The Colts and Raiders head into Week 17 looking to improve their playoff prospects but have taken very different paths to get to this point. The Colts (9-6) began 1-4 but have turned the ship around behind stellar play from Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor and can clinch a playoff berth with a win on Sunday.
The Raiders started 3-0 but went on to lose seven of 10. They’re one of four 8-7 teams vying for the final playoff spot but are on the outside looking in.
Continue reading for our free NFL picks and predictions for Raiders vs. Colts on January 2.
Raiders vs Colts odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line for this game opened Colts -9.5 and steadily moved down to -6.5 after various COVID developments. The line is now either a very juiced -6.5 or a flatter -7 depending on the book. The total has seen similar movement, currently sitting at 44.5 after opening at 47.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Raiders vs Colts predictions
Predictions made on 12/31/2021 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 17, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Bet $1, get $100 in free bets when you sign up with BetVictor! Sign Up Now
Raiders vs Colts game info
• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Raiders at Colts betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Raiders: Johnathan Hankins DT (Out), Darren Waller TE (Out).
Colts: Eric Fisher T (Out), Andrew Sendejo S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last five Raiders games following a straight up win. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Colts.
Raiders vs Colts picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
A team is only as good as its weakest link, and that weakest link is rather easy to identify for every team - even good ones. The Chiefs lack a dependable defense, the Bills' run game is practically nonexistent, the Packers are laughably bad at special teams, the Cowboys are prisoners to Mike McCarthy - the list goes on. But with the Colts, it's hard to nail them for anything.
Carson Wentz has been a revelation ever since the slow start, possessing a 25 to 6 TD:INT ratio on the season, his best since his breakout year in 2017. Jonathan Taylor is playing at a level that has people calling for the first non-quarterback MVP winner in nearly ten years. The offensive line is playing a clear role in that campaign. The defense has reliably and quietly been a Top 10 unit according to DVOA.
If the Colts have struggled anywhere, it hasn't really been structurally - it has been with health along the offensive line. Going across the formation: Eric Fisher is day-to-day, Quenton Nelson missed last week due to COVID, Ryan Kelly has not played since Week 12 due to personal reasons but is set to return this week, Mark Glowinski has been in and out of the lineup since Week 13, and Braden Smith is on the COVID list for Week 17.
Backup right tackle Julie’n Davenport is the likely candidate to fill in for Braden Smith if he fails to test out of protocol in time. Davenport's five-year career thus far has been full of below-average play outside of one outlier season last year, and last week he logged his first snaps since Week 4. To top it all off, he would be tasked with stopping star edge rusher Maxx Crosby if he indeed gets the nod.
Smith's potential absence would also be of no help to Carson Wentz, who could miraculously play this Sunday following the NFL's update to COVID protocols. Previously, unvaccinated players who tested positive were forced to spend ten days away from team facilities. Under the new protocols, players (both vaccinated and unvaccinated) can return after a five-day isolation period as long as they are asymptomatic. Since Wentz went on the COVID list on Tuesday, he has a chance to play.
If Wentz does not play, Sam Ehlinger would step into the starter role and may have a hard go at it. The rookie quarterback was a sixth-round selection and for good reason: he lacks the arm talent, intelligence, and discipline to be a long-lasting starter in the league. But if Wentz can't go on Sunday the Colts won't need Ehlinger to be long-lasting, they'll need his strengths (dual-threat presence, confidence in the face of pressure, intangibles) to shine through in a big way.
To make the assignment a little easier, the Raiders are facing COVID complications on the defensive side of the ball. Four starters (DB Casey Hayward Jr, LB Denzel Perryman, LB KJ Wright, and LB Cory Littleton) are currently on the COVID list, but all could potentially return under the new guidelines.
If third-round rookie linebacker Divine Deablo can go (currently listed as questionable with an injury), any non-Perryman absences in the linebacking corps would go largely unnoticed. Deablo has finally begun to see the field and has been a rare bright spot for the Raiders, and is arguably already their second-best linebacker. Elsewhere, starting strong safety Jonathan Abram was placed on IR this week but his absence is also manageable. Abram was more of a gambler at the position and his backups (i.e. Dallin Leavitt) are more well-rounded talents.
All in all, there are a lot of COVID-related moving parts in this matchup. However, given that we've seen players typically struggle to be in true game shape when immediately returning from a stint on the COVID list, Wentz making it out of protocol in time for this game is less worrying than most are likely to suggest.
Prediction: Raiders +7 (-104)
Over/Under analysis
Although COVID could have an impact on the Colts' offense on Sunday, their starting defense has (so far) evaded the bug and is largely intact. This doesn't bode well for a Raiders offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games.
Much of the Raiders' failures to move the ball in the last two months have been due to the absences of Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, as well as really poor offensive line play from everyone not named Kolton Miller. Waller was set to potentially return this week prior to landing on the COVID list on Wednesday, so he will remain inactive for another contest.
In the other half of this matchup, the Colts either have a returning unvaccinated Carson Wentz that is very unlikely to be in true game shape, or a rookie Sam Ehlinger making his first start. In either of those scenarios, it would be unsurprising if Frank Reich opted to pound the ball with Taylor to shorten this game. All in all, it's hard to find a game script that lends its hand to over the top scoring barring turnovers on the wrong side of the field.
Prediction: Under 44.5 (-105)
Best bet
With Jonathan Taylor likely to have his number called more than usual given the quarterback situation, the Raiders will have the opportunity to stack the box and limit his effectiveness. With a lower offensive ceiling across the board, the Colts’ eighth-best drive success rate (the rate at which a set of new downs leads to a first down or touchdown) is very likely to come down to a more manageable mark for the Raiders' defense.
Don't expect this game to be pretty for the Raiders, but expect it to be manageable and possibly even outright winnable.
Pick: Raiders +7 (-104)
