Raiders vs Chargers Week 1 Props: Track Meet Rematch in Los Angeles

The last regular season ended with a game for the ages between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, and in Week 1, we'll be treated to a rematch as the Raiders head to their old stomping ground.

Vegas sees a major boost to its pass-catching corps here, with Darren Waller back at full health and Davante Adams making his Raider debut, while L.A. carries the weight of expectation into a new season — a standing that has never gone wrong for the Bolts before.

Ahead of Week 1, we break down the prop market for Raiders vs. Chargers with our best NFL player prop picks.  

Raiders vs Chargers prop picks

• Ekeler Over 35.5 receiving yards
• Darren Waller Over 48.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Raiders vs Chargers Week 1 props

Satellite of love 

There’s pretty simple reasoning behind this pick, as it’s backing one of the NFL’s best running backs to do what he does best, in a great matchup.

Entering his fifth season as a key piece of the Chargers’ offense, Austin Ekeler remains the NFL’s best satellite back, capable of being shifted around the formation to find and exploit favorable matchups. That versatility has seen Ekeler total the most yards and touchdowns among running backs in the passing game since 2018 while sitting third in receptions and targets. 

Ekeler’s elusiveness after the catch is special, with a compact frame married with elite-level athleticism to create a brutal proposition for defenders in space. In 2021, Ekeler was fourth in the league in yards after the catch, with 628, trailing just Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Ja’Marr Chase — not bad company — and created more on a per-catch basis than Chase and Kupp. 

Basically, any defender in the NFL will have a hard time matching up with Ekeler, but the Raiders’ defense is particularly talent poor at the second level. Denzel Perryman and Jayon Brown are classic between-the-tackle bangers who cannot exist in space and will be left flat-footed when tasked with defending Ekeler 1-on-1. 

With just a modest 35.5-yard total posted for Ekeler Sunday in the receiving game, trust an elite back to do what he does best right out of the gate.

Austin Ekeler Prop: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)

Balls to the Waller

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Darren Waller’s “hamstring injury” cleared up as preseason came to a close — and it became clear a new contract wasn’t coming. Ultimately, all signs pointed to Waller being a hold-in as opposed to a genuine injury concern and that has played out, with the tight end not on the injury report.

Between the phony hamstring injury and the much-anticipated Raiders debut for Davante Adams, it appears we’re getting a lower number on Waller’s receiving yards total than we should be, at just 48.5.

That's a number that, since becoming a starter in 2019, Waller has topped in 65% of the 43 games (including two of the last three meetings with L.A.) he has played — averaging 69.9 yards per contest over the same stretch. During that time, Waller has been targeted 13th most across the league, despite missing seven games over the last two seasons. 

Now, of course, Adams' presence will eat into Waller's target share, but such a large drop would be a surprise — especially with the tight end back at full health after spending '21 hobbled.

Waller's also going to benefit from J.C. Jackson sitting out for the Chargers. L.A.'s big free-agency addition is a modern defensive back capable of matching up with receivers, tight ends, and backs, both on the outside and in the slot. With Jackson out, Derwin James will draw Waller more often but he simply does too much to shadow him on a snap-by-snap basis.

Three of the last four meetings between the Bolts and Raiders have turned into track meets, and with the offensive talent on both teams, that could again be the case here. Trust one of the league's most frequently targeted pass catchers over the last three years to go Over this modest total. 

Darren Waller Prop: Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)

Sunday sacks

Here’s a pair of transactions that happened over the offseason: Khalil Mack was traded to the Chargers, and the Raiders cut 2021 first-round pick, Alex Leatherwood. The ripple effects of both moves take center stage here, as we back Joey Bosa to abuse Raiders right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and record an opening-day sack.

Mack’s presence will do wonders for Bosa, who has long since established himself as one of the league’s elite edge rushers. There are so many wrinkles the Bolts can do with this pair. 

They can align Mack wide, as a 9-tech, and have both him and Bosa rush off the same side. They can kick Bosa inside, where his quickness and hand work can devastate guards, with Mack rushing off his outside shoulder. There will be plenty of stunts and games to run. 

For this purpose, however, we’re going to play it simple, with Mack on one end and Bosa on the other. The pair bookending the line will afford both a ton of 1-on-1 looks with tackles in space, as the opposition can’t afford to slide protect one way or the other. 

When Bosa, who does the majority of his work coming off the defense’s left, gets a 1-on-1 with Eluemunor… it’s a wrap. This is a journeyman lineman who has played a ton at guard, not tackle, including as recently as last month before Vegas surprisingly parted with Leatherwood. It’s an absolutely brutal assignment for a player not used to playing on an island, and now he’ll face a player whose bull rush is equally effective as a cross-chop. 

Getting the ball out rapidly will be the only thing that will keep Derek Carr clean on Sunday and even then, it’ll just be a matter of time until Bosa gets home. 

Unless the juice makes it not worth our while, I'll be taking Bosa to record a sack on Sunday when it hits the board. 

Joey Bosa Prop: Over 0.5 sacks (+108)

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