The Miami Dolphins have won back-to-back games and three of their last four contests (3-1 ATS). So naturally, it’s time to make a change at quarterback. Wait… WTF?
The red-hot Dolphins are benching veteran passer Ryan Fitzpatrick for highly-hyped rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa when they host the Los Angeles Rams as 4-point NFL betting underdogs in Week 8. Miami is coming off a bye while L.A. is on a short week after defeating Chicago on Monday night.
These are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Rams vs. Dolphins on November 1.
Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for temperatures in the high-80s with a minimal (2 percent) chance of rain and winds blowing around 10 mph at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Rams: A'Shawn Robinson DT (Out).
Dolphins: None to report.
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Rams are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Dolphins.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Apparently, that’s not a common phrase in Florida. How else can you explain the Dolphins' decision to bench Fitzpatrick in the midst of the franchise’s best four-game stretch in two seasons? Sure, Fitz-Magic is a roll of the dice every time he drops back but the guy is having a solid season so far: his 95.0 passer rating better than a lot of other starting QBs.
Now, unplugging the Beard for the fresh face of Tua could slow any momentum this passing game has had and throws a wrench in a Miami attack that ranks middle of the road in offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. Not only that, but this rush move may divide the locker room with a quarterback controversy that wasn’t there two weeks ago.
Los Angeles’ pass rush was underperforming to start the season but is starting to find its footing, with four sacks against the Bears Monday night and eight versus Washington in Week 5. And while the Dolphins offensive line has done a good job protecting the passer (only 10 sacks allowed), the footsteps of Aaron Donald is enough to rattle even the most seasoned veteran, let alone a rookie make his first pro start.
Third downs are going to have a lot of folks sporting aqua and coral holding their breath on Sunday. Under Fitzpatrick, Miami converted on only 35 percent of its third-down snaps over the past three games. The Rams boast a defensive third-down percentage of just 27.5 percent and Donald has collected four of his eight sacks on third downs.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Dolphins defense knows it has to step up for the rookie passer. If Miami falls behind and the Fins are forced to abandon the run and go pass-heavy, it could be a long day for Tagovailoa.
So far in 2020, the Miami stop unit has been OK, ranked 14th in defensive DVOA and doing a lot of things right: limiting opponents to a league-low 31.34 percent success rate on third down and holding rival passing games to just 5.5 yards per attempt over the last three contests.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams have a clock-chewing running game that wears down opponents with over 49 percent of their offensive snaps taking to the ground. Los Angeles just went for 161 yards rushing on 34 carries against a very good Chicago defense, which helped L.A. control the clock for 32:35 of TOP.
The Rams special teams have also done their share to help the stop unit. Los Angeles owns an average defensive starting field position of 25.49 (just between the 25 and 26-yard line) and punter Johnny Hekker is one of the best in the biz, flexing his foot muscles with key kicks in Monday’s win.
The weather could also slow things down in South Beach, with the forecast calling for possible thundershowers and winds blowing up to 15 mph.
PREDICTION: Under 46 (-110)
Player prop pick
Rookie passers love them some sweet, sweet tight end… the position (get your head out of the gutter!).
Tight ends are often the check-down safety blanket for young QBs when that internal alarm clock starts ringing in their head. And with the Rams’ pass rush coming at you, that clock goes off early. That makes Miami TE Mike Gesicki a tasty prop option in Week 8.
Gesicki didn’t do anything against the Jets two weeks ago (zero receiving yards on two targets) but has reeled in 30 balls for 281 yards and two touchdowns this season. When Tua needs to get rid of the ball, Gesicki will be a prime option.
Los Angeles has allowed 379 total yards (eighth-most) and four touchdowns to rival tight ends this year, including a combined 91 yards to the Bears’ trio of TEs on Monday night. The game before that, San Francisco TE George Kittle ran wild for 109 yards on seven grabs and a touchdown.
PREDICTION: Mike Gesicki Over 33.5 yards (-120)
Rams vs Dolphins betting card
- Los Angeles -4 (-110)
- Under 46 (-110)
- Mike Gesicki Over 33.5 yards (-120)
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