rivals and eight games of the Under is something to take notice of.
The Broncos have only seen a total in the 50s three times this year and are 1-2 O/U in those games. Backing the league’s worst offense to score 20-27 points is a lot to ask, as Denver has eclipsed 20 points just once in its last seven contests.
With some of the unpredictability of Week 17, we aren’t trusting either team to come out with their best performances and 52 points is a lot if teams start giving second-string players reps later in the game.
PREDICTION: Under 51 (-110)
First Half Moneyline Pick
The Broncos are 6-9 ATS in the first half this year and 2-5 ATS 1H at home. Those numbers are in sharp contrast to their overall ATS mark of 8-7. Denver has become a second-half team this year and has done most of their dirty work playing from behind.
At 10-5 ATS in the second half this year, Denver holds the league’s third-best second-half mark against the spread. Lock and the Broncos failed to score a single first-half point against a Chargers’ defense that was without DE Joey Bosa a week ago, as well.
With the Broncos’ offense in the dumps and averaging just 7.9 first-half points per game at home, we are taking the visiting team on the 1H moneyline (2-way) which is a push if tied after 30 minutes.
PREDICTION: First half Raiders ML (+113)
Raiders vs Broncos Betting Card
- Las Vegas +1 (+108)
- Under 51 (-110)
- First half Las Vegas Raiders ML (+113)
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