The Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday in Week 12. This AFC West clash features a duel between two of the league's top tight ends in Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers and my Raiders vs. Chiefs player props are backing both for big games.
I'm also backing quarterback Aidan O'Connell in what could be a high-volume passing game with my NFL picks for Friday, November 29.
Raiders vs Chiefs props
O'Connell Over 215.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)- Bowers Over 61.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Raiders vs Chiefs props
Prop bet #1: Aidan O'Connell Over 215.5 passing yards
Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone last week which means the Las Vegas Raiders will have Aidan O'Connell under center on Friday. O'Connell isn't an NFL-caliber starter but he should throw the ball enough to go Over his meager passing yards total this week.
In the only game where O'Connell started and finished this year, he completed 27 of 40 passes for 227 yards versus Pittsburgh's stingy pass defense. He also threw for more than 240 yards in five of his final seven starts last season, which included a game against the Kansas City Chiefs where he had 248 yards through the air. Kansas City's stop unit has been subpar against the pass this year, ranking 18th in defensive dropback EPA and 23rd in defensive drop success rate.
The Raiders have the league's worst rushing attack and with their top two running backs banged up (Zamir White has been ruled out while Alexander Mattison is questionable), they'll be even more likely to throw the ball. When you also factor in that Vegas is a 13.5-point dog and could have a negative game script, the Over passing yards for O'Connell makes plenty of sense.
Prop bet #2: Brock Bowers Over 61.5 receiving yards
Expect a bounce-back performance from Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers who is coming off a rough performance against the Broncos stingy pass defense. Bowers finished with four catches for 38 yards against Denver but still saw a team-high 10 targets and with the Raiders lacking quality options at wide receiver, he'll keep getting fed the ball.
The rookie out of Georgia has been as good as advertised after being taken with the 13th pick in this year's draft. He leads all tight ends in targets (99), receptions (74), and receiving yards (744) and has racked up 70+ yards in four of his last seven games. Bowers also hauled in nine catches for 71 yards when O'Connell started in Week 6 versus Pittsburgh.
Kansas City's defense has been vulnerable against tight ends, giving up a league-high 6.3 receptions and 72.5 receiving yards per game to the position.
Prop bet #3: Travis Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards
The Chiefs have been the league's worst team at defending tight ends but the Raiders haven't been much better, allowing 61.5 ypg to the position. Vegas is 27th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and success rate which is bad news with Travis Kelce and the Chiefs on deck.
Kelce was really quiet at the start of the season but has picked things up over the last couple of months. The nine-time Pro Bowler has eclipsed the 60-yard mark in six of his last eight games and had 10 catches for 90 yards against Vegas in Week 8.
With the Chiefs installed as 13.5-point favorites, there's a risk that they'll get up big early and lean on the run. That said, they haven't been winning big lately going 0-5 ATS in their previous five games, and barely beat the lowly Panthers last week. If the Raiders can avoid getting boat-raced early, the Chiefs should pass enough for Kelce to go Over his receiving yards.
Best Raiders vs Chiefs bonus
Get $150 in bonus bets when you win with FanDuel!
New users can create an account at FanDuel and place your first bet of $5+ on the NFL — and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins!
Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.
More Raiders vs Chiefs picks from Covers
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
