For the second time in less than a month, the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in an AFC West battle.
The first meeting, in Week 10, represented a high-point of Patrick Mahomes' season but also helped to extend a winning streak that is now five games, as Kansas City's defense has hit its stride. On the other side, Las Vegas has continued to struggle since that loss, with just one win in its last five.
Here are our NFL picks and predictions for Raiders vs. Chiefs, with kickoff on December 12.
Raiders vs Chiefs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line opened between Chiefs -8.5 and -9.5 and has since been bet up to -10 at most books. The total opened as high as 50.5 but action on the Under has seen it drop to 48.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Raiders vs Chiefs predictions
- Prediction: Chiefs -10 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 48 (-110)
- Best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 284.5 yards (-115)
Predictions made on 12/9/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Raiders vs Chiefs game info
• Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Raiders at Chiefs betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Raiders: Jermaine Eluemunor OT (Out), Amik Robertson CB (Out), Kendal Vickers DE (Out), Denzel Perryman LB (Out), Carl Nassib DE (Out), Patrick Onwuasor LB (Out), Darren Waller TE (Out), Nick Kwiatkoski LB (Out), Kenyan Drake RB (Out), Richie Incognito G (Out).
Chiefs: Dicaprio Bootle DB (Out), Shane Buechele QB (Out), Kyle Long OG (Out), L'Jarius Sneed CB (Out), Prince Tega-Wanogho OT (Out), Khalen Saunders DT (Out), Mike Remmers T (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Chiefs' last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.
Raiders vs Chiefs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Despite the vaunted Chiefs' offense still only showing up in brief glimpses, the AFC power has effectively turned its season around on the back of a typical Steve Spagnuolo defense coming alive as the season progresses.
Kansas City's defense is up to 14th in weighted DVOA as the secondary has gotten healthier, All-Pro Chris Jones has come alive since returning to his natural position inside, and Frank Clark has started to show up more consistently. A hideous first five weeks is far in the past, with the Chiefs holding six of their last seven opponents to under 20 points.
In this same matchup last month, Kansas City dominated the Raiders' offense, limiting them to 29.9 yards and 1.4 points per drive, both of which would be Top 5 season-long marks in the league.
The same can be said on the other side of the ball, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense turned back the clock and went up-and-down on Vegas' defense. Kansas City's efficiency has remained decent enough even amid struggles but its numbers in that first meeting were absurd, averaging 53 yards and 4.1 points per drive.
The Chiefs have proven, even as recently as last month, to be able to move the ball up and down on Vegas' defense — and will again here. The Raiders, meanwhile, have proven that not even the soft coverage of garbage time helps the current, broken offense. In their first matchup, the game was nearly already out of reach when the Raiders got the ball back halfway through the third quarter. The following four possessions went fumble, interception, punt, turnover on downs.
As it's currently performing, Las Vegas' offense is unable to keep games close in losses. That will happen again here.
Prediction: Chiefs -10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
It's difficult to overstate just how massive the loss of Henry Ruggs has been to the Raiders' offense. His ability to stretch defenses vertically not only gave Las Vegas a genuine explosive element but opened up everything underneath for Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. Since Ruggs' arrest and subsequent release, with the exception of their Thanksgiving day showing, the Raiders' offense has been nonexistent.
Despite starting the year brilliantly and playing like one of the NFL's best offenses, with a once-timid Derek Carr taking what he wanted, Vegas' season-long marks already reflect considerable regression. The Raiders are down to 17th in offensive DVOA, below ugly attacks like the Seahawks and Broncos. They're 13th in yards and 16th in points per drive, while sinking all the way to 21st in drive success rate.
In its four losses since the bye, Vegas has averaged 14.5 points despite trailing big in two of those games and getting presented with plenty of garbage time. We expect a strong day from the Chiefs on offense but with the total at 48, we need both teams to come to play to hit the Over. Vegas can't be trusted to do that.
Prediction: Under 48 (-110)
Best bet
Less than a month ago, Mahomes and the Chiefs hung 41 points on the Raiders in Mahomes' best game of the season. The former MVP threw for 406 yards and five scores on 70% completion without a turnover. The opponent in that explosion wasn't a coincidence.
The Raiders and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley play a ton of cover-3 and man-high, which is coverage Mahomes has absolutely torched in his career, as Kansas City's rapid receiver corps and the ultimate seam weapon, Travis Kelce, puts the deep safety in conflict and leads to chunk player after chunk play.
While two-high coverages spread across the league in an effort to contain the prevalence of explosive passing games, Mahomes has had continued success against cover-3 defenses even as recently as Week 10 in Las Vegas. Mahomes may not repeat his fantastic showing in the first matchup, and it may be limited to this opponent, but he'll go Over his passing yards total with ease.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 284.5 yards (-115)
