Rams vs Lions Wild Card Player Props and NFL Bets: Nacua a No-Doubt Play vs Detroit

Prop bet #1: Nifty Nacua

When Puka Nacua was selected with the No. 177 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, not one person on earth expected him to turn in this type of rookie campaign. He landed in the perfect system for his skill set and Sean McVay helped turn the BYU product into a second-team All-Pro as a rookie.

Nacua broke Bill Groman’s 63-year-old record for rookie receiving yards in a season and put the cherry on top of his dominant campaign by breaking Jaylen Waddle’s rookie receptions record too. The entire football world thought his numbers would drop off at some point, but they haven't. With this matchup in Detroit, he’s primed to continue giving defensive backs all they can handle.

The Lions’ defense has been shaky under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn this season, as it’s 21st in EPA per play while allowing 23.2 points per game, 23rd in the league. Where it’s really been beat up is in the back seven. Detroit’s had one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking fourth in EPA per rush, but has been pulled down by its pass defense, or lack thereof.

The Lions are 25th in EPA per dropback this season, and have been worse in the second half of the season ranking 29th in EPA per dropback since Week 10. This defense is allowing 247.2 passing yards per game, and starting cornerback Cameron Sutton has actually allowed the most receiving yards of any player in the NFL this season (888).

With Stafford playing some of the best football of his career over his last six games — he ranks fourth in EPA per play, fifth in success rate, and sixth in CPOE since Week 12 — the Puka Nacua odds are he will have plenty of opportunities to do what he does best, which is win over the middle, after the catch, and on vertical deep shots.

Nacua has averaged 87.4 receiving yards per game this season and had at least 76 receiving yards in eight of 17 games, including four of his last six. 

Puka Nacua prop: Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Gibbs gets his chances

Nacua was without a doubt the best rookie receiver in the league this season, and while there’s some debate over which rookie running back was the most impactful, it’s hard to bet against the Jahmyr Gibbs odds.

Lions GM Brad Holmes was criticized when he took Gibbs with the 12th overall pick — due to positional value — and yet it’s all worked out in the Motor City. 

The former Alabama and Georgia Tech star took a few weeks to get going, but since returning from injury in Week 7, he’s been one of the best backs in the NFL. His combination of explosiveness, contact balance, and pass-catching prowess has turned him into one of the best backs in football.

Gibbs has become a key piece to Ben Johnson’s offense and finished second on the team in yards from scrimmage (1,261) behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and second on the team in touches (234) behind David Montgomery. He’s set up well to see plenty of opportunity against this Rams defense.

Raheem Morris’ unit has been a little uninspiring this season ranking 20th in EPA per play, 18th in EPA per dropback, and 13th in EPA per rush. It held teams to 106.8 rushing yards per game, but Gibbs ability in the passing game makes him a double threat against the Rams.

He’s averaging 15.6 touches for 84 yards from scrimmage per game (63 rushing, 21 receiving) and has seen an uptick in production since Week 7 when he established himself as one of the best backs in the league. Over his last 11 games, Gibbs is averaging 16.5 touches for 92 yards from scrimmage per game (69.6 rushing, 22.4 receiving).

Down the stretch Gibbs has utilized more by Johnson both as a runner and receiver and it paid off with him becoming a mismatch nightmare. 

Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Over 79.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Good Sam

Only five rookies finished with at least 10 touchdowns this season and two are on the Lions. Along with Gibbs, Sam LaPorta was one of the most important pieces to Detroit winning the NFC North this season.

The second-round pick out of Iowa had a historically impressive rookie year for a tight end, finishing with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. A knee injury in the final game of the season put some doubt into whether or not LaPorta would play against the Rams, but all signs point to him suiting up.

LaPorta was a full participant in practice on Friday and is listed as questionable, while backups Brock Wright and James Mitchell both also have injury designations. Mitchell is officially out with a hand injury and Wright’s status is unspecified. Point being, Detroit is going to need LaPorta.

He was second in every receiving category on the team behind St. Brown this season and has become a red-zone favorite of Goff’s with at least one touchdown in seven of 17 games. Over the last seven games of the season, LaPorta hauled in six touchdowns and the Rams are the perfect team to utilize him against.

Few defenses have struggled with tight ends as much as Morris’ has this season. The Rams allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends (987) and tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to them (eight). 

With how creative Johnson has been designing plays to get LaPorta the ball near the end zone, the Sam LaPorta odds are good that he’ll have plenty of chances against L.A.

Sam LaPorta prop: Anytime TD (+125 at bet365)