If each game on the Week 16 odds board was a Christmas present, tonight's matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers would be the biggest box at the back of the tree that you save for last.
This potential Super Bowl preview closes out the holiday week and its outcome will shake up the NFL odds when the smoke clears. I break down the latest MNF odds and give my best NFL picks for Ravens vs. 49ers on December 25.
Be sure to also check out our MNF prop picks and Brock Purdy spotlight!
Ravens vs 49ers odds
Ravens vs 49ers predictions
The San Francisco 49ers don’t have many weaknesses. The way they’ve been able to pounce on opponents out of the gate and force foes to play from behind has helped mask any soft spots in this San Francisco machine.
However, if there is one area where the Niners are susceptible to damage, it comes on the ground. San Francisco quietly stinks against the rush, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per handoff while giving up 4.3 yards per carry.
That trick is that because the 49ers flatten their rivals right out of the gate, opposing offenses have to ditch any running game and go heavy on the pass to pick up the pace in a game of “catch-up”.
For the sake of San Francisco bettors, I hope Santa brought some beef up front… because you’re going to need it against the Baltimore Ravens.
Not only are the Ravens the best first-half team in the NFL (so good luck building that big lead) but they’re the No. 1 rushing attack by a large margin.
They sit atop the EPA per carry metric with a league-best success rate per run of 47.3%. Baltimore picks up five yards per carry behind an offensive line rated No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN.
Featured in that ground game is running back Gus Edwards. He’s remained the rock of this backfield, with injuries taking down fellow RBs J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. Edwards was splitting carries with those guys for most of the year but is now the focal point — outside of Lamar Jackson’s QB keepers.
Edwards ran the ball 16 times on 28 snaps in Week 15, picking up 58 yards in the 23-7 win over Jacksonville. Mitchell left the game with a season-ending knee injury in the fourth quarter, which means the “Gus Bus” will be making extra stops in Week 16.
Edwards’ rushing yards prop is currently parked at 41.5 yards at FanDuel. All Week 16 player projections I consulted sit higher than his rushing total, with the ceiling at 57.5 yards rushing. My number is more tempered, coming in just shy of 50 yards from Edwards on Monday night.
Given the matchup with a soft San Francisco run defense and Edwards picking up extra carries with Mitchell out, his rushing yard forecast feels like it should be on the larger end of those predictions.
My best bet: Gus Edwards Over 41.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Ravens vs 49ers same-game parlay
Gus Edwards Over 41.5 rushing yards
Brandon Aiyuk Over 62.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown
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Edwards is the bell cow back and the Ravens will run down a soft San Francisco run-stop unit. All of Gus’ projections point north (pole) of this total on Xmas Day.
Meanwhile, Baltimore does a good job snuffing out the short pass game but is susceptible to some bigger plays. Brandon Aiyuk is projected for as many as 70+ yards by some models.
And crank up “Christmas In Hollis”! Run CMC is chillin’ and coolin’ just like a snowman… in the end zone.
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Ravens vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
This non-conference clash opened with San Francisco laying five points at home and it slimmed as low as -4 before getting bet up to -5.5 for most of the week.
However, with money siding with San Francisco, the host team is as high as -6 as of Friday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 51% of picks are siding with the underdog Ravens.
Baltimore is next in a line of tough tests for the Niners, who have proved their place atop the Super Bowl odds by knocking off Philadelphia, Dallas, and Jacksonville in one-sided squashes.
The Ravens rank alongside the 49ers in terms of two-way dominance, sitting No. 2 in Total DVOA at FTN — just behind San Francisco at No. 1. Baltimore brings a four-game winning streak (3-1 against the spread) to Santa Clara and has tasted defeat only three times all season, with those losses coming by a combined 12 points.
The 49ers are currently riding a six-game winning streak, boasting an average margin of victory of almost 19 points per game. That’s turned out a 4-2 ATS mark despite some lofty point spreads.
The San Francisco defense, which sits No. 7 in EPA allowed per play, could be down a few key bodies for Christmas Day. Defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave are question marks, which comes at a bad time against a run-heavy Ravens playbook.
The Over/Under for this Xmas finale opened at 45.5 points and has been bumped up to 47 points, with Covers Consensus showing 59% of picks on the Over.
San Francisco sits No. 1 in EPA per play and Offensive DVOA, owning a 7-6-1 O/U record on the year, including 3-3 O/U at home. Baltimore ranks No. 6 in EPA per play and No. 4 in DVOA with an Over/Under record of 6-8, including 2-4 O/U on the road.
While these offenses can put up points, they’re also the two most run-heavy playbooks in the league in terms of rushing play percentage. Baltimore and San Francisco also sit 27th and 32nd respectively in terms of second per play, running two very methodical tempos.
Ravens vs 49ers betting trend to know
Baltimore is 19-3-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a point-spread underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. 49ers.
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Ravens vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Monday, December 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | 49ers -5, 46.5 |
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