Rams vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: Prescott & Co. Shine at Home

The Dallas Cowboys come into Sunday rested and ready for the visiting Los Angeles Rams, and it shows in the NFL odds.

Dallas, fresh off a bye week, is flirting with a touchdown in Week 8 odds.

The Cowboys were last seen squeaking out an unimpressive win over the L.A. Chargers on Monday Night Football two weeks ago and hope the time off can help tighten the screws on this underperforming offense.

As for the Rams, they hit the road after a frustrating loss to Pittsburgh in Week 7. Los Angeles started 2023 with some unexpected fight, but that level of play has been hard to sustain.

Sunday’s trip to Arlington is also L.A.’s first road game since October 1, when they held on for an overtime win at Indianapolis after blowing a 23-0 lead.

I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this Week 8 matchup and give my best NFL picks for Rams vs. Cowboys on October 29.

Rams vs Cowboys odds

Rams vs Cowboys predictions

Jerry’s World is a sight for sore eyes when the Dallas Cowboys come home for the first time in 41 days on Sunday.

This Week 8 date with the Los Angeles Rams is just Dallas’ third home stand of the season, after playing back-to-back games in California before its bye in Week 7.

AT&T Stadium is where the Cowboys do their best work, and the friendly surroundings and two-week hiatus are hoping to snap the team’s offensive funk. Dallas has posted scores of 20, 10, and 16 points in three of their last four games (all on the road), with issues breaking the goal line in the red zone.

Dallas owns one of the biggest home-field spikes in output across the NFL for the past four seasons. The Cowboys have averaged over nine points more at home than on the road, including a 12.5-point gap in home/away splits this season.

That production is a bit skewed as well due to one-sided scores and defensive touchdowns from Dallas in its two home games: versus the New York Jets and New England Patriots. The Cowboys took their foot off the gas offensively in the final 30 minutes of those outings, handing off and chewing up clock to protect the lead.

That won’t be the case in Week 8.

Los Angeles’ offense is efficient and could put pressure on Dallas to keep pace, especially with the Cowboys missing some key pieces of this defense. The Cowboys have allowed big plays against, with 16 passing strikes of 20 or more. The Rams have the receivers to do just that and boast 17 plays of 20-plus entering Week 8 — tied for second most in the NFL.

As for Los Angeles’ defense, it just allowed 24 points to the slumping Steelers attack and has been thrown around by capable offenses like the Eagles, Colts, and 49ers, giving up about six yards per play in those outings.

Dak Prescott, who has caught plenty of flack for his play during this recent stumble, has a career passer rating of 103.4 inside AT&T Stadium (vs. 91.5 on the road) with an average of almost two touchdown passes per homestand, compared to 1.4 on the road. Even a slight improvement from his red-zone work will be a massive uptick in points for America's Team.

Dallas’ team total for Week 8 sits at 26.5 points, which is well below its four-year season average going back to 2020. The Cowboys have topped their team total in both home stands this season and are an incredible 20-8 Over/Under on their team total going back to 2020.

My best bet: Cowboys Team Total Over 26.5 points (-107 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Rams vs Cowboys same-game parlay

Dallas team total Over 34.5

Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Tutu Atwell Over 25.5 receiving yards

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+362 +543 at FanDuel

Dallas scores an extra nine points per game inside Jerry’s World and this Rams defense has given up their fair share of points to top-tier offenses. Dak also plays his best ball in Arlington and will throw for two or more touchdowns for just the second game this season.

Meanwhile, Tutu Atwell’s speed and ability to break off home run plays will hurt a Dallas defense that is getting beat for big plays.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rams vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis

The offseason odds had Dallas as big as -7.5 versus Los Angeles in Week 8, with the Rams projected to be among the worst teams in the league. However, L.A. put forth a strong start to the season and the look-ahead line was parked at Dallas -6 before the Rams fell to the Steelers this past Sunday.

The official Week 8 opener hit the board as low as Cowboys -5.5 and quickly jumped to as high as -6.5 on Sunday night. Since then, the market consensus has settled in at that spread, with a possible move to a touchdown if more money shows on the host. According to Covers Consensus, 63% of early picks are laying the points with Dallas.

Any action on the Cowboys hopes the time off helped head coach Mike McCarthy fix this new-look offense, which sputtered in the opening six games. Dallas is utilizing a quick-hitting passing scheme for Prescott, which has turned out a solid completion rate (69.74%) but not the greatest gains (7.0 yards per attempt).

Dallas’ attack has been especially soft inside the red zone. The Cowboys are a collective 9-for-23 when it comes to scoring touchdowns on red-zone possessions (26th), including a 2-for-4 night versus the Chargers’ dismal defense.

The Rams, on the other hand, haven’t been the most explosive playbook but are efficient and making the most of their chances. Los Angeles has cashed in a touchdown in 60% of its trips inside opponents’ 20-yard lines and sits seventh in EPA per play.

The rushing side of that attack is running thin, however, with the Rams down a few key running backs, including starting running back Kyren Williams. Los Angeles is becoming one-dimensional due to that lack of a run game and opposing defenses are coming after veteran passer Matt Stafford, who has dropped back on almost 60% of snaps this season.

Stafford has been blasted for 17 sacks the past five games behind an offensive line ranked 27th in pass block win rate. That’s an issue against an aggressive Dallas defense that loves to bring extra attackers, with a blitz rate of over 30%. Stafford is normally very sound at beating up this type of scheme, ranking 10th at Pro Football Focus versus blitzing defenses.

The Over/Under total for this NFC matchup opened at 45.5 points and has climbed to 46 at some books as of Tuesday. According to Covers Consensus, 58% of early picks are siding with the Over.

Dallas comes into Week 8 with a 3-3 Over/Under mark on the season. The Cowboys’ offensive issues inside the red zone have burned Over backers. This offense has run a more methodical pace overall, but that has more to do with some one-sided scores slowing things down in the second half.

As for L.A., it’s one of the better Under plays so far in 2023 at 2-5 O/U. The Rams also play at a slower pace, ranking 20th in seconds per play. 

Rams vs Cowboys betting trend to know

Dallas has topped its team total in 20 of its last 28 homes games, including both home stands this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Cowboys.

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