Wins over the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets will only go so far. The Buffalo Bills get their first true test of the 2020 NFL season when the Los Angeles Rams visit Orchard Park in Week 3.
The NFL betting odds have Buffalo as a 2.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s non-conference clash. The Rams are also 2-0 after wins against NFC East foes Philadelphia and Dallas but face a daunting travel schedule due to COVID restrictions.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Rams vs. Bills on September 27.
Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the high 70s and winds blowing up to 15 mph for Orchard Park on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Rams: Cam Akers RB (Out), Joe Noteboom G (Out).
Bills: Del'Shawn Phillips LB (Out), Zack Moss RB (Out), Dawson Knox TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Rams are 5-0 SU and ATS in 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT) road kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone under head coach Sean McVay. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Bills.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Bills are having great success with their revamped passing game, topping the NFL in yards through the air. New receiver Stefon Diggs has added a deep-threat danger to the passing attack and the play-calling has been fantastic, spreading the ball around and keeping opponents guessing.
But again, that came against Miami and New York, who rank 32nd and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA respectively. Los Angeles is a different beast (ranked eighth in pass defense DVOA), especially this L.A. pass rush.
The Rams defense is disruptive to opposing passing games, putting the fear of god into rival quarterbacks with Aaron Donald on the hunt. Even when Donald and the pass rush are contained, like they were versus Philadelphia last Sunday, that threat still changes the offense and makes opponents go to quicker, shorter passes.
That doesn’t fit the Bills’ MO, not with Josh Allen slinging the ball for seven receptions of 20 or more yards already this year. Buffalo did shorten up the playbook against Miami, but those early-season results should almost be treated like preseason games.
Los Angeles, which faces a doozy of a travel schedule in Week 3 (fly to Philadelphia Saturday, back to L.A on Sunday, and fly to Buffalo on Saturday), has allowed only four passing plays of 20 or more yards and won’t give Allen the time he needs to get off those deep strikes.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Sean McVay loves to exploit the middle of the field, and we will see plenty of inside passes against a Bills defense struggling with its coverage.
Buffalo, which has allowed the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Sam Darnold to pick it apart, desperately missed the versatile linebacker combo of Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano. Those two elite coverage linebackers are but on the field Sunday, but they're likely not 100 percent healthy, so Leslie Frazier may have to continue rolling out more dime coverage than he would like.
McVay will look to exploit that weak spot with tight end Tyler Higbee, who had a monster day versus the Eagles, catching all five passes his way for 54 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll follow the blueprint of Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki, who posted 130 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions in Week 2. Both Edmunds and Milano are listed as questionable for Sunday.
The soft second halves from the Bills are reason for concern, giving up 32 of their total 45 points against in the last 30 minutes of action through two games in 2020. There are far more weapons on this L.A. offense to worry about than whoever the Fins and Jets rolled out the past two weeks.
PREDICTION: Over 47.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Second-year running back Darrell Henderson Jr. is emerging as an important piece of L.A.’s offense after moving on from RB Todd Gurley this offseason.
He carried the ball only three times in Week 1 but got 12 touches for 81 yards rushing and was targeted three times for two catches and 40 yards receiving against Philadelphia last weekend, adding a rushing touchdown in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.
Henderson could see his activity climb again with fellow RBs Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers nursing injuries heading into Week 3. With those holes in the coverage at linebacker, and Buffalo turning its attention to slowing Rams TE Higbee, Henderson will be a nice option on short passes over the top of the line with plenty of YAC (yards after catch).
He’s good value bet to go Over his total yards prop but with Buffalo boasting a stingy rushing attack, we’re leaning to the touchdown markets, where Henderson is paying a pretty return to find pay dirt for the second straight week.
PREDICTION: Darrell Henderson Jr. touchdown anytime (+110)
Rams vs Bills betting card
- Los Angeles +2.5 (-110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Darrell Henderson Jr. touchdown anytime (+110)
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