The Cleveland Browns enter Week 8 on the heels of last week’s dramatic win over the Bengals, but lost WR Odell Beckham Jr. for the rest of the season. The now 5-2 Browns host a Las Vegas Raiders team that has dropped three of four games after starting the
season 2-0.
The Browns opened at -3 but quickly came off the three to -2.5. The line is trending back towards the -3, however. The total has dropped two full points after opening at 55.5, possibly due to weather concerns.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Raiders vs Browns for Sunday, November 1 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Cleveland is calling for a 45 percent chance of showers (and possible snow in the second half) Sunday, but the biggest impact will be winds blowing west up to 50 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Raiders: Trent Brown T (Out), Richie Incognito G (Out), Damon Arnette CB (Out), Bryan Edwards WR (Out), Marcus Mariota QB (Out).
Browns: Odell Beckham Jr. WR (Out), Nick Chubb RB (Out), Wyatt Teller G (Out), Austin Hooper TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Cleveland’s last seven games as a favorite, while the Raiders are 4-0-1 O/U in their last five as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Browns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Raiders may have lost 45-20 last week on the road in Tampa Bay, but it was a four-point game early in the fourth quarter. The Raiders’ passing defense is a tough rollercoaster to put your money on, but this is a Raiders team that has straight-up wins against New Orleans, a decent Carolina team and Kansas City at Arrowhead. Coming off a game against the league’s best defense in Tampa, Las Vegas will have played the better opponents heading into the Week 8 matchup.
Cleveland has picked up two wins over the Bengals, in which they allowed Cincy to score 30 or more points in each match. They also grabbed wins against Washington, Dallas and Indianapolis. All four of those teams are a combined 9-17 SU on the season. On top of the injuries to Odell Beckham Jr. and Nick Chubb, the Browns are also dealing with injuries to their offensive line which is a big reason why they’ve struggled to run the ball of late after being the best running team in football earlier in the year.
We like the points in two evenly matched teams, but would prefer to wait to see if this line moves to LV +3.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under pick
Combined, the Browns and Raiders are 10-2-1 O/U on the year. Both teams own bottom-three pass defenses and no team has allowed more TDs than the Raiders over the last three weeks at 4.7 per game. Both teams are banged up on the offensive line and sit in the bottom-sixth of the league in yards per rush since Week 4, which means we could see more passing if neither team can get the run game going.
Losing OBJ may seem like a huge loss, but Cleveland is deep at receiver and Rashard Higgins, Jarvis Landry and Donovan Peoples-Jones are capable of carrying the load as well as the talented TE group the Browns have.
Raiders QB Derek Carr has been playing his best football ever and has tossed two or more TDs in five straight games, which is a big reason the Raiders have yet to lose an Over bet this year. Las Vegas is 2-0-1 on totals of 50 or higher this year.
We aren’t scared of the weather as things can change quickly in the middle of the week, but we may wait to see if public money starts bringing this total down as it did last week in Denver.
PREDICTION: Over 53.5 (-110)
Total Touchdowns Prop Pick
The Browns are averaging a combined 8.7 TDs in each of their games this year, and only once have they had a game that scored less than six TDs. Three of their seven games have seen a total of eight or more TDs this year as the 24th DVOA defense has done its share of giving up six points.
Raiders games have yet to see five or less combined TDs, as Las Vegas is averaging 7.2 combined TDs per game. Vegas and Cleveland have very similar teams in that both squads struggle to stop the pass but can gain yards through the air offensively when they want. It’s a bit juicy, but we like the Over 5.5 TDs a lot more than Over 6.5, especially if the weather is a factor.
PREDICTION: Total touchdowns scored Over 5.5 (-135)
Raiders vs Browns betting card
- Las Vegas +2.5 (-105)
- Over 53.5 (-110)
- Total touchdowns scored Over 5.5 (-135)
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