Rams vs Lions Wild Card Player Props and NFL Bets: Nacua a No-Doubt Play vs Detroit

Our NFL betting picks are keen on points being scored in Rams vs. Lions, and have identified three player props to take advantage of. Puka Nacua is fresh off establishing a new rookie receiving record and should keep on rolling in the Motor City.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Jan 14, 2024 • 18:00 ET • 4 min read

Matthew Stafford's return to the Motor City is going to be the storyline that dominates coverage of the Wild Card game between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions at Ford Field. And while it’s exciting to see Stafford and Jared Goff face off against their former teams in primetime, the rookies taking the field will be just as important despite having no Super Bowl odds experience.

The NFL odds have the Lions as 3-point home favorites, but things could get hairy for the Detroit defense if rookie phenom Puka Nacua gets loose. Luckily for Lions head coach Dan Campbell, he has a pair of electric rookies of his own.

Find out where our best bets lie in our NFL picks and predictions for Rams vs. Lions props on Sunday, January 14. And don’t forget to check out our full-game Rams vs. Lions picks as well as our Matthew Stafford odds and props spotlight. 

Rams vs Lions Wild Card props

Picks made on January 13 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Best NFL Wild Card bonuses

BetMGM +180 BOOSTED to +225
Williams 75+/Gibbs 45+ rush yards
EV = ⭐⭐
Claim Now (all users)

bet365 -250 BOOSTED to +100
Kupp/St. Brown 50+ receiving yards each
EV = ⭐⭐
Claim Now (all users)

Caesars +225 BOOSTED to +240
Goff 275+ pass yards/2+ pass TD
EV = ⭐⭐
Claim Now (all users)

Betway +140 BOOSTED to +165
Goff 275+ pass/Williams 50+ rush yds
EV = ⭐⭐
Claim Now (all users)

FanDuel All Users
St. Brown, Nacua, Kupp 50+ 1Q rec yds
-110 BOOSTED to +150! Claim Now

DraftKings All Users
30% boost for one NFL bet
+110 BOOSTS to +143! Claim Now

Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Rams vs Lions props

Prop bet #1: Nifty Nacua

When Puka Nacua was selected with the No. 177 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, not one person on earth expected him to turn in this type of rookie campaign. He landed in the perfect system for his skill set and Sean McVay helped turn the BYU product into a second-team All-Pro as a rookie.

Nacua broke Bill Groman’s 63-year-old record for rookie receiving yards in a season and put the cherry on top of his dominant campaign by breaking Jaylen Waddle’s rookie receptions record too. The entire football world thought his numbers would drop off at some point, but they haven't. With this matchup in Detroit, he’s primed to continue giving defensive backs all they can handle.

The Lions’ defense has been shaky under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn this season, as it’s 21st in EPA per play while allowing 23.2 points per game, 23rd in the league. Where it’s really been beat up is in the back seven. Detroit’s had one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking fourth in EPA per rush, but has been pulled down by its pass defense, or lack thereof.

The Lions are 25th in EPA per dropback this season, and have been worse in the second half of the season ranking 29th in EPA per dropback since Week 10. This defense is allowing 247.2 passing yards per game, and starting cornerback Cameron Sutton has actually allowed the most receiving yards of any player in the NFL this season (888).

With Stafford playing some of the best football of his career over his last six games — he ranks fourth in EPA per play, fifth in success rate, and sixth in CPOE since Week 12 — the Puka Nacua odds are he will have plenty of opportunities to do what he does best, which is win over the middle, after the catch, and on vertical deep shots.

Nacua has averaged 87.4 receiving yards per game this season and had at least 76 receiving yards in eight of 17 games, including four of his last six. 

Puka Nacua prop: Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Gibbs gets his chances

Nacua was without a doubt the best rookie receiver in the league this season, and while there’s some debate over which rookie running back was the most impactful, it’s hard to bet against the Jahmyr Gibbs odds.

Lions GM Brad Holmes was criticized when he took Gibbs with the 12th overall pick — due to positional value — and yet it’s all worked out in the Motor City. 

The former Alabama and Georgia Tech star took a few weeks to get going, but since returning from injury in Week 7, he’s been one of the best backs in the NFL. His combination of explosiveness, contact balance, and pass-catching prowess has turned him into one of the best backs in football.

Gibbs has become a key piece to Ben Johnson’s offense and finished second on the team in yards from scrimmage (1,261) behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and second on the team in touches (234) behind David Montgomery. He’s set up well to see plenty of opportunity against this Rams defense.

Raheem Morris’ unit has been a little uninspiring this season ranking 20th in EPA per play, 18th in EPA per dropback, and 13th in EPA per rush. It held teams to 106.8 rushing yards per game, but Gibbs ability in the passing game makes him a double threat against the Rams.

He’s averaging 15.6 touches for 84 yards from scrimmage per game (63 rushing, 21 receiving) and has seen an uptick in production since Week 7 when he established himself as one of the best backs in the league. Over his last 11 games, Gibbs is averaging 16.5 touches for 92 yards from scrimmage per game (69.6 rushing, 22.4 receiving).

Down the stretch Gibbs has utilized more by Johnson both as a runner and receiver and it paid off with him becoming a mismatch nightmare. 

Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Over 79.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Good Sam

Only five rookies finished with at least 10 touchdowns this season and two are on the Lions. Along with Gibbs, Sam LaPorta was one of the most important pieces to Detroit winning the NFC North this season.

The second-round pick out of Iowa had a historically impressive rookie year for a tight end, finishing with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. A knee injury in the final game of the season put some doubt into whether or not LaPorta would play against the Rams, but all signs point to him suiting up.

LaPorta was a full participant in practice on Friday and is listed as questionable, while backups Brock Wright and James Mitchell both also have injury designations. Mitchell is officially out with a hand injury and Wright’s status is unspecified. Point being, Detroit is going to need LaPorta.

He was second in every receiving category on the team behind St. Brown this season and has become a red-zone favorite of Goff’s with at least one touchdown in seven of 17 games. Over the last seven games of the season, LaPorta hauled in six touchdowns and the Rams are the perfect team to utilize him against.

Few defenses have struggled with tight ends as much as Morris’ has this season. The Rams allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends (987) and tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to them (eight). 

With how creative Johnson has been designing plays to get LaPorta the ball near the end zone, the Sam LaPorta odds are good that he’ll have plenty of chances against L.A.

Sam LaPorta prop: Anytime TD (+125 at bet365)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site
.

🕒Vermont: Sports betting is here!🕒

Vermont sports betting launched on January 11 — register now with our best Vermont sports betting apps as well as checking out the best Vermont sportsbook promos in the Green Mountain State!

21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Google News
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the star to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic

Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo