In the spirit of the holidays, the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers are giving us a gift we don't need or want on Christmas Eve: A game between them.
After salvaging its remaining postseason hopes by shoving Mac Jones into the Earth's core, Las Vegas heads to face a Pittsburgh team similarly 6-8 but seemingly not even on the outer reaches of the playoff landscape. The hosts will, however, see the return of rookie Kenny Pickett.
Get a holiday season's worth of NFL betting picks with our Raiders vs. Steelers props, and check out our Raiders vs. Steelers picks and predictions for more.
Raiders vs Steelers props
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Raiders vs Steelers props
Steeling value
Early on in the season, it was easy to fade Steelers running back Najee Harris. He had no role in the passing game, clearly wasn't healthy, couldn't make anyone miss, and was regularly ceding snaps to backup Jaylen Warren. Though Harris's dynamism remains a long-term concern, he's at least begun seeing a heavy workload again — which makes him a solid Over bet.
After bottoming out with 10 carries for 35 yards on 29% of the offense's snaps in Week 12, December has been a nice rebound for Harris. He's played around 60% of snaps and averaged 19 opportunities (carries plus targets) for 4.07 yards per touch — not great but a promising improvement from the first 11 games of the season, in which he was averaging 17.7 opportunities for 3.8 yards per touch.
Harris's solid December should continue here, as he'll face a Raiders defense that has regularly made the ordinary look so much more this season.
Vegas's defense is dead-last in DVOA and hasn't gotten better, currently ranking 31st in weighted DVOA. Its run defense is a putrid 22nd in DVOA and a slow-footed linebacker corps has been exploited in coverage, with the Raiders giving up the sixth-most targets (7.4 per game), fourth-most catches (6.07), and second-most yards (49.7) to backs in the league.
Between the volume and the opponent, Harris should safely go Over his scrimmage yards total against Vegas.
Najee Harris Prop: Over 70.5 total yards (-114)
Tae day
All-World wideout Davante Adams had one of his more frustrating games with the Raiders last week, catching just four balls for 28 yards. That, in itself, can give us an awful lot of confidence in a rebound performance in Week 16 and take plus-money odds on Adams reaching the six-catch mark — in a season in which he's averaging 6.1 per game.
Though Adams has had more stinkers in this single Vegas season than he had throughout his Green Bay heights, he's consistently bounced back in emphatic fashion. A five-catch, 36-yard game vs. the Titans was followed by nine catches for 101 yards against Denver. A one-catch, three-yard day in New Orleans was forgotten by a 10-catch, 146-yard day in Jacksonville.
Now, Adams is coming off a four-catch, 28-yard day but had averaged 7.3 catches and 122.5 yards in the six games prior.
Adams isn't exactly going to face tremendous resistance in his path, either. Pittsburgh's a middling pass defense, ranking 18th in DVOA and 20th in EPA, but it's been consistently killed by true No. 1 wideouts in 2022.
Ja'Marr Chase (10 catches, 129 yards), Amari Cooper (7/101), Stefon Diggs (8/102), Tyreek Hill (7/72), AJ Brown (6/156), Tee Higgins (9/148), Michael Pittman (7/61), and Drake London (6/95) have all had their way vs. the Steelers.
There are elite, Top-5 caliber wide receivers in that list but Adams trumps them all, still holding the position's crown. With the Over on his 4.5-catch total heavily juiced (-160), take the plus-money odds on 6+ catches and don't look back.
Davante Adams Prop: To record 6+ receptions (+135 at bet365)
Pat nap
Pat Freiermuth is undoubtedly one of the surest ascending talents at tight end and has had a solid sophomore season. He has, however, faded from the Steelers' offense over the last three weeks and we can expect that to continue in Week 16.
Three of Freiermuth's four lowest snap counts on the year have come in the last three games and he hasn't played 60% of the offense's snaps in any of the last three — after playing 65% or more in nine of the first 10.
Unsurprinslgy, his passing game involvement has taken a hit as a result, too. He had season-low route participation rates in back-to-back games in Weeks 13 and 14, then still failed to reach his season average last week.
That same stretch has seen his usual steady production plummet. His 3.6 targets, 2.0 catches, and 36.3 yards per game (skewed by a long 57-yard catch-and-run vs. Atlanta) is a far cry from his first 10, in which he was averaging 7.1 targets, 4.7 catches, and 52.1 yards.
While the Raiders' defense is certainly flawed, it has actually remained respectable defending tight ends this year, with its 49.7 yards per game right at the middle of the league. Freiermuth isn't getting the matchup he needs to break out of this slump, and even if he was, he isn't getting the requisite volume.
Pat Freiermuth Prop: Under 37.5 receiving yards (-114)
