The Las Vegas Raiders are double-digit NFL betting underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, for the fourth time in the past five meetings between these AFC West rivals, when Vegas comes to Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5.
Books are giving the Raiders 13 points on Sunday, with Las Vegas lugging a two-game skid to Kansas City. The Chiefs were able to win an ugly rescheduled matchup with the New England Patriots on Monday, leaving them a short week to prepare for Week 5.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Raiders vs. Chiefs on October 11.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the mid-80s with winds blowing SSE up 20 mph at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Raiders: Bryan Edwards WR (Out), Maliek Collins DT (Out).
Chiefs: None to report.
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between the Raiders and Chiefs. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Raiders went 1-2 ATS in the previous three games as double-digit dogs versus Kansas City and have managed to cover the spread only once in their last five head-to-head battles. Las Vegas limps into Week 5 with issues across the board, none more glaring than the 120 total points allowed by this team through four weeks.
Granted, Vegas has faced some explosive offenses in the first quarter of the schedule, but Carolina and New England – two methodical attacks – posted point totals of 30 and 36 points respectively. The Raiders defense sits near the bottom of most statistical categories (30th in DVOA at Football Outsiders) and can’t get opponents off the field, rolling out the red carpet for a 50 percent success rate on third downs and a touchdown percentage of almost 65 percent when teams cross Vegas’ 20-yard line.
The Chiefs offense looked stagnant in Monday’s win over New England, getting a ho-hum performance from Patrick Mahomes and just 19 points from their playbook (the Chiefs defense scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter). New England’s stop unit is solid, and it was a strange week of prep for K.C., which didn’t know if it would be playing a game at all until Monday morning.
The short week doesn’t scare me away from the hefty point spread - not when you consider Mahomes has absolutely loved playing against the Raiders. He’s thrown for 11 touchdowns in four games versus Oakland/Las Vegas – his most versus any opponent.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -13 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This total is sitting at 57 points as the 2020 season continues to produce record amounts of scoring. And while we don’t deny the firepower for the Chiefs, the Kansas City defense has been damn good through four weeks.
The Chiefs stop unit is allowing only 17.5 points per game, while limiting opposing passing attacks to a mere 195 average yards through the air. This Kansas City defense is also dangerous, forcing seven takeaways, including four in Monday’s win.
The Raiders offense is without some of its top receiving targets and has had to settle for leaning on the ground game and tight ends to move the chains. Now with missing parts on the offensive line, the rushing attack is starting to dry up. Turnovers have also reared their ugly head, with Las Vegas coughing up the ball five times in the past two games.
These divisional foes have played Under in three straight meetings, with Kansas City allowing a combined 20 points in those games.
PREDICTION: Under 57 (-110)
First Quarter Pick
We bet the first quarter total Under 10 points on Monday night and once again the Chiefs paid out for fans of derivative totals.
Scoring has been very quiet in the opening frame of Kansas City games this season, with an average of just 7.2 points on the board after 15 minutes. The Chiefs have been responsible for only 12 first-quarter tallies through four games, including getting shutout in two opening frames in Weeks 1 and 2.
Las Vegas isn’t lighting the scoreboard on fire early on either, averaging just 3.2 points in the opening 15 minutes. These rivals have produced more than 10 first-quarter points only once in their past five meetings.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 10.5 (-112)
Raiders vs Chiefs betting card
- Kansas City -13 (-110)
- Under 57 (-110)
- First quarter Under 10.5 (-112)
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