The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16 of NFL action on Saturday night. Both teams are 6-8, and whoever loses would be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
Pittsburgh opened as a 2-point home favorite with the Over/Under at 40.5, but with frigid temperatures and brutal winds, the total has dropped to 38.5.
Santa might have a tough time riding through the stormy weather this Christmas Eve, but we'll help you navigate the NFL betting board with our free NFL picks and predictions for Raiders vs. Steelers on December 24. For more, be sure to check out our Raiders vs. Steelers prop picks.
Raiders vs Steelers best odds
Raiders vs Steelers picks and predictions
It's expected to be a clear night in Pittsburgh, but the cold temperatures and high winds could make it tough for these vertical passing attacks to get going. That should make both sides lean on their ground games and short passes, which will mean action for Steelers running back Jaylen Warren.
The undrafted rookie has earned the trust of head coach Mike Tomlin and is coming off a game where he had a career-high 11 carries for 38 yards while adding a reception for 11 yards.
Although Najee Harris is still Pittsburgh's primary back, Warren's blocking and pass-catching abilities have earned him a 30.2% snap share as the team's third-down back. He has gotten more than 10 receiving yards in six of his last seven games and is averaging 18.9 receiving yards per game over that span.
The Raiders are last in the league in defensive pass DVOA against running backs and have given up a league-worst 697 yards to the position. With rookie Kenny Pickett back at quarterback this week and wind playing a factor, look for Warren to be targeted out of the backfield.
My best bet: Jaylen Warren Over 9.5 receiving yards (-114)
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Raiders vs Steelers spread analysis
Since reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt returned to the field last month, the Steelers have gone 4-2 straight up and against the spread. That said, all those victories came against teams that are 5-9 or worse.
They are coming off a 24-16 victory against Carolina, where they rumbled for 156 yards on the ground and had 36 minutes of possession while limiting the Panthers to 21 rushing yards on 16 carries.
The Raiders are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five. In their last contest, they got an early Christmas present from the Patriots, who literally threw the game away on the final play to give Vegas a 30-24 victory.
Davante Adams had a very quiet contest and hauled in just four of nine targets for 28 yards. The All-Pro wideout has racked up 110.2 receiving yards per game in his previous six contests, and QB Derek Carr will look to get him the ball against a weak group of Steelers corners.
The Raiders also have the league's leading rusher in Josh Jacobs (1,495 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry), and that balanced attack ranks eighth in the league with 5.8 yards per play.
However, the Raiders have been brutal on the other side of the ball and rank last in the league in DVOA defense, according to Football Outsiders. That should make it a bit easier for this sluggish Steelers offense to move the ball.
Even with Watt and a strong pass rush, the Steelers' defense has been merely average this season, ranking 13th in DVOA. They have looked extremely good in recent weeks but have been feasting on some weak offenses. The last decent offense Pittsburgh faced was the Bengals in Week 11, and it surrendered 408 yards and 37 points in that contest.
Raiders vs Steelers Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams are practically opposites in terms of what they do well. The Raiders have a solid offense and an atrocious defense, while the Steelers are the complete opposite and average just 17.9 points per game.
That said, with the freezing temperatures and high winds for this game, oddsmakers aren't expecting much passing from either side.
If the wind affects Carr's ability to attack deep, the Raiders won't be able to exploit Pittsburgh's secondary and will likely pound the ball with Jacobs.
Pickett is back under center after missing last week (and almost all of Week 14) with a concussion. The rookie QB has flashed his potential at times but is still way too inconsistent. Pittsburgh's ground game has been more reliable and ranks 13th in rush DVOA, but it doesn't pick up many big plays.
Raiders vs Steelers betting trend to know
The Under is 8-2 in Pittsburgh's last 10 home games while going 4-1 in Oakland's previous five contests on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Steelers.
Raiders vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 24, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Steelers -2, 40.5 O/U |
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Raiders vs Steelers weather
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